{"id":2753,"date":"2021-10-18T15:40:27","date_gmt":"2021-10-18T13:40:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=2753"},"modified":"2022-05-04T17:24:22","modified_gmt":"2022-05-04T15:24:22","slug":"retour-vers-le-futur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2021\/10\/18\/retour-vers-le-futur\/","title":{"rendered":"Back To The Future"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\"See you later... much later!\" is how Professor Brown says goodbye to Marty McFly as he leaves for a trip back in time in the iconic 80s saga.<\/p>\n<p>Let's do the same with the financial markets (going back in time can be interesting to understand the present): over the last 6 years, valuation multiples have increased at the same speed as the famous De Lorean of the movie.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>LVMH was paying 17x its net income in 2015 against 31x* today (+80%) ;<\/li>\n<li>EssilorLuxotica: 28x net income vs. 42x* (+50%) ;<\/li>\n<li>Dassault Syst\u00e8mes: 43x versus 93x* (+120%!) ;<\/li>\n<li>Worldline: 27x versus 94x* (+350%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This is shocking enough to be noted: all the market increase of the last 6 years comes from the increase in valuation multiples.<\/p>\n<p>And for those who will ask me if this is due to a change in context, nay! At the end of 2015, French interest rates were almost as low as they are today (&lt; 1%) and financial markets were already generously valued (the CAC was flirting with 5000 points).<\/p>\n<p>The observation is therefore simple: since 2015, the companies mentioned above have seen their net profits multiply between 1.5 and 2.5 times. On the other hand, their capitalization has multiplied between 3.5x and 5x -\u00a0<strong>why? Because it's a bubble.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If we return to the same multiple levels as in 2015 (which is very likely in a similar macro context), here are the expected price changes:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>LVMH : -45%<\/li>\n<li>Essilor : -35%<\/li>\n<li>Dassault : -55%<\/li>\n<li>Wordline : -70%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And these are far from being isolated cases...<\/p>\n<p>Have a great week,<\/p>\n<p>Max<\/p>\n<p>*On the net result of the last 12 months<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00ab A plus tard\u2026 beaucoup plus tard ! \u00bb\u00a0 c\u2019est ainsi que le professeur Brown dit au revoir \u00e0 Marty McFly au moment de partir pour un voyage&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":2875,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - 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