{"id":2777,"date":"2021-07-27T16:05:26","date_gmt":"2021-07-27T14:05:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=2777"},"modified":"2022-05-05T16:18:16","modified_gmt":"2022-05-05T14:18:16","slug":"le-pe-de-shiller-prix-nobel-deconomie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2021\/07\/27\/le-pe-de-shiller-prix-nobel-deconomie\/","title":{"rendered":"Shiller's PE (Nobel Prize In Economics)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>One of the most frequently used metrics to determine the overall level of valuation of financial markets is Robert Shiller's PE.<\/p>\n<p>Shiller in a few words: leading 20th century economist, professor at Yale University and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013.<\/p>\n<p>The logic behind the ratio he developed is relatively simple: it compares the market valuation of companies to their net income. Market capitalization is divided by the average net income over 10 years (which smoothes out the effects of cycles).<\/p>\n<p>Over the long term, this ratio oscillates between 5 (post<sup>\u00e8re<\/sup>\u00a0World War II) and 45 (top of the bubble of 2000). Today, we are at 33.8 : a level highly above the one preceeding the 2008 crisis (around 27) and close to the one of 1929 - where american markets suffered a drop of -88% in 2 years. These numbers speak for themselves.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/mcusercontent.com\/a4246d11f2e2f33deafaefe7d\/images\/0c70ba87-e7ff-5003-2392-d217483d432f.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>If we turn to the bond markets, the situation is not better. The risk premium offered by so-called \"risky\" bonds is returning to its lowest levels, which were reached twice: in 2007 before the onset of the financial crisis and in 2020 just before the outbreak of the pandemic. As a result, investors only earn an additional 2% for lending to a company that is characterized as high credit risk. This is a bet we will not take.<\/p>\n<p>In this type of configuration, a purchase will offer at best a low return, at worst a capital loss. As our primary objective is to protect our assets, we are choosing prudence and are waiting.<\/p>\n<p>Have a great week,<\/p>\n<p>Pierre and Maximilien<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019une des m\u00e9triques les plus fr\u00e9quemment utilis\u00e9es pour d\u00e9terminer le niveau global de valorisation des march\u00e9s financiers est le PE de Robert Shiller. Shiller en quelques mots\u00a0: \u00e9conomiste&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":2890,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Monocle - Le PE De Shiller (Prix Nobel D&#039;\u00e9conomie)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - Le PE De Shiller (Prix Nobel D&#039;\u00e9conomie)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"L\u2019une des m\u00e9triques les plus fr\u00e9quemment utilis\u00e9es pour d\u00e9terminer le niveau global de valorisation des march\u00e9s financiers est le PE de Robert Shiller. 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