{"id":3521,"date":"2022-11-29T18:16:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-29T17:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=3521"},"modified":"2022-12-09T11:38:14","modified_gmt":"2022-12-09T10:38:14","slug":"tuto-valo-partie-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2022\/11\/29\/tuto-valo-partie-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Valuation Training - Part 2"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe style=\"width: 100%;\" title=\"rss embed thingy\" src=\"https:\/\/player.rss.com\/tutovalo\/726702\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><a href=\"https:\/\/rss.com\/podcasts\/tutovalo\/726702\/\">Le Billet de Monocle &#8211; Tuto Valo Partie 2 (Pierre Michaud &amp; Maxime Neofytos) | RSS.com<\/a><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\">You've all been waiting for it: here are our insights into last week's valuation Tutorial.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\">For those of you who missed the last post, we were left with the following statement:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\"><em>In a normal year, a surfboard rental generates 300,000\u20ac of turnover and 30,000\u20ac of margin, net of all costs (rent, salaries, depreciation of boards, taxes, etc).<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\"><em>What is the value of this business?<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\"><strong><em>Answer A : 100.000\u20ac<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\"><strong><em>Answer B : 300.000\u20ac<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\"><strong><em>Answer C : 600.000\u20ac<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\"><strong><em>Answer D : 900.000\u20ac<br \/>\n<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\">Many of you played the game, and here are your answers:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-3540\" src=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Image1-300x149.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"149\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" data-srcset=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\">First of all, let's remember that when you buy a company, you become a shareholder, and the net result is the property of the shareholder (the result that you can reinvest or pay yourself in dividends).<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\">In this case, you are buying a long-term stream of \u20ac30,000 per year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\"><strong>A <\/strong>- If you offer \u20ac100,000: it will take you barely 3.5 years to make your investment profitable. We're talking about an annual return of 30%, which is a big deal. To offer this price is to take the risk of being slapped in the face. But it's worth a try...<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\"><strong>B<\/strong> - If you offer \u20ac300,000: the price will seem credible to the current manager, and you will get a 10% annual return (\u20ac30k margin on a \u20ac300k investment). This is the answer we would have preferred at Monocle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\"><strong>C<\/strong> - If you offer \u20ac600,000: you start paying a lot. Your return is 5% per year, for a business (so for a risky asset), not for a guaranteed \"Livret A\". Which seems a bit low. But it can make sense. We'll talk about this further down in the post.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\"><strong>D <\/strong>- If you offer \u20ac900,000: no one has dared to do it, and no wonder! It will take you 30 years of activity to review your initial stake. At that price, you'll be offering a nice retirement to previous owner and you'll be close to the volunteer box.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\"><strong>To go further<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\">Some of you pointed out the risk of the activity (seasonality, weather, health situation, etc.), or the growth potential if you engage <a style=\"text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2022\/06\/14\/cest-la-fin-des-vacances-%f0%9f%8c%b4\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Lola the Tiktok influencer<\/a> to advertise for us on the Place des Landais.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\">The more astute have even noticed that there is probably a hole in the board hire company's coffers. The 10% margin is low for the sector. What are the chances of being able to generate more profit in the future and make a \u20ac600k offer?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\">All these points are correct, and this is where our job as investors becomes interesting. In any valuation, you have to consider all possible scenarios and apply the principle of \"risk-return\".<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\">If after analysing the business, you realise that you can generate 20% net margin instead of 10% and that the rental can generate \u20ac500,000 in sales within 3 years, then I'm with you if you offer \u20ac900,000!<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\"><strong>Let's go back to the markets<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; word-break: break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;\">If our surf rental was in fact Zoom ($21 billion market cap), the market as a whole would have answered our question with \u20ac1,300,000. And I'm only talking about Zoom here...<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Market and portfolio focus<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Behaviour:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Over the week (from 22\/11 to 29\/11), the fund rose by 0.26%, mainly supported by our bearish position on the Nasdaq (the index fell by 1.9% over the week).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Lines:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>No change in the portfolio on the equity side, we maintain our net exposure at 10%. On the corporate bond side, we have reduced our exposure to Atos 2025 to 0.9% of the fund, crystallising \u20ac90,000 of profit.<\/p>\n<p>Have a great week,<br \/>\nPierre<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>You've all been waiting for it: here are our insights into last week's valuation Tutorial.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":3542,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Monocle - Tuto Valo - Partie 2<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - Tuto Valo - Partie 2\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Vous l\u2019attendiez tous impatiemment : voici nos \u00e9clairages sur le Tuto Valo de la semaine derni\u00e8re.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2022\/11\/29\/tuto-valo-partie-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Monocle\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-11-29T17:16:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-12-09T10:38:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/shutterstock_167888861-1024x683.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"L&#039;\u00e9quipe Monocle\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"L&#039;\u00e9quipe Monocle\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2022\\\/11\\\/29\\\/tuto-valo-partie-2\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2022\\\/11\\\/29\\\/tuto-valo-partie-2\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f095305e6c0f0cb67a0905de33670595\"},\"headline\":\"Tuto Valo &#8211; 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