{"id":2802,"date":"2021-04-22T16:19:33","date_gmt":"2021-04-22T14:19:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=2802"},"modified":"2022-05-06T17:40:13","modified_gmt":"2022-05-06T15:40:13","slug":"netflix-ca-se-complique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2021\/04\/22\/netflix-ca-se-complique\/","title":{"rendered":"Netflix: It's Getting Complicated"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Trois de nos soci\u00e9t\u00e9s publiaient leurs r\u00e9sultats en d\u00e9but de semaine : Danone, Petrofac et Orange.<\/p>\n

Chez Danone (4% du fonds) :\u00a0r\u00e9sultats conformes \u00e0 ce que nous attendions. Il faudra attendre l’arriv\u00e9e du nouveau PDG pour voir quelle sera sa\u00a0vision strat\u00e9gique – en gardant \u00e0 l’esprit le risque d’un s\u00e9rieux nettoyage \u00e0 sec \u00e0 son arriv\u00e9e, comme le font souvent les nouveaux PDG pour marquer le\u00a0coup.<\/p>\n

Chez Petrofac (6% du fonds) : idem, r\u00e9sultats conformes aux attentes. Pas de nouvelle du Serious Fraud Office bien que le PDG Samy Iskander ait annonc\u00e9\u00a0que ce sujet est \u00ab\u00a0the elephant in the room. […]\u00a0I will deal with that.<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb Nous esp\u00e9rions une avanc\u00e9e au T1 mais cela ne remet pas en cause notre avis\u00a0: il y aura un Petrofac post-SFO et celui-ci aura un cours de bourse plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 que l’actuel.<\/p>\n

Chez Orange (8% du fonds) : pas de surprise non plus.\u00a0La direction confirme le dividende de 0.70, ce qui\u00a0 fait de notre ligne, \u00e0\u00a0notre prix d\u2019entr\u00e9e de 9.40, un investissement offrant un rendement de 7.50%.<\/p>\n

Enfin, dans la cat\u00e9gorie \u00ab\u00a0poids lourds\u00a0\u00bb, Netflix publiait hier soir.\u00a0<\/strong>Il ne faut pas trop s’attarder sur la partie r\u00e9sultats, o\u00f9 le management a beaucoup de latitude (la premi\u00e8re charge de Netflix c’est la d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation de son catalogue de s\u00e9ries, chiffre ajustable dans tous les sens). Plus parlant, l’\u00e9volution du nombre d’abonn\u00e9s comme le montre leur graphique publi\u00e9\u00a0hier soir :<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Ca s’annonce bien plat 2021.<\/p>\n

Alors bien s\u00fbr\u00a0le management a annonc\u00e9 hier que le 2\u00e8me semestre allait \u00eatre bien meilleur, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 de nouvelles productions avec beaucoup de stars Hollywoodiennes et\u00a0un programme de rachat d’actions pour $5 Mds (et ce sans augmenter la dette). Et c’est ici que nous rencontrons un probl\u00e8me de calcul :<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    \n
  1. En prenant le nombre d’abonn\u00e9s du dernier trimestre, Netflix est sur une (impressionnante) base de revenus de $30 Mds par an.<\/li>\n
  2. La soci\u00e9t\u00e9\u00a0annonce qu’elle va d\u00e9penser $17 Mds en contenus cette ann\u00e9e (\u00e7a co\u00fbte cher la production). Nous sommes\u00a0 \u00e0\u00a0$13 Mds.<\/li>\n
  3. Je d\u00e9duis les $10 Mds de co\u00fbts op\u00e9rationnels. J’en suis donc \u00e0 $ 3 Mds.<\/li>\n
  4. Je retire les $800 M d’int\u00e9r\u00eats, je paie mes imp\u00f4ts (16% au dernier trimestre) et\u00a0il me reste $1.8 Mds nets. Ce qui veut dire qu’il me manque un peu plus de $3 Mds pour pouvoir r\u00e9aliser ce rachat sans augmenter la dette\u2026 Soit dit en passant, sur une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 valoris\u00e9e $230 Mds, $5 Mds c’est une broutille. Mais m\u00eame cette broutille\u00a0a l’air difficile \u00e0 atteindre.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
    \n

    Cela aurait fait une bonne question pour le call qui suit les r\u00e9sultats. Mais, dans ce domaine aussi, Netflix innove : depuis quelques trimestres, la pr\u00e9sentation des r\u00e9sultats est faite avec un seul analyste, choisi par le management avec des questions pos\u00e9es uniquement par email et \u00e0 l’avance. J’ai lu tout \u00e0 l’heure la transcription\u00a0de ce call :\u00a0 questions mielleuses &\u00a0r\u00e9ponses fumeuses, auxquelles\u00a0l’analyste conclut \u00e0 chaque fois par un \u00ab\u00a0Great!\u00a0\u00bb ou \u00ab\u00a0G\u00e9nial !\u00a0\u00bb. Bref, rien qui ne donne une id\u00e9e pr\u00e9cise de ce qui se passe dans les comptes de Netflix. Sans oublier que \u00e7a c’est qui concerne la gestion active, qui doit repr\u00e9senter 30% des investisseurs sur Netflix. Les autres – la gestion passive –\u00a0n’ouvrent m\u00eame pas les comptes, c’est encore plus simple.<\/p>\n

    Ces m\u00e9thodes permettent \u00e0 Netflix de gagner du temps. Pas de changer la situation. On\u00a0verra comment se passeront les trimestres \u00e0 venir, dans un univers de plus en plus concurrentiel.<\/p>\n

    L’action perd -7% aujourd’hui. Netflix vaut donc $226 Mds. L’antith\u00e8se d’une broutille.<\/p>\n

    Bonne semaine,
    \nCharles<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Trois de nos soci\u00e9t\u00e9s publiaient leurs r\u00e9sultats en d\u00e9but de semaine : Danone, Petrofac et Orange. Chez Danone (4% du fonds) :\u00a0r\u00e9sultats conformes \u00e0 ce que nous attendions….<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":2920,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - Netflix : \u00c7a Se Complique<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - Netflix : \u00c7a Se Complique\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Trois de nos soci\u00e9t\u00e9s publiaient leurs r\u00e9sultats en d\u00e9but de semaine : Danone, Petrofac et Orange. 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