«Monocle Fund is now ranked best fund in the Quantalys Flexible Prudent Fund category.»


Jean-Paul Raymond, founding partner of Quantalys, Quantalys Inside - December 1, 2020

 

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Performance
Monocle Fund Part A

Etoile Quantalys
Notation Quantalys

April 30, 2020
YTD :+2.16%

Dear Investors,

As of April 30, Monocle (A share) is at +2.16% over 2021.

2020: +6.44%
2019: +6.09%
2018: +0.11%
2017: -1.25%
2016: +6.91%

This week I'm digging in on Pinterest: in the call held after the results publication, CEO Ben Silbermann announced that they expected for the next quarter "flat year-over-year users in the US". An analyst who was doing his job - very rare - asked him to be more precise: "stable year-on-year, so does that mean a decrease compared to last quarter?”. Silbermann's answer: "yes, we noticed a negative correlation between the ending of the lockdown and the time spent on Pinterest". Extraordinary! So, we now have a company with $2bn in sales, that makes little/no money, whose user base is declining in its main market (US 80% of sales), but that is valued at $40bn. Too much.

One step higher: Shopify ($140 Bn), which published its results this week. They proudly announce a "monthly recurring revenue" of $90M. You read that right: $90M, or a small billion on an annual basis. In the eyes of the current market, this justifies a valuation of $140bn! This is not going to end well.

On the other hand, Pfizer ($220 billion) - a major position of the fund (8%) - which published results well above expectations and raised its targets for the coming years, all driven by its products against Covid, does not see its stock price reacting... A market of bozos. But that is not very important: the fundamentals are good, the stock price should follow.

To finish with this market of bozos, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger sounded the alarm this weekend at the Berkshire Hathaway meeting. Their words were violently criticized, notably by the trading site Robinhood, which considers "[...] that people are tired of the Warren Buffetts and Charlie Mungers of the world acting as if they were the only oracles of investing. […] [Robinhood has] opened the doors of the financial markets to ordinary people, deeply destabilizing the old guard who will fight to keep things the same”. In my opinion, having both passed 90, they are not here to start controversies but just to try to warn people that this is not going to end well. Unfortunately, I doubt they will be heard.

Have a good week,

Charles

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