Les Billets de Monocle
- Les Billets de Monocle
Réduction de voilure
Cette semaine le fonds repasse positif sur 2023. Nous restons cependant nettement en retard sur la catégorie – autour de +3% selon Quantalys. Elle est tirée par des...
24 May 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Munger Unchained
Ah les longs week-ends de mai, l’occasion idéale pour s’échapper quelques jours 3 semaines après mon arrivée chez Monocle AM. Pour ma part c’était aux Etats-Unis. Et pas...
10 May 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Tout est calme.
Ci-dessus en vert l’indice SP500, en orange l’indice de volatilité implicite (VIX) et en violet l’Open Interest sur les contrats futures du VIX. Le VIX est calculé...
04 May 2023
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There’s a shark in my lipstick ?!
Nous continuons de voir apparaître des choses à faire dans les obligations convertibles. Cette semaine Amyris, biotech américaine, spécialisée dans la création d’ingrédients à partir de plantes pour...
27 April 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Quand plus personne n’en veut…
3 facteurs : 1/ Climat : au niveau mondial, environ 50 Mds de tonnes de gaz à effet de serre sont émises chaque année. Sur ce total, l’élevage...
19 April 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
C’est l’heure de la braderie
Après avoir passé plusieurs mois enfermés, les consommateurs se sont lâchés à la sortie de la pandémie. Les poches pleines d’argent, ils ont commencé à dépenser sans compter...
11 April 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
La danse du gorille
Le 7 février, Satya Nadella, PDG de Microsoft, présentait la nouvelle fonction de recherche sur Bing basée sur ChatGPT, le logiciel d’intelligence artificielle de la société OpenAI, partenaire...
05 April 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Buying Shorts
A force de passer nos journées à chercher quelque chose à acheter, sans succès, nous avons fini par trouver quelque chose à vendre. Pour un fonds patrimonial comme...
28 March 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Rivian the next Tesla ?
Il y a quelques années, quand Tesla était une action controversée, nous avions acheté des obligations. D’un point de vue financier, il n’était pas évident que Tesla y...
23 March 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Swipe right and it’s a match!
Parlons aujourd’hui de notre ligne obligataire Match (1% du fonds) ! Si le nom Match ne vous évoque rien, je suis sûre que certains d’entre vous connaissent plusieurs de...
16 March 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Bonne nouvelle sur Volkswagen
Vendredi dernier, le directeur financier du groupe Volkswagen (ligne à 6.7% du fonds) s’est exprimé sur les attentes du groupe pour l’année 2023. Les ventes de véhicules devraient...
08 March 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
The most valuable company of Germany
Il y a exactement 7 ans, le 27 février 2015, le Financial Times titrait: « Volkswagen avertit: pas d’amélioration des marges cette année ». Malgré ce « calm down » venant du...
01 March 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
A vos sacs, prêts, partez!
Rare chez nous – oui je le sais – de l’optimisme. Je vais essayer d’en faire bon usage. Nous avons initié plusieurs positions en portefeuille depuis la semaine...
21 February 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
An arm and a leg
Deux grandes questions ces jours-ci sur les marchés: 1) les banques centrales et l’inflation et 2) les conséquences de la question 1 sur les marchés en 2023. Pour ma...
15 February 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Maman, j’ai raté l’avion
⚠️La deuxième édition du Canap’ de Monocle c’est mercredi 8 février à 17h30 (inscription ici) ⚠️ Le 27 janvier, voici ce que l’on écrivait à propos de Meta,...
06 February 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Une semaine importante
Pas de jeu de mot ou de référence cinématographique pour débuter ce billet (ce qui n’est pas dans mes habitudes, vous en conviendrez). Mais plutôt un constat :...
30 January 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
21 Years Ago
Cette année ça démarre fort. Mais ce n’est rien à côté de 2001. Il y a 21 ans, le Wall Street Journal titrait: « Aggressive action by the Federal...
27 January 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Il est venu le temps des Profit Warning
On ne veut pas plomber l’ambiance, mais le newsflow des sociétés est en contradiction avec ces marchés qui montent. Cette semaine, on vous fait un petit récapitulatif des nouvelles du front.
18 January 2023
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Le Sucre
"Mais tu en connais encore des acheteurs aujourd'hui, des encore plus cons que toi?"
11 January 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
A new year
Tous mes vœux pour cette nouvelle année. La performance 2023 a débuté lundi matin à 9h00, ce qui implique qu'il faut aller vite pour faire l'analyse des résultats 2022; en tirer les leçons nécessaires et se positionner pour les 12 mois qui viennent.
04 January 2023
- Les Billets de Monocle
Merci !
Chère lectrice, cher lecteur, L’année 2022 touche à sa fin – attention toutefois à la dernière semaine de cotation vu la nervosité ambiante – et nous tenions à...
23 December 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Follow the cash
Le Billet de Monocle – Follow the cash | RSS.com Cette semaine, on suit les conseils de Warren Buffet. Sa thèse : une belle entreprise crée de la...
15 December 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Give me a one-handed Economist
“Give me a one-handed Economist. All my economists say, 'on the one hand...', then 'but on the other...”
08 December 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Valuation Training - Part 2
You've all been waiting for it: here are our insights into last week's valuation Tutorial.
29 November 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Tuto Valo
Zoom, la débâcle. Cours de l’action il y a 2 ans : 427$. Cours de l’action aujourd’hui : 76$. Une chute de 82%.
24 November 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
High Kick
Last Thursday's move on the SP500 (+5.54%), to give an image, was like a guy the size of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar walking into the bar...
17 November 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
It is urgent to wait
The burst of the bubble has begun. The airship in which we, investors, find ourselves, slowly loses altitude. To our great pleasure: the closer we are to the ground, the less brutal the fall.
November 9, 2022
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Only the Paranoids Survive
META is an important position in our fund (5%). After its publication last week, the stock lost a quarter of its value.
02 November 2022
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We Look Closer – Le cas Orpéa
Performance is built by making good deals as well as avoiding bad ones. You all know our motto "We look closer".
27 October 2022
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Deutsche Qualität
Two weeks ago, Porsche went public. With almost 300,000 units sold by 2021, a turnover of 30 billion euros...
18 October 2022
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Bond Kings on the return
"Don't you find me attractive? These are the words that Ms Robinson (Anne Bancroft) utters to Benjamin Braddock (Dustin Hoffman) when she tries to seduce him...
11 October 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Nobel, Price and Statistics
There are three months left until the end of the year. Q3 results start in a two weeks with Netflix. Everyone is talking about inflation, including .....
05 October 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Reserve strategy - Phase 2
As a subscriber to this post, you are most likely aware of the strategy used to manage the Monocle fund. If you are not...
27 September 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Groundhog Day
If you've never seen the film Un Jour Sans Fin (1993) in which Bill Murray plays a weatherman that has to cover the "Groundhog Day" subject...
21 September 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
New Factsheet
Dear Investors, for this week's post, the focus is on the Monocle fund with the Factsheet for August 2022 presenting a new format.
14 September 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Black-out? 🕯️
Autumn 2021: European gas stocks are reduced. The price offered by the Russians is too unattractive to stockpile, and buyers start to look for...
06 September 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
A personal note
For those of you who don't know (a majority I imagine), I finished my studies at Paris-Dauphine a little over a year ago.
30 August 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Return Of The Jedi
For those of you who don't have the reference, the title of this post echoes the third part of the first Star Wars trilogy...
23 August 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Volatility and reserve strategy
Hello, the markets are going up so opportunities are scarce, which leaves us time to work on the rest. I spent some time on the...
17 August 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Pink scenario, black scenario
Hello, I hope this post finds you in good shape in these ever lively August markets. Today we are playing the simulation game: ...
10 August 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Vlad l’empaleur
Most of the Q2 results are now out. There is no simple analysis to be drawn from them: upside and downside surprises.
03 August 2022
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Double trouble
SNAP released its Q2 results on Thursday evening causing a massive exodus of investors. The stock plunged* another 40%! What happened: A...
26 July 2022
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Summer checkpoint
Dear investors, before the avalanche of quarterly results that we will be talking about for a while, we would like to take this opportunity to give a progress report on the fund.
21 July 2022
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The Dark Side of the Moon of the US Dollar
"Money! New car, caviar, four star, daydream. Think I'll buy me a football team" - in case you don't recognise them, they are the...
12 July 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
SAS enters turbulence
This week we talk about SAS Airlines, the Scandinavian airline. SAS proposed a restructuring plan last February, following the effects of covid. The aim: to reduce the...
05 July 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Destocking in sight 👟
Nike released last night its results for the past quarter. The inventory level reached a record level: $8.4 billion. That's more than...
28 June 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
A new rabbit out of the hat?🐇
A tanker truck. That's about the size of the wizard's hat of one of Europe's most important financial institutions: the ECB. In the category...
21 June 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
It's the end of vacations 🌴
Y Combinator (YC), the world's most prestigious start-up incubator (with Airbnb, Coinbase and Reddit on its roster), is raising the alarm with its...
14 June 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Statement
Last name : Dimon First name : Jamie Nickname : The Diamond Age : 66 years old Distinguishing feature : Always wears the same cufflinks Position : CEO of...
07 June 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
New job for a new life? Hurry up...
You could already see yourself there, with a latte in your right hand and a MacBook air in your left, ready to start your new job in this company...
31 May 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Stop messing around
It's good to be a CEO of a large company. A little too much, in our opinion. In 2021, the CEO of a publicly traded U.S. company is paid on average almost 15...
23 May 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
We got Eloned
Elon Musk, who used to be "our good friend Elon Musk", has done a 180 on Twitter: he doesn't know if he wants to buy anymore. The reason given was that...
18 May 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Twitter - Elon Musk : Take it or Leave it
In these seismic markets, any profit is good to take, no matter how big. At Monocle, small gains with small risk, we take. So when we are...
10 May 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Amazon: it's going to be short
Amazon released its quarterly results last Thursday. Here's the overview by division (operating income): Amazon North America: $1.6 Billion loss Amazon International...
03 May 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Netflix stock: defeated by K.O.
The company's value last November: $300 billion The company's value today: $85 billion An exceptional 70% drop. Could we have anticipated it? Numerous indications...
27 April 2022
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A little trip to the Bellagio?
A white Rolls strolls slowly, in a biblical silence - disturbed only by the sound of the engine and the squealing of the tires on the asphalt. It’s very hot...
19 April 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
The split ✂️
Normally a split is when the price of a stock has risen a lot, we redivide the old stock into X new ones, so that the price is affordable again for...
12 April 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
How to beat the high cost of living?
Let me tell you the story of John, the protagonist of our story, born in the beautiful state of Wisconsin in the United States (more precisely on the edge of the cold waters of the...
05 April 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Make your life easier
A little over a year ago, we were in the waiting room of the hospital. The doctor comes in and says, " It' s for now ". I grabbed the prepared bag...
30 March 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
The Tyrolean Ramparts
At Monocle, for several months now, our fixed income pocket has been mainly made up of very short-term government bonds. Short maturity means low yield, so why this choice?
22 March 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Checkpoint : where are the "Sexy Stocks" ?
We have often denounced how irrational some valuations had become, far from any fundamentals and overbought by an overheated market. Today, where are...
15 March 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Until the last drop...
Last night, at the opening of the American market, the price of WTI oil touched $130/barrel. The highest level since...
07 March 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
"This country is at war..."
It was in these explicit terms that Neville Chamberlain (British Prime Minister) officially declared the United Kingdom at war with Germany on September 3, 1939. The situation at that time...
28 February 2022
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Chinese Wall in Covid weather
Just this morning, President Xi Jinping was hammering that the city of Hong Kong must put in place "all necessary measures" to combat the epidemic...
16 February 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
Amazon 1 – Facebook 0
At the end of this earnings season, Facebook went out on a stretcher (-25%), Amazon under the cheers (+15%). In valorization, it is now $600 Bn for Facebook...
09 February 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
When markets play Russian roulette
On leverage, Warren Buffet once said: "If you're smart, you don't need it; and if you're stupid...
01 February 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
End Of the Movie For Netflix
The stock drops 22% on the announcement of Q4 results. "Netflix disappoints in terms of new subscribers, raising doubts about its ability to grow."....
25 January 2022
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Growth and Disillusionment
In February 2021, Peter Sellis, an obscure product manager at Snapchat, announced in an investor presentation that Snapchat had "years of growth in excess of 50% ahead of it." The..
19 January 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
What to do?
Dear readers, dear investors, After an exceptional year 2021 on the markets, during which so many records were broken, it seems to be time to make...
11 January 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
L'Oréal, because you are worth it
The world's number 1 cosmetics company is now paying 55x earnings. This morning, the L'Oréal share is back on its highs, at 430€. An increase of +70% since...
03 January 2022
- Les Billets de Monocle
The revolutionary business of auto leasing
Leverage, the use of debt to increase investment capacity, is down nearly 10% in January, according to FINRA statistics.
14 December 2021
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The Saint Bartholomew's Day of the Analysts
In the French movie "Le Pacha", Jean Gabin, who plays a police commissioner who is fed up with the underworld, calls for a Saint-Bartholomew's Day for mobsters. Me, when...
07 December 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Veggie Steaks and Sausages: What do we think?
Beyond Meat is the American manufacturer of meat substitute products based on vegetable proteins: understand "Sliced without chicken". At first glance and after having passed...
01 December 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
I told you in a previous post: macroeconomics is not our primary expertise. However, with such an explosive cocktail - explosive inflation, interest rates at the level of the...
22 November 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Orange, the 1=1+1 Theory?
[Reserved for an informed audience: we're going to add up] 🤓 You probably know the 1+1=3 theory. One company merges with another, the new group...
16 November 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
The Grand Casino
On March 11, I wrote: "Here's our business process today: 1/ Turn on the screen; 2/ Watch the Gamestop course; ...
09 November 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Pfizer, The Breach of the Century
Pfizer published this morning its 3rd quarter results and specified its forecasts for the year 2021: - $82 billion in sales - $23 billion...
02 November 2021
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Small Personal Victory
September 24, 2021: Petrofac (2% of the fund) and the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) announce that they have reached an agreement that ends 4 years of investigation. October 4,...
25 October 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Back To The Future
"See you later... much later!" is how Professor Brown says goodbye to Marty McFly as he leaves for a trip...
18 October 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Opening Of The Quarterly Ball
The quarterly results ball will open in a few days. Each company will publish its accounts and compare itself to the previous year to display its growth rate: a metric...
11 October 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Don't Have Money in the Market You Might Need
At Patrimonia last week, I kept telling everyone who walked by our booth that the current level of the Shiller PE...
04 October 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Good News About Petrofac
Petrofac (6% of our fund) announced on Friday that it had reached a settlement with the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) acknowledging their guilt in "failing to prevent" acts...
28 September 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
LVMH, Correction You Say?
At €630, LVMH shares are trading 11% lower than their historical high of mid-August, €710. The financial press is therefore talking about a correction. LVMH is now valued at 310...
21 September 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
EasyJet, Fasten Your Seatbelts : -15% Today
During my few flying sessions over Ile d'Yeu, during the stall exercises - nerve-wracking moments during which my instructor asked me if I had any...
13 September 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
All-In On Advertising!
In the second quarter of 2021, Facebook charged 47% more for its advertising offerings than it did 3 months earlier. At Google, the "price per click" jumped 51%. And...
07 September 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Peloton goes off the rails
The more athletic among you have probably already heard of - or are even savvy customers of - Peloton, the company launched in 2012 that offers bikes...
31 August 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
I Hope You Like The Heights
August 23, 2021, the S&P 500 approaches 4500 points, its historical high. In August 2020, after the health crisis rebound, it was 3350 points: +34%...
24 August 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Summer Game
It's summertime, time to check off crossword puzzles and sudokus on a mattress by the beach. And at Monocle, we want to contribute to the effort...
17 August 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Pfizer: 1 Billion Doses
Pfizer has just passed the hallucinating milestone of 1 billion doses of vaccine distributed. The pre-covid Pfizer is $42 billion in sales and...
10 August 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Amazon: Complicated Landing
On Friday, after the release of its results, Amazon lost 7.5% over the session. This is its second biggest drop in ten years*. So we would expect a...
03 August 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Shiller's PE (Nobel Prize In Economics)
One of the most frequently used metrics to determine the overall level of valuation of financial markets is Robert Shiller's PE. Shiller in a few words: economist...
27 July 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
50 Dollars
Fifty dollars is the average price paid per user for big acquisitions in Tech. Here are the details: 2006: Google buys YouTube for $1.7 Bn with...
19 July 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
The Weather Is Not Good: Let's Stay Covered!
One of the big topics in the macroeconomic news is inflation. To be perfectly honest, this is not our primary expertise but the very good quarterly review...
16 July 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
History Repeats Itself
Good evening, Tonight I want to share with you the excellent analysis of GMO Asset Management (New York fund managed by the famous permabear Jeremy Grantham that we appreciate for the quality of...
09 July 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
We Look Closer, Case Study With Capgemini
Capgemini, excerpts from April 29, 2021 Q1 revenue press release: "Capgemini Group reported Q1 2021 revenue of...
01 July 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Time To Talk
No inspiration for this post: in all honesty, I don't understand the level of valuations, nor the speeches heard to explain these levels. And as you...
24 June 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Back home
Back after a not so easy move back from England to France in the middle of the pandemic. The markets remain atonic: almost nothing is happening. I'm rereading the...
17 June 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Nice Transaction
Yesterday we closed our small line Translate Bio (0.5% of the fund) - a biotech company specializing in the development of messenger RNA-based drugs - which...
10 June 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Cautious positioning
The fund's positioning remains cautious, which we believe is appropriate with markets at historical highs and valuations...
27 May 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Meditate
Regarding the fund, the acquisition of M6 by TF1 is excellent news. TF1 was already a good deal for us - the dividend representing a yield above...
20 May 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Market of Fools!
This week I'm pushing the envelope on Pinterest: in the call held after the earnings release, CEO Ben Silbermann announced that they were expecting for the next...
05 May 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Pinterest: Deception
Pinterest released disappointing results on Tuesday night. On Wednesday, the stock was down 14% (noting that this only takes it back to its price at the beginning of the year). I had...
29 April 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Netflix: It's Getting Complicated
Three of our companies published their results at the beginning of the week: Danone, Petrofac and Orange. At Danone (4% of the fund): results in line with our expectations....
22 April 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Q1 Results Release
The fund has been rising since the beginning of April, led by Petrofac which recovered +35% over the month to return to its February level. This rise is partly due to the fact that the fund has...
15 April 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Apple : Enemy N°1
Meeting on Clubhouse (the new social network), Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook - worth $830 billion), Daniel Ek (Spotify, the world's leading music site - worth $51 billion) and...
25 March 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Danone&Faber, TF1&M6, Petrofac
News on several of our lines these days: Danone (5% of the fund): departure of Emmanuel Faber. No opinion on the board's decision to thank him. From a point of view of...
17 March 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Short & Efficient
Here is our business process today: 1/ Turn on the screen; 2/ Watch the Gamestop price; 3/ If this number is higher than $20, turn off the screen....
11 March 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
SLOW DOWN
For some companies, the pandemic has had a more than positive effect on their bottom line. Their stock prices followed suit. That effect has now passed. The...
03 March 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
APPLE: NO
... No, it's not progressing. I've seen the headlines "APPLE: REVENUES ABOVE $100 BILLION IN LAST QUARTER" pass by like you. But the explanation is simple:...
25 February 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
New wave in the US ?
The media announce that the pandemic is behind us: the number of cases is decreasing every day in the US + the arrival of vaccines. But if we listen to Michael Osterholm, the...
12 February 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Pinterest Episode 2: Results Release
There is a lot of buzz about the U.S. indices posting all-time highs these days. But given the level of dispersion, I think it's safer to analyze the lines...
05 February 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Gamestop: Revealing the market's folly?
It will not have escaped your attention that we are living in extraordinary times. In terms of health, politics, economics and the market, there are few...
04 February 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Pinterest The Return?
The drop is due to volatility on Petrofac: the stock lost 15% last week, but has recovered +17% since Monday. Our position, presented last week, does not...
28 January 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Petrofac Update
On Friday Petrofac fell by 30%. An impressive figure, but one that only brings the stock back to where it was two months ago. The news that caused this drop was...
19 January 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
#Critical Sense
The main argument of those who refute the idea of a bubble is that with rates low, stocks are worth more. Yet a company like SAMSUNG, whose...
14 January 2021
- Les Billets de Monocle
Zoom On Zoom
Zoom is now worth $130 billion, the same as Facebook was at the end of 2013. At the time, Facebook was earning $1 billion per quarter and held $11 billion in cash. Today, Zoom...
24 December 2020
- Les Billets de Monocle
Covid 19 Vs Restaurants
Covid Vs Darden: The vaccine will be here in a while, but for now the virus is progressing. In the US, the number of daily deaths just surpassed the...
10 December 2020
- Les Billets de Monocle
The Nikola Case
It is difficult to understand what is happening now if we look at the evolution of the indices, and more enlightening to look in detail at a particular case. So let's take a look at...
02 December 2020
