{"id":2813,"date":"2021-03-03T16:23:40","date_gmt":"2021-03-03T15:23:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=2813"},"modified":"2022-05-06T17:44:44","modified_gmt":"2022-05-06T15:44:44","slug":"slow-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2021\/03\/03\/slow-down\/","title":{"rendered":"SLOW DOWN"},"content":{"rendered":"

For some companies, the pandemic has had a more than positive effect on their bottom line. Their stock prices followed suit.<\/p>\n

That effect has now passed.<\/p>\n

Operational figures are certainly higher than before, but growth is slowing down. This is the \"slow down\". And the multiples will have to do the same.<\/p>\n

Take Zoom, one of today's stars.<\/p>\n

The company just released its results and gave its guidance for 2021. Here they are:<\/p>\n


\nGraph made by Binocle Limited.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

The blue curve shows the evolution of Zoom's results. The grey one shows the growth from one quarter to the other (what we should focus on).<\/p>\n

With the arrival of the pandemic, Zoom had a crazy growth. Now, that's over and their forecast for 2021 clearly shows that. We are going from very high growth to low growth.<\/p>\n

Impact on valuation? Zero...<\/p>\n

Analysis:\u00a0<\/strong>in the last quarter, Zoom earned (before taxes) $250M. So, on a yearly basis, we arrive at about $1.0bn of net income (with some growth and adding taxes). If we pay that 40 times earnings - let's be generous (Pfizer pays itself 10 times earnings) - that's a value of $40bn.<\/p>\n

However, tonight, Zoom is worth $130 billion.<\/p>\n

This additional $90 billion is the market's belief that: 1) Zoom will continue to grow (although you might say that everyone who needs to be on Zoom is already on Zoom); 2) Zoom will succeed in defending its current business (the competition is tough...); 3) and\/or Zoom will develop a new service twice as great as the first one. Very optimistic.<\/p>\n

The other scenario is that the stock will go back down to this $40bn value, which is a 70% drop in the stock.<\/p>\n

Have a great week,
\nCharles.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pour certaines entreprises, la pand\u00e9mie a eu un effet plus que positif sur leurs r\u00e9sultats. Les cours de leurs actions ont suivi. Cet effet est d\u00e9sormais pass\u00e9. Les…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":2924,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - SLOW DOWN<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - SLOW DOWN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Pour certaines entreprises, la pand\u00e9mie a eu un effet plus que positif sur leurs r\u00e9sultats. Les cours de leurs actions ont suivi. Cet effet est d\u00e9sormais pass\u00e9. 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