{"id":2719,"date":"2022-02-01T15:00:08","date_gmt":"2022-02-01T14:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=2719"},"modified":"2022-05-03T15:38:25","modified_gmt":"2022-05-03T13:38:25","slug":"quand-les-marches-jouent-a-la-roulette-russe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2022\/02\/01\/quand-les-marches-jouent-a-la-roulette-russe\/","title":{"rendered":"When markets play Russian roulette"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sur l’effet de levier, Warren Buffet a un jour dit : \u00ab si vous \u00eates intelligent, vous n’en avez pas besoin ; et si vous \u00eates stupide, vous ne devriez pas l’utiliser. C\u2019est la seule mani\u00e8re pour une personne intelligente de se ruiner \u00bb.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Autrement dit, une personne poss\u00e9dant 100\u20ac ne devrait pas jouer avec 1000\u20ac \u00e0 un jeu risqu\u00e9 – sauf si elle a bien en t\u00eate ce qu’elle risque.<\/p>\n

[Pour les moins avertis\u00a0: l\u2019effet de levier est une technique financi\u00e8re qui consiste \u00e0 mettre en jeu plus d\u2019argent que le capital dont on dispose afin de maximiser le potentiel de rendement (et par extension de perte). Les produits d\u00e9riv\u00e9s telles que les options permettent d\u2019utiliser ce m\u00e9canisme<\/em>.]<\/p>\n

Depuis environ 6 mois, la course au profit a acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9\u00a0: les intervenants du march\u00e9 ont augment\u00e9 leur allocation en produits d\u00e9riv\u00e9s (avec effet de levier donc) et ont r\u00e9duit\u00a0leurs positions sur le march\u00e9 physique (spot –\u00a0<\/em>sans effet de levier).<\/p>\n

Les derni\u00e8res statistiques sorties par\u00a0Interactive Brokers\u00a0<\/em>(un des brokers les plus important aux Etats-Unis) montrent une nette cassure\u00a0\u00e0 partir du second trimestre 2021 :<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Et a fortiori, comme\u00a0<\/strong>l\u2019explique le Financial Times<\/a><\/strong>, ces produits d\u00e9riv\u00e9s sont en grande partie d\u00e9tenus par les particuliers.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nous nous retrouvons donc avec des march\u00e9s o\u00f9 le niveau de risque est accru, g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 par des investisseurs particuliers (donc qui par d\u00e9finition le ma\u00eetrisent moins) et o\u00f9 la hausse des prix n\u2019est pas justifi\u00e9e par les fondamentaux.<\/p>\n

Les r\u00e9centes fluctuations nous l\u2019ont montr\u00e9\u00a0: la volatilit\u00e9 est de retour pour de bon et les mouvements \u00e0 venir pourraient \u00eatre d\u2019une autre violence que celle que nous avons connue jusqu\u2019ici si le vent tourne.<\/p>\n

Bonne semaine,
\nMax<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sur l’effet de levier, Warren Buffet a un jour dit : \u00ab si vous \u00eates intelligent, vous n’en avez pas besoin ; et si vous \u00eates stupide, vous…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":2746,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - Quand les march\u00e9s jouent \u00e0 la roulette russe<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - Quand les march\u00e9s jouent \u00e0 la roulette russe\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sur l’effet de levier, Warren Buffet a un jour dit : \u00ab si vous \u00eates intelligent, vous n’en avez pas besoin ; et si vous \u00eates stupide, vous...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2022\/02\/01\/quand-les-marches-jouent-a-la-roulette-russe\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Monocle\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-02-01T14:00:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-05-03T13:38:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Roulette-Russse-2.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"540\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"431\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2022\/02\/01\/quand-les-marches-jouent-a-la-roulette-russe\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2022\/02\/01\/quand-les-marches-jouent-a-la-roulette-russe\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#\/schema\/person\/f095305e6c0f0cb67a0905de33670595\"},\"headline\":\"Quand les march\u00e9s jouent \u00e0 la roulette russe\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-02-01T14:00:08+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-05-03T13:38:25+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2022\/02\/01\/quand-les-marches-jouent-a-la-roulette-russe\/\"},\"wordCount\":312,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2022\/02\/01\/quand-les-marches-jouent-a-la-roulette-russe\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Roulette-Russse-2.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Les Billets de Monocle\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2022\/02\/01\/quand-les-marches-jouent-a-la-roulette-russe\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2022\/02\/01\/quand-les-marches-jouent-a-la-roulette-russe\/\",\"name\":\"Monocle - 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