{"id":4141,"date":"2023-07-18T11:45:49","date_gmt":"2023-07-18T09:45:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4141"},"modified":"2023-07-18T11:45:49","modified_gmt":"2023-07-18T09:45:49","slug":"la-main-de-dieu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/","title":{"rendered":"The Hand of God"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Article this week in the Financial Times by Robert Armstrong - one of the old hands - entitled \"The Seven Mercenaries\".<\/p>\n<p>He talks about the 7 stocks making the market this year - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia and Tesla.<\/p>\n<p>He divides them into three groups:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00a0not too expensive compared with the rest of the market : Alphabet, Meta;<\/li>\n<li>\u00a0the expensive ones: Apple, Microsoft;<\/li>\n<li>\u00a0the overpriced: Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And he pastes this little chart.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/petit-tablo.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"727\" height=\"179\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Amazon's market capitalization is $1,300 billion.<\/p>\n<p>For the PE of 50 to be fair, Amazon would have to achieve net income of $26 billion this year.<\/p>\n<p>Over the last three years, Amazon's net profit - excluding the gain then loss on Rivian's valuation - is $17 bn; $18 bn and $8 bn.<\/p>\n<p>In the first quarter of 2023, Amazon made a profit of $3 Bn. Not even close.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Where does the difference come from?<\/p>\n<p>Here :<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/tablo2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"654\" height=\"496\" \/><\/p>\n<p>This is an extract from a recent analyst's report. I won't give you the name of the bank, but it's one of the world's top twenty.<\/p>\n<p>As you can see, there's a $20 billion gap between the operating income reported and the adjusted operating income used by the analyst. The analyst doesn't even explain how he calculates the adjustment, but I imagine he takes out stock-based compensation. This debate is as old as the hills: this charge should obviously be included (a simple test to check: if it counts for nothing, just remove it, and you'll quickly see how employees react).<\/p>\n<p>This is how, with a good \"adjustment\", we reach a PE of 50 when the real one is over 70.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, if Amazon really had a PE of 50, the stock would be 30% lower.<\/p>\n<p>If the rules no longer apply, the game is obviously different.<\/p>\n<p>It's like soccer: if you're allowed to score goals with your hands, it changes the game.<\/p>\n<p>In 1986 against England, it was Maradona who did it. He pushed the ball with his hand into the English goal. And despite the cameras, the goal went in.<\/p>\n<p>When questioned, he said, \"This is the hand of God.\"<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>But what does the hand of God have to do with Amazon's accounts?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Article cette semaine dans le Financial Times de Robert Armstrong &#8211; un des vieux de la vieille &#8211; intitul\u00e9 \u00ab\u00a0Les Sept Mercenaires\u00a0\u00bb. Il parle des 7 stocks qui&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4145,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Monocle - La Main de Dieu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - La Main de Dieu\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Article cette semaine dans le Financial Times de Robert Armstrong &#8211; un des vieux de la vieille &#8211; intitul\u00e9 \u00ab\u00a0Les Sept Mercenaires\u00a0\u00bb. Il parle des 7 stocks qui...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Monocle\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-07-18T09:45:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Capture-decran-2023-07-18-113247.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1088\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"723\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"L&#039;\u00e9quipe Monocle\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"L&#039;\u00e9quipe Monocle\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#\/schema\/person\/f095305e6c0f0cb67a0905de33670595\"},\"headline\":\"La Main de Dieu\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-18T09:45:49+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/\"},\"wordCount\":426,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Capture-decran-2023-07-18-113247.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Les Billets de Monocle\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/\",\"name\":\"Monocle - La Main de Dieu\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Capture-decran-2023-07-18-113247.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-18T09:45:49+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Capture-decran-2023-07-18-113247.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Capture-decran-2023-07-18-113247.png\",\"width\":1088,\"height\":723},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Rethink the way you train\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"La Main de Dieu\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/\",\"name\":\"Monocle\",\"description\":\"Asset Management\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Monocle\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/logo.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/logo.svg\",\"width\":152,\"height\":37,\"caption\":\"Monocle\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#\/schema\/person\/f095305e6c0f0cb67a0905de33670595\",\"name\":\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8f5b1ac2bd644098edce052a3a3d754307488f9a55621278d21120dbcbc7d03f?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8f5b1ac2bd644098edce052a3a3d754307488f9a55621278d21120dbcbc7d03f?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Monocle - La Main de Dieu","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Monocle - La Main de Dieu","og_description":"Article cette semaine dans le Financial Times de Robert Armstrong &#8211; un des vieux de la vieille &#8211; intitul\u00e9 \u00ab\u00a0Les Sept Mercenaires\u00a0\u00bb. Il parle des 7 stocks qui...","og_url":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/","og_site_name":"Monocle","article_published_time":"2023-07-18T09:45:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1088,"height":723,"url":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Capture-decran-2023-07-18-113247.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle","Estimated reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/"},"author":{"name":"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle","@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#\/schema\/person\/f095305e6c0f0cb67a0905de33670595"},"headline":"La Main de Dieu","datePublished":"2023-07-18T09:45:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/"},"wordCount":426,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Capture-decran-2023-07-18-113247.png","articleSection":["Les Billets de Monocle"],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/","url":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/","name":"Monocle - La Main de Dieu","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Capture-decran-2023-07-18-113247.png","datePublished":"2023-07-18T09:45:49+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Capture-decran-2023-07-18-113247.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Capture-decran-2023-07-18-113247.png","width":1088,"height":723},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/2023\/07\/18\/la-main-de-dieu\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Rethink the way you train","item":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"La Main de Dieu"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#website","url":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/","name":"Monocle","description":"Asset Management","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#organization","name":"Monocle","url":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/logo.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/logo.svg","width":152,"height":37,"caption":"Monocle"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#\/schema\/person\/f095305e6c0f0cb67a0905de33670595","name":"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8f5b1ac2bd644098edce052a3a3d754307488f9a55621278d21120dbcbc7d03f?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8f5b1ac2bd644098edce052a3a3d754307488f9a55621278d21120dbcbc7d03f?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle"}}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4141","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4141"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4141\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4145"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4141"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4141"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4141"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}