{"id":2836,"date":"2021-01-28T11:05:52","date_gmt":"2021-01-28T10:05:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=2836"},"modified":"2022-05-06T17:47:23","modified_gmt":"2022-05-06T15:47:23","slug":"pinterest-le-retour","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2021\/01\/28\/pinterest-le-retour\/","title":{"rendered":"Pinterest The Return?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The decline is due to volatility on Petrofac: the stock lost 15% last week, but has recovered +17% since Monday. Our position, presented last week, does not change: the current price does not reflect the value of the company.<\/p>\n

In the rest of the markets, here's the big picture: companies for which the pandemic had a beneficial effect saw that trend continue into the end of 2020. Yesterday, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft all reported better-than-expected results. But despite these results, the stock prices did not react.<\/p>\n

Is this a sign of an end of cycle? I don't know. In any case, the alarming signs are certainly multiplying:
\n- example 1: the aberrant movements on Gamestop (without any fundamental element)
\n- example 2: the reaction of the volatility index yesterday, which had one of its strongest rises while the fall of the US markets was substantial but not dramatic.<\/p>\n

In any case, in a while this pandemic will be behind us and then the operational results of the moment will have to justify the valuations.<\/p>\n

Here is an example with Pinterest. I looked at Pinterest because it is the stock selected for 2021 by the Tech specialists at the Motfley Fool, a market site with a strong retail following (and not the worst). The post will be a bit longer than usual, as the majority of you voted for more in-depth analysis.<\/p>\n

The example of Pinterest<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pinterest is valued today at $40 billion, after tripling in one year. In the last quarter, Pinterest had a revenue of $440M and losses of $100M.<\/p>\n

The price level is therefore based neither on the absolute level of revenues ($440M last quarter - too low), nor on the results (losses between $50M and $150M every quarter for the past two years) but on the growth of revenues: in 2019, Pinterest posted each quarter sales up by +50% compared to the previous year. In 2020, growth faltered in Q1 with +35%, stalled in Q2 (+4%) and then picked up in Q3 (+58%).<\/p>\n

The Motley Fool reporters cited Pinterest as their top pick for 2021 based on this revenue growth rate.<\/p>\n

This growth rate has two drivers:
\n1) the number of users
\n2) the revenue per user.<\/p>\n

For simplicity, I'm focusing on the US which accounts for 90% of the revenue.<\/p>\n

Here is the evolution of the number of US users (in millions\/month) per quarter :<\/p>\n<\/div>\n