{"id":4171,"date":"2023-08-03T10:27:55","date_gmt":"2023-08-03T08:27:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4171"},"modified":"2023-08-03T10:27:55","modified_gmt":"2023-08-03T08:27:55","slug":"100-sentiment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2023\/08\/03\/100-sentiment\/","title":{"rendered":"100% Emotions"},"content":{"rendered":"

1er ao\u00fbt, les march\u00e9s sont hauts, les taux aussi. G\u00e9n\u00e9ralement \u00e7a ne marche pas ensemble. Comment trancher ?<\/p>\n

En regardant un dossier en d\u00e9tail. Je prends Netflix qu’on a souvent diss\u00e9qu\u00e9 dans le billet et qui est une des darlings de Wall Street cette ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Croissance des ventes :<\/u>\u00a0+3% ce trimestre, contre +4% au trimestre dernier. C’est inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 l’inflation. Si c’est \u00e7a une bo\u00eete de croissance, j’ai du mal comprendre.<\/li>\n
  2. Nombres d’abonn\u00e9s :<\/u>\u00a0ne repr\u00e9sente plus aucun int\u00e9r\u00eat car Netflix y m\u00e9lange des abonn\u00e9s plein tarif sans pub et demi-tarif avec pub. Donc qu’ils aient gagn\u00e9\/perdu X millions d’abonn\u00e9s ne nous apprend rien. On se concentre sur les ventes, cf remarque pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente.<\/li>\n
  3. La publicit\u00e9 :<\/u>\u00a0\u00ab\u00a0les revenus de la publicit\u00e9 sont immat\u00e9riels sur 2023.\u00a0\u00bb No comment.<\/li>\n
  4. La concurrence :<\/u>\u00a0elle s’appelle Youtube, Disney, Hulu, Amazon Prime. Tous de gros acteurs. Signe caract\u00e9ristique : tous nettement moins chers que Netflix. Le prix, \u00e7a compte toujours, et encore plus quand l’inflation attaque le pouvoir d’achat. Et certaines sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 pay\u00e9es de fait (Amazon o\u00f9 c’est inclus avec Prime etc).<\/li>\n
  5. Les r\u00e9sultats :<\/u>\u00a0un cash-flow op\u00e9rationnel positif de $3.5Mds sur les six premiers mois de l’ann\u00e9e. Excellente nouvelle ! Mais d’o\u00f9 \u00e7a vient, vu que les ventes ne croissent pas ? Des d\u00e9penses de contenu pour la majeure partie. L’ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, Netflix a d\u00e9pens\u00e9 $8.3 Mds sur le semestre contre $6.1 Mds cette ann\u00e9e.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Et le contenu, c’est le nerf de la guerre : si je coupe le contenu, la qualit\u00e9 du produit baisse, je perds du pricing power et des abonn\u00e9s qui partent vers les offres moins ch\u00e8res.<\/p>\n

    En conclusion l’avenir va \u00eatre tout sauf facile pour Netflix.<\/p>\n

    Les observations ci-dessus sont factuelles donc indiscutables.<\/p>\n

    Apr\u00e8s il y a le sentiment qui, lui, est ouvert \u00e0 toutes les nuances. Il valorisait Netflix plus de $200 Mds il y a deux ans, moins de $80 Mds il y a un an, \u00e0 nouveau pr\u00e8s de $200 Mds aujourd’hui.<\/p>\n

    Cerise sur le g\u00e2teau : les taux longs, qui font baisser la valeur de tout actif quand ils montent, sont pass\u00e9s de 2% il y a deux ans, \u00e0 3% il y a un an, \u00e0 4% aujourd’hui.<\/p>\n

    Ma conclusion est simple : cette hausse, c’est 100% du sentiment et 0% les fondamentaux.<\/p>\n

    Le cas Netflix illustre le march\u00e9 dans son ensemble.<\/p>\n

    Et le principal probl\u00e8me du sentiment, c’est qu’il varie, comme disait Marivaux.<\/p>\n

    La plupart de nos compteurs indiquent la fin de la partie – volatilit\u00e9 au plus bas, durcissement des conditions de cr\u00e9dit, 1er signe sur l’emploi.<\/p>\n

    Sur le dernier point,\u00a0quelques mots de Jonas Prising<\/a>, PDG de Manpower, \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sentation de ses r\u00e9sultats la semaine derni\u00e8re.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    \u00ab\u00a0La derni\u00e8re enqu\u00eate de ManpowerGroup sur les perspectives d’emploi, r\u00e9alis\u00e9e au printemps aupr\u00e8s de 40 000 employeurs dans plus de 30 pays, r\u00e9v\u00e8le que les entreprises pr\u00e9voient des embauches plus mesur\u00e9es pour le troisi\u00e8me trimestre, alors qu’elles font face \u00e0 toute une s\u00e9rie de d\u00e9fis locaux et macro\u00e9conomiques, allant des contraintes d’approvisionnement \u00e0 une confiance in\u00e9gale des consommateurs et \u00e0 un changement des priorit\u00e9s d’achat dans un contexte d’inflation \u00e9lev\u00e9e et continue. Le march\u00e9 du travail et d’autres donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques sont souvent en retard par rapport aux tendances prudentes des employeurs qui ont un impact sur notre secteur en premier lieu.<\/p>\n

    […]<\/p>\n

    Je pense que du point de vue des clients, et je suis s\u00fbr que pour beaucoup d’entre nous, il y a tellement de signaux contradictoires sur l’\u00e9conomie qu’il est difficile de dire quand les choses vont s’inverser. Mais de notre point de vue, si vous regardez nos donn\u00e9es, en tant qu’industrie et en tant qu’entreprise, nous op\u00e9rons d\u00e9j\u00e0 dans un environnement qui indique ce que nous appellerions le niveau de r\u00e9cession de type jardin depuis maintenant un certain nombre de trimestres aux \u00c9tats-Unis et plus de trimestres en Europe. Et si vous regardez les indicateurs globaux du march\u00e9 du travail aux \u00c9tats-Unis, vous voyez que notre industrie est en train de descendre \u00e0 un niveau plus bas. Le nombre d’heures travaill\u00e9es est en baisse. Les personnes \u00e0 temps partiel sont plus nombreuses \u00e0 chercher un emploi \u00e0 temps plein. Tous les indicateurs sont donc l\u00e0 pour indiquer une l\u00e9g\u00e8re d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration du march\u00e9 de l’emploi.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Croyez-vous que le patron de Manpower soit cr\u00e9dible sur l’\u00e9volution de l’emploi ? Je pense que oui.<\/p>\n

    Enfin sur le cr\u00e9dit, un chiffre relev\u00e9 hier qui m’a marqu\u00e9 : en 2019, Telecom Italia (l’\u00e9quivalent d’Orange l\u00e0-bas) a \u00e9mis de la dette \u00e0 3%. L\u00e0, ils viennent d’\u00e9mettre \u00e0 nouveau mais \u00e0 8%.<\/p>\n

    Les charges d’int\u00e9r\u00eats qui font plus que doubler, il y a un moment o\u00f9 cela aura des cons\u00e9quences.<\/p>\n

    Mon objectif est, comme chaque ann\u00e9e, de gagner de l’argent. Aujourd’hui, avec le niveau de valorisation atteint et la baisse de la volatilit\u00e9, la meilleure mani\u00e8re d’atteindre cet objectif me semble \u00eatre d’acheter des puts et des obligations longues du gouvernement US – la valeur refuge par excellence. C’est ce que nous faisons dans Monocle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    1er ao\u00fbt, les march\u00e9s sont hauts, les taux aussi. G\u00e9n\u00e9ralement \u00e7a ne marche pas ensemble. Comment trancher ? En regardant un dossier en d\u00e9tail. Je prends Netflix qu’on…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4172,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - 100% Sentiment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - 100% Sentiment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"1er ao\u00fbt, les march\u00e9s sont hauts, les taux aussi. 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