Les Billets de Monocle
- Les Billets de Monocle
« Le punching ball «
Fraîchement arrivé à Paris en sortant de mon pensionnat, je m’étais inscrit avec un copain à un club de boxe française près de la Porte Maillot. Mon objectif...
20 November 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
« Chercher l’intrus »
Si je vous colle ici cette brochette d’investisseurs de légende : Et que je vous demande, parmi ces stockpickers, de me sortir l’intrus, vous allez faire comme...
13 November 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
« Election Night »
Justement, il n’est pas facile de vous sortir un truc intéressant un lendemain d’élections où tous les experts en politique américaine vont sortir autant de papiers. Je risque...
12 November 2024
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« La juge s’habille en Prada »
« - Pourquoi les femmes ont besoin de tant de sacs ? T’en as un, tu fous tout ton bordel dedans et voilà c’est réglé ! – La mode...
30 October 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
« Gambling Man »
Qui était l’homme le plus riche du monde le 15 février 2000 ? Non ce n’était pas Bill Gates (2ème), ni son cofondateur Paul Allen (3ème). Ce n’était...
24 October 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
« Le pistolet »
On sait que le monde se divise en deux catégories : ceux qui ont un pistolet chargé et ceux qui creusent. Le retail aux Etats-Unis, c’est la même...
18 October 2024
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« Le domino »
John Sherman, pas sûr que son nom vous dise quelque chose. Pourtant une loi importante porte son nom aux Etats-Unis, le Sherman Act. Elle date de 1890 et...
09 October 2024
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« Une seule idée »
Chaque semaine, lorsque je commence à rédiger le billet, j’ai bien en tête cette consigne de François Mitterrand, qui tenait lui aussi une chronique hebdomadaire au début de...
09 October 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
« Le Tri »
En violet l’Euro contre Dollar, en orange la volatilité implicite 3 mois de ce même couple de devises. Sur le premier, on voit que le niveau de 1.11...
18 September 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
« Kelly en Images »
Toutes mes excuses pour ce billet tardif, Antoine est en vacances et les marchés bougent donc entre le four, le moulin et le billet c’est le rush. Avec...
13 September 2024
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« Where do we go from now ? »
Il y a un mois le Nikkei perdait 13% en une journée, le SP500 7% en deux jours et la volatilité touchait un plus haut. Il y a une...
05 September 2024
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Enough is enough
‘Friday morning, San Francisco, office of EcoR1 Capital, a three billion dollar biotech fund. Oleg Nodelman comes across this week's Monocle Note...
30 August 2024
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Explanations
This week, after receiving several requests, the note details the fund's performance since the beginning of July. These questions are more than normal: the performance (A share) is...
23 August 2024
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Volatility, retracement and a lesson from 94 years ago
The SP500 peaked on 16 July at 5667. At the time, volatility (VIX) was 13.1%. The correction that followed took the index down to 5119, the...
14 August 2024
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"The predictions of Nostraberus"
"Pinuche is tripping over his grey cells," reveals Le Dodu, "just imagine that this old rag is making up some crushed words for a competition that's all about...
08 August 2024
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Beware Of the Multiple
Three years ago, at this very time, we were preparing for the Patrimonia trade show. We were in the process of printing the map...
30 July 2024
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RanXerox
Normally Antoine looks like a guy you wouldn't hesitate to ask for directions. That wasn't the case last Thursday, when he looked more like RanXerox,...
24 July 2024
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« x2 »
Yesterday (briefly), Aurora Innovation shares touched $5.24. This represents an increase of 104% since we bought it a month and a half ago. This is obviously a...
18 July 2024
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Extrapolation
The SP500 is up 18% since the start of the year, driven largely by a handful of megacaps. The market is paying increasingly high multiples for these...
11 July 2024
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The 60-kilo guys
Let's start with a little riddle this week: it's 1 January 1971 and I suggest you invest $100 in either the classic S&P 500...
03 July 2024
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Duolingo d’or
Luis Von Ahn You may not know the name, but you've all used his products before Luis Von Ahn was born in...
26 June 2024
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Ukrainian Express
I wanted to write this post on the implications of elections for management. But after wandering on the subject, I remembered Buffett, who at the...
19 June 2024
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THE FIRST VEHICLE TO BE AUTONOMOUS BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR
1/ The population of HGV drivers in the US is old. Age of HGV drivers Source: Statista 2/ The population is old because...
12 June 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
Dog head up, dog head down
The Lululemon action is a bit like a yoga class. We've been following Lululemon's success for a while now, so when we've seen it get worse...
04 June 2024
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You Always Hurt The One You Love
Librairie Galignani, rue de Rivoli. I saw this 600-page book entitled ‘YOU ALWAYS HURT THE ONE YOU LOVE’ and wondered what it was all about...
28 May 2024
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China on the road to North Korea
George Magnus is a member of the China Centre at Oxford University. Prior to that, he was chief economist at UBS for twenty years (1995-2016). He is therefore familiar with...
22 May 2024
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So long Mr. Munger
Omaha 5.00 am. It's raining and cold. This is the 3rd year I've travelled to the depths of the United States to attend Berkshire Hathaway's high mass, which has always been led by its two high priests who are almost a hundred years old.
15 May 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
A Radiant Future
It's not the 'passive management system' that's unbeatable, but a handful of stocks over a specific, defined period.
07 May 2024
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Human stupidity: an illustration
At a time when food inflation has just risen by 35% in 4 years, it's admirable to be fighting over the price of an "affordable luxury" handbag.
24 April 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
Is Netflix fantastic?
If we summarise Netflix since 2020, we had a huge boost - which is logical - during the Covid period, with an explosion in users from 167M to 222M...
18 April 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
4 billion kilos
Today we're going to tell you about a company whose products you've already consumed without even knowing it existed. The company is Lamb Weston, and it makes a product so common you'd forget there were giants behind it: chips!
11 April 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
Defensive stocks = rubbish
One of the corollaries of the recent tech craze is that other sectors have been abandoned. Allocation to so-called defensive sectors (healthcare, consumer staples, utilities) has fallen to its lowest level in 20 years.
03 April 2024
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The volumes are wrong!
The volumes we all follow on US equities are wrong, and the reality is much lower than the figures shown. This means that it is one more indicator that is disappearing to track market trends.
21 March 2024
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“What the hell is risk ?”
“There are these two young fish swimming along, and they happen to meet an older fish swimming the other way, who nods at them and says, ‘Morning, boys....
15 March 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
"The big slap"
Last Thursday, Teleperformance's share price took a good slap in the face, like a foot on the skateboard from the 3rd floor landing. The share price fell from €130 to...
08 March 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
Risk and the bubble
The best way to avoid risk is to face it head on. The risk for Nvidia is a valuation bubble following the emergence of Artificial Intelligence. ...
01 March 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
"The red flag is no longer a red flag".
Obelix may have his magic potion, but the Burgundians - like Antoine - have their wine. And the sacred object is not the pot, but rather the bottle....
22 February 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
« Self-service »
At Monocle, we don't shy away from complicated situations, but sometimes it's just too much. This week, we took a look at Frasers, the British distributor, and the story of its founder,...
15 February 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
"There's something rotten in the kingdom of flight".
After Meta's dizzying rise (+20%) last week, on Tuesday I took a look at SNAP to see if this share was just a ripe fruit ready to drop....
08 February 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
« Poster Boy »
Last year, there weren't many IPOs in the Cloud. In fact, there was only one: KLAVIYO, because after...
01 February 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
The fight
I don't know if the most telling image to visualise active management today is the nightmare scenes in Terminator after the machines have taken...
25 January 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
Watch out, it's got a kick
If you're interested in the capital cycle, there's an interesting book to read, Capital Returns by Edward Chancellor. That said, I passed it on to Charles who...
17 January 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
« Known knowns »
Asked in February 2002 about the connections between Saddam Hussein and terrorist organisations, Donald Rumsfeld replied: "There are known knowns, things we know that we...
10 January 2024
- Les Billets de Monocle
The Post-it
I don't know if you remember the scene in Asterix where Abraracurcix, having had too much wild boar, lies down under a tree to recover. A leaf...
22 December 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Still there
Michael Osterholm, head of CIDRAP (Center for Infection Disease Research and Policy), in the United States on 30 November: "COVID-19 is still there and it's still important, even...
18 December 2023
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Our friends the cannibals
We hear about company share buybacks every day, but more often than not they are merely cosmetic and have little effect. However, if used wisely...
07 December 2023
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127 hours
In April 2003, Aron Ralston fell inside the canyon he was exploring. As he fell, he caught his arm between two rocks. After...
29 November 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
The end of the holidays
Every time the central banks raise rates to signal the end of the holiday period, there comes a time when the markets don't want to hear it. This...
17 November 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
"Magnificent Seven: the end of the epic?
You've read everywhere that the rise in the US market this year is due to the "Magnificent Seven": Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. We...
10 November 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Ça balance pas mal à Paris… et ailleurs
On arrive dans la dernière ligne droite de l’année. Les résultats du troisième trimestre sont en grande partie sortis et le moins que l’on puisse dire c’est que...
03 November 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
« Spin-offs are Grrreat ! »
Ci-dessus c’est le graph de l’action WK Kellogg, le roi du corn flakes. Le groupe historique vient de se séparer de son activité américaine en en faisant...
19 October 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Long taux longs
Depuis des années, sur notre partie obligataire nous ne faisions pas grand-chose. Avec les taux à zéro, il y avait peu à gagner, et beaucoup de coups à...
13 October 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
« Les dollars sont dans l’ours en peluche »
Cette femme, c’est Kati Karikó avec son mari et sa fille Susan. Nous sommes en 1985, elle vient d’avoir trente ans et de faire ses valises pour...
04 October 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
« Test de réalité pour une favorite Covid »
La presse a beaucoup parlé ces derniers jours d’Instacart. Créée en 2012 par un ancien d’Amazon, l’entreprise américaine permet aux clients via son application d’envoyer un « personal...
29 September 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
« Dumb Money »
En 2021, au top de la frenzie, j’avais trouvé un indicateur simple qui était l’action Gamestop. La société, spécialiste de la distribution de jeux vidéo, était déjà bien...
21 September 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
« Pleased »
Le billet arrive tard cette semaine parce que je me suis retrouvé empêtré dans mes analyses. Je voulais vous faire un truc simple sur Dollar General, à la...
15 September 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
« Attends, attends… »
3 Janvier 2022, Teleperformance, le leader mondial de la relation client est la star du CAC40. Toujours dirigé par son fondateur, le groupe et ses 400.000 salariés sont...
08 September 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
It's time to get out the umbrella
The indices rise, the media follow and euphoria returns. Meanwhile, I see that: 1. consumer confidence is at an all-time low. The recent publication...
31 August 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Adyen: a 50% drop in three days!
Adyen, a flagship of the European tech sector which entered the STOXX 50 with great fanfare three years ago, has lost half its capitalisation in the space of a few days...
24 August 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Winning by not losing
Investing is a long-term game, and to win, you need to be there at the end of the game. At Monocle, we follow the advice of...
21 August 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Tranquille
La plupart des résultats du Q2 sont sortis. Je voulais vous faire un topo sur Apple, mais Shawn Tully, un des anciens de Fortune, l’a déjà fait. « Le bénéfice...
10 August 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
100% Emotions
August 1, markets are high, rates are high. Generally speaking, they don't work together. How do you decide? By looking at a file in detail. I'll take Netflix, which...
03 August 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Money for nothing
It's no exaggeration to say that streaming has completely infiltrated our lives in recent years. Whether it's music or video, most of us are already...
28 July 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
A good place to fish
It's not a secret: since the start of the year, the performance of the main US indices has been driven by a few big names. The S&P 500 "market...
21 July 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
The Hand of God
Article this week in the Financial Times by Robert Armstrong - one of the old hands - entitled "The Seven Mercenaries". He talks about the 7 stocks that...
18 July 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Long and Good
Bond prices fall when interest rates rise. If I have in my hands an A bond that pays me 3% a year, and tomorrow a...
05 July 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
$339
In September 2018, Apple released version 4 of its Apple Watch. Release price: $399. In September 2020, Apple released version 6 of its Apple Watch....
28 June 2023
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Watching paint dry
Wall Street Journal reporter Jason Zweig recently reprinted a series of articles in which he described the 7 virtues of great investors (which you can find here). Each...
20 June 2023
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The Death of Accounting
In 2016 Baruch Lev released his book "The Death of Accounting". It's a field he knows well: he spent his entire career as a professor of accounting at...
14 June 2023
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Two hundred billion
This is the market capitalization of Hermès. This is unreasonable. For a long time, Hermès was valued at a very high price because it had ...
07 June 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Thinking in bets
We took a short position on Nike via options a few weeks ago, when the stock was trading at $125 (versus $105 today). Like what...
01 June 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Munger Unchained
Ah, the long May weekends, the perfect opportunity to escape for a few days, three weeks after my arrival at Monocle AM. In my case, it was to the United States. And not just anywhere: Omaha, Nebraska.
10 May 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
It's all calm
Above, in green, is the SP500 index, in orange is the implied volatility index (VIX), and in purple is the Open Interest on VIX futures contracts.
04 May 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
There’s a shark in my lipstick ?!
We continue to see emerging opportunities in convertible bonds.
27 April 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
When no one wants it anymore...
1/ Climate: Globally, approximately 50 billion tons of greenhouse gases are emitted each year. Out of this total, livestock accounts for 7 billion tons, which is 14% of the world's CO2 emissions.
19 April 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
It's Clearance Sale Time
After spending several months cooped up, consumers let loose once the pandemic was over. With their pockets full of money, they began to spend lavishly (on clothes, computers, furniture, etc.)
11 April 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
The Gorilla's Dance
"I have a lot of respect for Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Google, and his team. But with what we are releasing today, it will force them to rise and come to the dance. And I want the world to know that we're the ones who made them dance." (Nadella, February 7, 2023).
05 April 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Buying Shorts
After spending our days searching for something to buy, without success, we ended up finding something to sell.
28 March 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Rivian the next Tesla ?
A few years ago, when Tesla was a controversial stock, we invested in its bonds. From a financial perspective, it wasn't clear whether Tesla would succeed.
23 March 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Swipe right and it’s a match!
If the name Match doesn't ring a bell, I'm sure some of you are familiar with several of their brands. And who knows, you might have even met your better half on one of their apps. Fifteen years ago, only 3% of married couples met online, compared to 45% today.
16 March 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Good news about Volkswagen
Last Friday, the Chief Financial Officer of the Volkswagen Group (holding a 6.7% stake) shared the group's expectations for the year 2023. Vehicle sales are projected to increase by 15% to reach 9.5 million units.
08 March 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
The most valuable company of Germany
Exactly 7 years ago, on February 27, 2015, the Financial Times ran the headline: "Volkswagen Warns of No Margin Improvement This Year." Despite this "calm down" from management, Volkswagen's share price reached an all-time high of €225.
01 March 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Gear up, Get Ready, Go!
Optimism is a rare occurrence around here, I know. But I'll try to put it to good use.
21 February 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
An arm and a leg
Two burning questions dominate the current market landscape: 1) Central banks and inflation, and 2) the subsequent impact of the first question on the 2023 markets.
15 February 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Mom, I Missed the Plane
On January 27, we penned our thoughts about Meta after liquidating half of our position: "We maintain strong confidence in the long-term trend, but given the prevailing circumstances, we exercise prudence concerning the forthcoming results." Four days later, we closed the remaining position ahead of Snap's results.
06 February 2023
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An important week
I'm not going to start this post with a pun or a movie reference (which is not typical of me, as you would agree).
30 January 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
21 Years Ago
This year is off to a strong start. But it's nothing compared to 2001. 21 years ago, the Wall Street Journal headline read: « Aggressive action by the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates has helped to revive the Nasdaq Composite Index, which was up 12.2% in January, one of its best Januarys ever. »
27 January 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
The Era of Profit Warnings is Upon Us
We hate to be the bearers of bad news, but the corporate landscape is at odds with the surging markets. This week, we present a concise recap of the latest happenings on the frontlines.
18 January 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Sugar
"Do you still know any buyers today, ones even dumber than you?"
11 January 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
A new year
I wish you all the best for this new year. The 2023 performance started on Monday morning at 9:00 a.m., which means we need to move quickly to analyze the 2022 results, learn the necessary lessons, and position ourselves for the forthcoming 12 months.
04 January 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Thank you!
As we near the end of 2022 – though we must remain cautious given the prevailing volatility in the markets – we wanted to take this final Post before Christmas to express our gratitude.
23 December 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Follow the cash
Le Billet de Monocle - Follow the cash | RSS.com This week, we're following the advice of Warren Buffet. His thesis: a good company creates wealth,...
15 December 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Give me a one-handed Economist
« Donnez-moi un économiste à une main. Tous mes économistes disent 'd'un côté...', puis 'mais d'un autre côté...' ».
08 December 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Valuation Training - Part 2
You've all been waiting for it: here are our insights into last week's valuation Tutorial.
29 November 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Tuto Valo
Zoom, la débâcle. Cours de l’action il y a 2 ans : 427$. Cours de l’action aujourd’hui : 76$. Une chute de 82%.
24 November 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
High Kick
Last Thursday's move on the SP500 (+5.54%), to give an image, was like a guy the size of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar walking into the bar...
17 November 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
It is urgent to wait
The burst of the bubble has begun. The airship in which we, investors, find ourselves, slowly loses altitude. To our great pleasure: the closer we are to the ground, the less brutal the fall.
November 9, 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Only the Paranoids Survive
META is an important position in our fund (5%). After its publication last week, the stock lost a quarter of its value.
02 November 2022
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We Look Closer – Le cas Orpéa
Performance is built by making good deals as well as avoiding bad ones. You all know our motto "We look closer".
27 October 2022
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Deutsche Qualität
Two weeks ago, Porsche went public. With almost 300,000 units sold by 2021, a turnover of 30 billion euros...
18 October 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Bond Kings on the return
"Don't you find me attractive? These are the words that Ms Robinson (Anne Bancroft) utters to Benjamin Braddock (Dustin Hoffman) when she tries to seduce him...
11 October 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Nobel, Price and Statistics
There are three months left until the end of the year. Q3 results start in a two weeks with Netflix. Everyone is talking about inflation, including .....
05 October 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Reserve strategy - Phase 2
As a subscriber to this post, you are most likely aware of the strategy used to manage the Monocle fund. If you are not...
27 September 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Groundhog Day
If you've never seen the film Un Jour Sans Fin (1993) in which Bill Murray plays a weatherman that has to cover the "Groundhog Day" subject...
21 September 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
New Factsheet
Dear Investors, for this week's post, the focus is on the Monocle fund with the Factsheet for August 2022 presenting a new format.
14 September 2022
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Black-out? 🕯️
Autumn 2021: European gas stocks are reduced. The price offered by the Russians is too unattractive to stockpile, and buyers start to look for...
06 September 2022
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A personal note
For those of you who don't know (a majority I imagine), I finished my studies at Paris-Dauphine a little over a year ago.
30 August 2022
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Return Of The Jedi
For those of you who don't have the reference, the title of this post echoes the third part of the first Star Wars trilogy...
23 August 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Volatility and reserve strategy
Hello, the markets are going up so opportunities are scarce, which leaves us time to work on the rest. I spent some time on the...
17 August 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Pink scenario, black scenario
Hello, I hope this post finds you in good shape in these ever lively August markets. Today we are playing the simulation game: ...
10 August 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Vlad l’empaleur
Most of the Q2 results are now out. There is no simple analysis to be drawn from them: upside and downside surprises.
03 August 2022
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Double trouble
SNAP released its Q2 results on Thursday evening causing a massive exodus of investors. The stock plunged* another 40%! What happened: A...
26 July 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Summer checkpoint
Dear investors, before the avalanche of quarterly results that we will be talking about for a while, we would like to take this opportunity to give a progress report on the fund.
21 July 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
The Dark Side of the Moon of the US Dollar
"Money! New car, caviar, four star, daydream. Think I'll buy me a football team" - in case you don't recognise them, they are the...
12 July 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
SAS enters turbulence
This week we talk about SAS Airlines, the Scandinavian airline. SAS proposed a restructuring plan last February, following the effects of covid. The aim: to reduce the...
05 July 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Destocking in sight 👟
Nike released last night its results for the past quarter. The inventory level reached a record level: $8.4 billion. That's more than...
28 June 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
A new rabbit out of the hat?🐇
A tanker truck. That's about the size of the wizard's hat of one of Europe's most important financial institutions: the ECB. In the category...
21 June 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
It's the end of vacations 🌴
Y Combinator (YC), the world's most prestigious start-up incubator (with Airbnb, Coinbase and Reddit on its roster), is raising the alarm with its...
14 June 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Statement
Last name : Dimon First name : Jamie Nickname : The Diamond Age : 66 years old Distinguishing feature : Always wears the same cufflinks Position : CEO of...
07 June 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
New job for a new life? Hurry up...
You could already see yourself there, with a latte in your right hand and a MacBook air in your left, ready to start your new job in this company...
31 May 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Stop messing around
It's good to be a CEO of a large company. A little too much, in our opinion. In 2021, the CEO of a publicly traded U.S. company is paid on average almost 15...
23 May 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
We got Eloned
Elon Musk, who used to be "our good friend Elon Musk", has done a 180 on Twitter: he doesn't know if he wants to buy anymore. The reason given was that...
18 May 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Twitter - Elon Musk : Take it or Leave it
In these seismic markets, any profit is good to take, no matter how big. At Monocle, small gains with small risk, we take. So when we are...
10 May 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Amazon: it's going to be short
Amazon released its quarterly results last Thursday. Here's the overview by division (operating income): Amazon North America: $1.6 Billion loss Amazon International...
03 May 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Netflix stock: defeated by K.O.
The company's value last November: $300 billion The company's value today: $85 billion An exceptional 70% drop. Could we have anticipated it? Numerous indications...
27 April 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
A little trip to the Bellagio?
A white Rolls strolls slowly, in a biblical silence - disturbed only by the sound of the engine and the squealing of the tires on the asphalt. It’s very hot...
19 April 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
The split ✂️
Normally a split is when the price of a stock has risen a lot, we redivide the old stock into X new ones, so that the price is affordable again for...
12 April 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
How to beat the high cost of living?
Let me tell you the story of John, the protagonist of our story, born in the beautiful state of Wisconsin in the United States (more precisely on the edge of the cold waters of the...
05 April 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Make your life easier
A little over a year ago, we were in the waiting room of the hospital. The doctor comes in and says, " It' s for now ". I grabbed the prepared bag...
30 March 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
The Tyrolean Ramparts
At Monocle, for several months now, our fixed income pocket has been mainly made up of very short-term government bonds. Short maturity means low yield, so why this choice?
22 March 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Checkpoint : where are the "Sexy Stocks" ?
We have often denounced how irrational some valuations had become, far from any fundamentals and overbought by an overheated market. Today, where are...
15 March 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Until the last drop...
Last night, at the opening of the American market, the price of WTI oil touched $130/barrel. The highest level since...
07 March 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
"This country is at war..."
It was in these explicit terms that Neville Chamberlain (British Prime Minister) officially declared the United Kingdom at war with Germany on September 3, 1939. The situation at that time...
28 February 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Chinese Wall in Covid weather
Just this morning, President Xi Jinping was hammering that the city of Hong Kong must put in place "all necessary measures" to combat the epidemic...
16 February 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Amazon 1 – Facebook 0
At the end of this earnings season, Facebook went out on a stretcher (-25%), Amazon under the cheers (+15%). In valorization, it is now $600 Bn for Facebook...
09 February 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
When markets play Russian roulette
On leverage, Warren Buffet once said: "If you're smart, you don't need it; and if you're stupid...
01 February 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
End Of the Movie For Netflix
The stock drops 22% on the announcement of Q4 results. "Netflix disappoints in terms of new subscribers, raising doubts about its ability to grow."....
25 January 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Growth and Disillusionment
In February 2021, Peter Sellis, an obscure product manager at Snapchat, announced in an investor presentation that Snapchat had "years of growth in excess of 50% ahead of it." The..
19 January 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
What to do?
Dear readers, dear investors, After an exceptional year 2021 on the markets, during which so many records were broken, it seems to be time to make...
11 January 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
L'Oréal, because you are worth it
The world's number 1 cosmetics company is now paying 55x earnings. This morning, the L'Oréal share is back on its highs, at 430€. An increase of +70% since...
03 January 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
The revolutionary business of auto leasing
Leverage, the use of debt to increase investment capacity, is down nearly 10% in January, according to FINRA statistics.
14 December 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
The Saint Bartholomew's Day of the Analysts
In the French movie "Le Pacha", Jean Gabin, who plays a police commissioner who is fed up with the underworld, calls for a Saint-Bartholomew's Day for mobsters. Me, when...
07 December 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Veggie Steaks and Sausages: What do we think?
Beyond Meat is the American manufacturer of meat substitute products based on vegetable proteins: understand "Sliced without chicken". At first glance and after having passed...
01 December 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
I told you in a previous post: macroeconomics is not our primary expertise. However, with such an explosive cocktail - explosive inflation, interest rates at the level of the...
22 November 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Orange, the 1=1+1 Theory?
[Reserved for an informed audience: we're going to add up] 🤓 You probably know the 1+1=3 theory. One company merges with another, the new group...
16 November 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
The Grand Casino
On March 11, I wrote: "Here's our business process today: 1/ Turn on the screen; 2/ Watch the Gamestop course; ...
09 November 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Pfizer, The Breach of the Century
Pfizer published this morning its 3rd quarter results and specified its forecasts for the year 2021: - $82 billion in sales - $23 billion...
02 November 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Small Personal Victory
September 24, 2021: Petrofac (2% of the fund) and the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) announce that they have reached an agreement that ends 4 years of investigation. October 4,...
25 October 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Back To The Future
"See you later... much later!" is how Professor Brown says goodbye to Marty McFly as he leaves for a trip...
18 October 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Opening Of The Quarterly Ball
The quarterly results ball will open in a few days. Each company will publish its accounts and compare itself to the previous year to display its growth rate: a metric...
11 October 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Don't Have Money in the Market You Might Need
At Patrimonia last week, I kept telling everyone who walked by our booth that the current level of the Shiller PE...
04 October 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Good News About Petrofac
Petrofac (6% of our fund) announced on Friday that it had reached a settlement with the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) acknowledging their guilt in "failing to prevent" acts...
28 September 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
LVMH, Correction You Say?
At €630, LVMH shares are trading 11% lower than their historical high of mid-August, €710. The financial press is therefore talking about a correction. LVMH is now valued at 310...
21 September 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
EasyJet, Fasten Your Seatbelts : -15% Today
During my few flying sessions over Ile d'Yeu, during the stall exercises - nerve-wracking moments during which my instructor asked me if I had any...
13 September 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
All-In On Advertising!
In the second quarter of 2021, Facebook charged 47% more for its advertising offerings than it did 3 months earlier. At Google, the "price per click" jumped 51%. And...
07 September 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Peloton goes off the rails
The more athletic among you have probably already heard of - or are even savvy customers of - Peloton, the company launched in 2012 that offers bikes...
31 August 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
I Hope You Like The Heights
August 23, 2021, the S&P 500 approaches 4500 points, its historical high. In August 2020, after the health crisis rebound, it was 3350 points: +34%...
24 August 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Summer Game
It's summertime, time to check off crossword puzzles and sudokus on a mattress by the beach. And at Monocle, we want to contribute to the effort...
17 August 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Pfizer: 1 Billion Doses
Pfizer has just passed the hallucinating milestone of 1 billion doses of vaccine distributed. The pre-covid Pfizer is $42 billion in sales and...
10 August 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Amazon: Complicated Landing
On Friday, after the release of its results, Amazon lost 7.5% over the session. This is its second biggest drop in ten years*. So we would expect a...
03 August 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Shiller's PE (Nobel Prize In Economics)
One of the most frequently used metrics to determine the overall level of valuation of financial markets is Robert Shiller's PE. Shiller in a few words: economist...
27 July 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
50 Dollars
Fifty dollars is the average price paid per user for big acquisitions in Tech. Here are the details: 2006: Google buys YouTube for $1.7 Bn with...
19 July 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
The Weather Is Not Good: Let's Stay Covered!
One of the big topics in the macroeconomic news is inflation. To be perfectly honest, this is not our primary expertise but the very good quarterly review...
16 July 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
History Repeats Itself
Good evening, Tonight I want to share with you the excellent analysis of GMO Asset Management (New York fund managed by the famous permabear Jeremy Grantham that we appreciate for the quality of...
09 July 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
We Look Closer, Case Study With Capgemini
Capgemini, excerpts from April 29, 2021 Q1 revenue press release: "Capgemini Group reported Q1 2021 revenue of...
01 July 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Time To Talk
No inspiration for this post: in all honesty, I don't understand the level of valuations, nor the speeches heard to explain these levels. And as you...
24 June 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Back home
Back after a not so easy move back from England to France in the middle of the pandemic. The markets remain atonic: almost nothing is happening. I'm rereading the...
17 June 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Nice Transaction
Yesterday we closed our small line Translate Bio (0.5% of the fund) - a biotech company specializing in the development of messenger RNA-based drugs - which...
10 June 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Cautious positioning
The fund's positioning remains cautious, which we believe is appropriate with markets at historical highs and valuations...
27 May 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Meditate
Regarding the fund, the acquisition of M6 by TF1 is excellent news. TF1 was already a good deal for us - the dividend representing a yield above...
20 May 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Market of Fools!
This week I'm pushing the envelope on Pinterest: in the call held after the earnings release, CEO Ben Silbermann announced that they were expecting for the next...
05 May 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Pinterest: Deception
Pinterest released disappointing results on Tuesday night. On Wednesday, the stock was down 14% (noting that this only takes it back to its price at the beginning of the year). I had...
29 April 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Netflix: It's Getting Complicated
Three of our companies published their results at the beginning of the week: Danone, Petrofac and Orange. At Danone (4% of the fund): results in line with our expectations....
22 April 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Q1 Results Release
The fund has been rising since the beginning of April, led by Petrofac which recovered +35% over the month to return to its February level. This rise is partly due to the fact that the fund has...
15 April 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Apple : Enemy N°1
Meeting on Clubhouse (the new social network), Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook - worth $830 billion), Daniel Ek (Spotify, the world's leading music site - worth $51 billion) and...
25 March 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Danone&Faber, TF1&M6, Petrofac
News on several of our lines these days: Danone (5% of the fund): departure of Emmanuel Faber. No opinion on the board's decision to thank him. From a point of view of...
17 March 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Short & Efficient
Here is our business process today: 1/ Turn on the screen; 2/ Watch the Gamestop price; 3/ If this number is higher than $20, turn off the screen....
11 March 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
SLOW DOWN
For some companies, the pandemic has had a more than positive effect on their bottom line. Their stock prices followed suit. That effect has now passed. The...
03 March 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
APPLE: NO
... No, it's not progressing. I've seen the headlines "APPLE: REVENUES ABOVE $100 BILLION IN LAST QUARTER" pass by like you. But the explanation is simple:...
25 February 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
New wave in the US ?
The media announce that the pandemic is behind us: the number of cases is decreasing every day in the US + the arrival of vaccines. But if we listen to Michael Osterholm, the...
12 February 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Pinterest Episode 2: Results Release
There is a lot of buzz about the U.S. indices posting all-time highs these days. But given the level of dispersion, I think it's safer to analyze the lines...
05 February 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Gamestop: Revealing the market's folly?
It will not have escaped your attention that we are living in extraordinary times. In terms of health, politics, economics and the market, there are few...
04 February 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Pinterest The Return?
The drop is due to volatility on Petrofac: the stock lost 15% last week, but has recovered +17% since Monday. Our position, presented last week, does not...
28 January 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Petrofac Update
On Friday Petrofac fell by 30%. An impressive figure, but one that only brings the stock back to where it was two months ago. The news that caused this drop was...
19 January 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
#Critical Sense
The main argument of those who refute the idea of a bubble is that with rates low, stocks are worth more. Yet a company like SAMSUNG, whose...
14 January 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Zoom On Zoom
Zoom is now worth $130 billion, the same as Facebook was at the end of 2013. At the time, Facebook was earning $1 billion per quarter and held $11 billion in cash. Today, Zoom...
24 December 2020
- Les Billets de Monocle
Covid 19 Vs Restaurants
Covid Vs Darden: The vaccine will be here in a while, but for now the virus is progressing. In the US, the number of daily deaths just surpassed the...
10 December 2020
- Les Billets de Monocle
The Nikola Case
It is difficult to understand what is happening now if we look at the evolution of the indices, and more enlightening to look in detail at a particular case. So let's take a look at...
02 December 2020
