Les Billets de Monocle

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Une semaine importante

    Pas de jeu de mot ou de référence cinématographique pour débuter ce billet (ce qui n’est pas dans mes habitudes, vous en conviendrez). Mais plutôt un constat :...

    30 January 2023

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    21 Years Ago

    Cette année ça démarre fort. Mais ce n’est rien à côté de 2001. Il y a 21 ans, le Wall Street Journal titrait: « Aggressive action by the Federal...

    27 January 2023

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Il est venu le temps des Profit Warning

    On ne veut pas plomber l’ambiance, mais le newsflow des sociétés est en contradiction avec ces marchés qui montent. Cette semaine, on vous fait un petit récapitulatif des nouvelles du front.

    18 January 2023

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    Le Sucre

    "Mais tu en connais encore des acheteurs aujourd'hui, des encore plus cons que toi?"

    11 January 2023

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    A new year

    Tous mes vœux pour cette nouvelle année. La performance 2023 a débuté lundi matin à 9h00, ce qui implique qu'il faut aller vite pour faire l'analyse des résultats 2022; en tirer les leçons nécessaires et se positionner pour les 12 mois qui viennent.

    04 January 2023

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    Merci !

    Chère lectrice, cher lecteur, L’année 2022 touche à sa fin – attention toutefois à la dernière semaine de cotation vu la nervosité ambiante – et nous tenions à...

    23 December 2022

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Follow the cash

    Le Billet de Monocle – Follow the cash | RSS.com Cette semaine, on suit les conseils de Warren Buffet. Sa thèse : une belle entreprise crée de la...

    15 December 2022

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Give me a one-handed Economist

    “Give me a one-handed Economist. All my economists say, 'on the one hand...', then 'but on the other...”

    08 December 2022

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Valuation Training - Part 2

    You've all been waiting for it: here are our insights into last week's valuation Tutorial.

    29 November 2022

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Tuto Valo

    Zoom, la débâcle. Cours de l’action il y a 2 ans : 427$. Cours de l’action aujourd’hui : 76$. Une chute de 82%.

    24 November 2022

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    High Kick

    Last Thursday's move on the SP500 (+5.54%), to give an image, was like a guy the size of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar walking into the bar...

    17 November 2022

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    It is urgent to wait

    The burst of the bubble has begun. The airship in which we, investors, find ourselves, slowly loses altitude. To our great pleasure: the closer we are to the ground, the less brutal the fall.

    November 9, 2022

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    Only the Paranoids Survive

    META is an important position in our fund (5%). After its publication last week, the stock lost a quarter of its value.

    02 November 2022

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    We Look Closer – Le cas Orpéa

    Performance is built by making good deals as well as avoiding bad ones. You all know our motto "We look closer".

    27 October 2022

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    Deutsche Qualität

    Two weeks ago, Porsche went public. With almost 300,000 units sold by 2021, a turnover of 30 billion euros...

    18 October 2022

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    Bond Kings on the return

    "Don't you find me attractive? These are the words that Ms Robinson (Anne Bancroft) utters to Benjamin Braddock (Dustin Hoffman) when she tries to seduce him...

    11 October 2022

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    Nobel, Price and Statistics

    There are three months left until the end of the year. Q3 results start in a two weeks with Netflix. Everyone is talking about inflation, including .....

    05 October 2022

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Reserve strategy - Phase 2

    As a subscriber to this post, you are most likely aware of the strategy used to manage the Monocle fund. If you are not...

    27 September 2022

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Groundhog Day

    If you've never seen the film Un Jour Sans Fin (1993) in which Bill Murray plays a weatherman that has to cover the "Groundhog Day" subject...

    21 September 2022

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    New Factsheet

    Dear Investors, for this week's post, the focus is on the Monocle fund with the Factsheet for August 2022 presenting a new format.

    14 September 2022

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    Black-out? 🕯️

    Autumn 2021: European gas stocks are reduced. The price offered by the Russians is too unattractive to stockpile, and buyers start to look for...

    06 September 2022

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    A personal note

    For those of you who don't know (a majority I imagine), I finished my studies at Paris-Dauphine a little over a year ago.

    30 August 2022

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    Return Of The Jedi

    For those of you who don't have the reference, the title of this post echoes the third part of the first Star Wars trilogy...

    23 August 2022

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    Volatility and reserve strategy

    Hello, the markets are going up so opportunities are scarce, which leaves us time to work on the rest. I spent some time on the...

    17 August 2022

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    Pink scenario, black scenario

    Hello, I hope this post finds you in good shape in these ever lively August markets. Today we are playing the simulation game: ...

    10 August 2022

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    Vlad l’empaleur

    Most of the Q2 results are now out. There is no simple analysis to be drawn from them: upside and downside surprises.

    03 August 2022

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    Double trouble

    SNAP released its Q2 results on Thursday evening causing a massive exodus of investors. The stock plunged* another 40%! What happened: A...

    26 July 2022

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    Summer checkpoint

    Dear investors, before the avalanche of quarterly results that we will be talking about for a while, we would like to take this opportunity to give a progress report on the fund.

    21 July 2022

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    SAS enters turbulence

    This week we talk about SAS Airlines, the Scandinavian airline. SAS proposed a restructuring plan last February, following the effects of covid. The aim: to reduce the...

    05 July 2022

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    Destocking in sight 👟

    Nike released last night its results for the past quarter. The inventory level reached a record level: $8.4 billion. That's more than...

    28 June 2022

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    A new rabbit out of the hat?🐇

    A tanker truck. That's about the size of the wizard's hat of one of Europe's most important financial institutions: the ECB. In the category...

    21 June 2022

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    It's the end of vacations 🌴

    Y Combinator (YC), the world's most prestigious start-up incubator (with Airbnb, Coinbase and Reddit on its roster), is raising the alarm with its...

    14 June 2022

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    Statement

    Last name : Dimon First name : Jamie Nickname : The Diamond Age : 66 years old Distinguishing feature : Always wears the same cufflinks Position : CEO of...

    07 June 2022

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    New job for a new life? Hurry up...

    You could already see yourself there, with a latte in your right hand and a MacBook air in your left, ready to start your new job in this company...

    31 May 2022

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    Stop messing around

    It's good to be a CEO of a large company. A little too much, in our opinion. In 2021, the CEO of a publicly traded U.S. company is paid on average almost 15...

    23 May 2022

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    We got Eloned

    Elon Musk, who used to be "our good friend Elon Musk", has done a 180 on Twitter: he doesn't know if he wants to buy anymore. The reason given was that...

    18 May 2022

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Twitter - Elon Musk : Take it or Leave it

    In these seismic markets, any profit is good to take, no matter how big. At Monocle, small gains with small risk, we take. So when we are...

    10 May 2022

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Amazon: it's going to be short

    Amazon released its quarterly results last Thursday. Here's the overview by division (operating income): Amazon North America: $1.6 Billion loss Amazon International...

    03 May 2022

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    Netflix stock: defeated by K.O.

    The company's value last November: $300 billion The company's value today: $85 billion An exceptional 70% drop. Could we have anticipated it? Numerous indications...

    27 April 2022

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    A little trip to the Bellagio?

    A white Rolls strolls slowly, in a biblical silence - disturbed only by the sound of the engine and the squealing of the tires on the asphalt. It’s very hot...

    19 April 2022

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    The split ✂️

    Normally a split is when the price of a stock has risen a lot, we redivide the old stock into X new ones, so that the price is affordable again for...

    12 April 2022

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    How to beat the high cost of living?

    Let me tell you the story of John, the protagonist of our story, born in the beautiful state of Wisconsin in the United States (more precisely on the edge of the cold waters of the...

    05 April 2022

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Make your life easier

    A little over a year ago, we were in the waiting room of the hospital. The doctor comes in and says, " It' s for now ". I grabbed the prepared bag...

    30 March 2022

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    The Tyrolean Ramparts

    At Monocle, for several months now, our fixed income pocket has been mainly made up of very short-term government bonds. Short maturity means low yield, so why this choice?

    22 March 2022

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    Checkpoint : where are the "Sexy Stocks" ?

    We have often denounced how irrational some valuations had become, far from any fundamentals and overbought by an overheated market. Today, where are...

    15 March 2022

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    Until the last drop...

    Last night, at the opening of the American market, the price of WTI oil touched $130/barrel. The highest level since...

    07 March 2022

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    "This country is at war..."

    It was in these explicit terms that Neville Chamberlain (British Prime Minister) officially declared the United Kingdom at war with Germany on September 3, 1939. The situation at that time...

    28 February 2022

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    Chinese Wall in Covid weather

    Just this morning, President Xi Jinping was hammering that the city of Hong Kong must put in place "all necessary measures" to combat the epidemic...

    16 February 2022

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    Amazon 1 – Facebook 0

    At the end of this earnings season, Facebook went out on a stretcher (-25%), Amazon under the cheers (+15%). In valorization, it is now $600 Bn for Facebook...

    09 February 2022

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    When markets play Russian roulette

    On leverage, Warren Buffet once said: "If you're smart, you don't need it; and if you're stupid...

    01 February 2022

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    End Of the Movie For Netflix

    The stock drops 22% on the announcement of Q4 results. "Netflix disappoints in terms of new subscribers, raising doubts about its ability to grow."....

    25 January 2022

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    Growth and Disillusionment

    In February 2021, Peter Sellis, an obscure product manager at Snapchat, announced in an investor presentation that Snapchat had "years of growth in excess of 50% ahead of it." The..

    19 January 2022

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    What to do?

    Dear readers, dear investors, After an exceptional year 2021 on the markets, during which so many records were broken, it seems to be time to make...

    11 January 2022

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    L'Oréal, because you are worth it

    The world's number 1 cosmetics company is now paying 55x earnings. This morning, the L'Oréal share is back on its highs, at 430€. An increase of +70% since...

    03 January 2022

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    The Saint Bartholomew's Day of the Analysts

    In the French movie "Le Pacha", Jean Gabin, who plays a police commissioner who is fed up with the underworld, calls for a Saint-Bartholomew's Day for mobsters. Me, when...

    07 December 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Veggie Steaks and Sausages: What do we think?

    Beyond Meat is the American manufacturer of meat substitute products based on vegetable proteins: understand "Sliced without chicken". At first glance and after having passed...

    01 December 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

    I told you in a previous post: macroeconomics is not our primary expertise. However, with such an explosive cocktail - explosive inflation, interest rates at the level of the...

    22 November 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Orange, the 1=1+1 Theory?

    [Reserved for an informed audience: we're going to add up] 🤓 You probably know the 1+1=3 theory. One company merges with another, the new group...

    16 November 2021

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    The Grand Casino

    On March 11, I wrote: "Here's our business process today: 1/ Turn on the screen; 2/ Watch the Gamestop course; ...

    09 November 2021

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    Pfizer, The Breach of the Century

    Pfizer published this morning its 3rd quarter results and specified its forecasts for the year 2021: - $82 billion in sales - $23 billion...

    02 November 2021

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    Small Personal Victory

    September 24, 2021: Petrofac (2% of the fund) and the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) announce that they have reached an agreement that ends 4 years of investigation. October 4,...

    25 October 2021

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    Back To The Future

    "See you later... much later!" is how Professor Brown says goodbye to Marty McFly as he leaves for a trip...

    18 October 2021

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    Opening Of The Quarterly Ball

    The quarterly results ball will open in a few days. Each company will publish its accounts and compare itself to the previous year to display its growth rate: a metric...

    11 October 2021

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    Good News About Petrofac

    Petrofac (6% of our fund) announced on Friday that it had reached a settlement with the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) acknowledging their guilt in "failing to prevent" acts...

    28 September 2021

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    LVMH, Correction You Say?

    At €630, LVMH shares are trading 11% lower than their historical high of mid-August, €710. The financial press is therefore talking about a correction. LVMH is now valued at 310...

    21 September 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    EasyJet, Fasten Your Seatbelts : -15% Today

    During my few flying sessions over Ile d'Yeu, during the stall exercises - nerve-wracking moments during which my instructor asked me if I had any...

    13 September 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    All-In On Advertising!

    In the second quarter of 2021, Facebook charged 47% more for its advertising offerings than it did 3 months earlier. At Google, the "price per click" jumped 51%. And...

    07 September 2021

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    Peloton goes off the rails

    The more athletic among you have probably already heard of - or are even savvy customers of - Peloton, the company launched in 2012 that offers bikes...

    31 August 2021

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    I Hope You Like The Heights

    August 23, 2021, the S&P 500 approaches 4500 points, its historical high. In August 2020, after the health crisis rebound, it was 3350 points: +34%...

    24 August 2021

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    Summer Game

    It's summertime, time to check off crossword puzzles and sudokus on a mattress by the beach. And at Monocle, we want to contribute to the effort...

    17 August 2021

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    Pfizer: 1 Billion Doses

    Pfizer has just passed the hallucinating milestone of 1 billion doses of vaccine distributed. The pre-covid Pfizer is $42 billion in sales and...

    10 August 2021

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    Amazon: Complicated Landing

    On Friday, after the release of its results, Amazon lost 7.5% over the session. This is its second biggest drop in ten years*. So we would expect a...

    03 August 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Shiller's PE (Nobel Prize In Economics)

    One of the most frequently used metrics to determine the overall level of valuation of financial markets is Robert Shiller's PE. Shiller in a few words: economist...

    27 July 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    50 Dollars

    Fifty dollars is the average price paid per user for big acquisitions in Tech. Here are the details: 2006: Google buys YouTube for $1.7 Bn with...

    19 July 2021

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    The Weather Is Not Good: Let's Stay Covered!

    One of the big topics in the macroeconomic news is inflation. To be perfectly honest, this is not our primary expertise but the very good quarterly review...

    16 July 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    History Repeats Itself

    Good evening, Tonight I want to share with you the excellent analysis of GMO Asset Management (New York fund managed by the famous permabear Jeremy Grantham that we appreciate for the quality of...

    09 July 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Time To Talk

    No inspiration for this post: in all honesty, I don't understand the level of valuations, nor the speeches heard to explain these levels. And as you...

    24 June 2021

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    Back home

    Back after a not so easy move back from England to France in the middle of the pandemic. The markets remain atonic: almost nothing is happening. I'm rereading the...

    17 June 2021

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    Nice Transaction

    Yesterday we closed our small line Translate Bio (0.5% of the fund) - a biotech company specializing in the development of messenger RNA-based drugs - which...

    10 June 2021

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    Cautious positioning

    The fund's positioning remains cautious, which we believe is appropriate with markets at historical highs and valuations...

    27 May 2021

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    Meditate

    Regarding the fund, the acquisition of M6 by TF1 is excellent news. TF1 was already a good deal for us - the dividend representing a yield above...

    20 May 2021

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    Market of Fools!

    This week I'm pushing the envelope on Pinterest: in the call held after the earnings release, CEO Ben Silbermann announced that they were expecting for the next...

    05 May 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Pinterest: Deception

    Pinterest released disappointing results on Tuesday night. On Wednesday, the stock was down 14% (noting that this only takes it back to its price at the beginning of the year). I had...

    29 April 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Netflix: It's Getting Complicated

    Three of our companies published their results at the beginning of the week: Danone, Petrofac and Orange. At Danone (4% of the fund): results in line with our expectations....

    22 April 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Q1 Results Release

    The fund has been rising since the beginning of April, led by Petrofac which recovered +35% over the month to return to its February level. This rise is partly due to the fact that the fund has...

    15 April 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Apple : Enemy N°1

    Meeting on Clubhouse (the new social network), Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook - worth $830 billion), Daniel Ek (Spotify, the world's leading music site - worth $51 billion) and...

    25 March 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Danone&Faber, TF1&M6, Petrofac

    News on several of our lines these days: Danone (5% of the fund): departure of Emmanuel Faber. No opinion on the board's decision to thank him. From a point of view of...

    17 March 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Short & Efficient

    Here is our business process today: 1/ Turn on the screen; 2/ Watch the Gamestop price; 3/ If this number is higher than $20, turn off the screen....

    11 March 2021

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    SLOW DOWN

    For some companies, the pandemic has had a more than positive effect on their bottom line. Their stock prices followed suit. That effect has now passed. The...

    03 March 2021

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    APPLE: NO

    ... No, it's not progressing. I've seen the headlines "APPLE: REVENUES ABOVE $100 BILLION IN LAST QUARTER" pass by like you. But the explanation is simple:...

    25 February 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    New wave in the US ?

    The media announce that the pandemic is behind us: the number of cases is decreasing every day in the US + the arrival of vaccines. But if we listen to Michael Osterholm, the...

    12 February 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Pinterest Episode 2: Results Release

    There is a lot of buzz about the U.S. indices posting all-time highs these days. But given the level of dispersion, I think it's safer to analyze the lines...

    05 February 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Gamestop: Revealing the market's folly?

    It will not have escaped your attention that we are living in extraordinary times. In terms of health, politics, economics and the market, there are few...

    04 February 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Pinterest The Return?

    The drop is due to volatility on Petrofac: the stock lost 15% last week, but has recovered +17% since Monday. Our position, presented last week, does not...

    28 January 2021

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    Petrofac Update

    On Friday Petrofac fell by 30%. An impressive figure, but one that only brings the stock back to where it was two months ago. The news that caused this drop was...

    19 January 2021

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    #Critical Sense

    The main argument of those who refute the idea of a bubble is that with rates low, stocks are worth more. Yet a company like SAMSUNG, whose...

    14 January 2021

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    Zoom On Zoom

    Zoom is now worth $130 billion, the same as Facebook was at the end of 2013. At the time, Facebook was earning $1 billion per quarter and held $11 billion in cash. Today, Zoom...

    24 December 2020

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    Covid 19 Vs Restaurants

    Covid Vs Darden: The vaccine will be here in a while, but for now the virus is progressing. In the US, the number of daily deaths just surpassed the...

    10 December 2020

  • Les Billets de Monocle

    The Nikola Case

    It is difficult to understand what is happening now if we look at the evolution of the indices, and more enlightening to look in detail at a particular case. So let's take a look at...

    02 December 2020

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