{"id":4180,"date":"2023-08-10T10:07:05","date_gmt":"2023-08-10T08:07:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4180"},"modified":"2023-08-10T10:07:05","modified_gmt":"2023-08-10T08:07:05","slug":"tranquille","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2023\/08\/10\/tranquille\/","title":{"rendered":"Tranquille"},"content":{"rendered":"

La plupart des r\u00e9sultats du Q2 sont sortis. Je voulais vous faire un topo sur Apple, mais Shawn Tully, un des anciens de Fortune,\u00a0l’a d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Net profit was $19.9 billion, down 18% on the previous quarter. The question that remains is whether Apple's profits can stabilize at this level of nearly $20 billion per quarter, or around $80 billion per year, or whether they are destined to fall further. Remember that $80 billion is a spectacular figure, already 45% higher than the pre-pandemic norm.
\nMais Apple se vend \u00e0 un ratio cours\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fice de 36. C’est beaucoup, beaucoup trop cher pour une entreprise qui ne cro\u00eet pas et dont le rendement du dividende est de 0,5 %. M\u00eame en consacrant l’int\u00e9gralit\u00e9 des flux de tr\u00e9sorerie aux rachats d’actions, ce qui est la r\u00e8gle de jeu habituelle d’Apple, on obtiendrait des gains de BPA de 3 % par an, plus l’inflation. Ce n’est pas suffisant. Pour qu’Apple devienne un bon achat, m\u00eame si elle continue \u00e0 gagner 80 milliards de dollars par an, son prix doit baisser consid\u00e9rablement.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

J’aurais \u00e9crit \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s la m\u00eame chose. Et la valorisation de la premi\u00e8re capitalisation mondiale refl\u00e8te un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne g\u00e9n\u00e9ral : il y a eu l’avant-COVID, le COVID puis l’apr\u00e8s COVID. Ces trois p\u00e9riodes refl\u00e8tent des r\u00e9alit\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques bien diff\u00e9rentes : avant COVID des valorisations \u00e9lev\u00e9es avec des taux bas et une croissance atone ; pendant le COVID des valorisations de bulle, des taux \u00e0 z\u00e9ro et des chocs de demande et d’offre ; enfin aujourd’hui, apr\u00e8s COVID, des valorisations \u00e0 nouveau \u00e9lev\u00e9es alors que les taux sont au plus haut depuis 15 ans et que le ralentissement arrive.<\/p>\n

Sur le ralentissement, je citais le patron de ManPower la semaine derni\u00e8re, voici le titre d’un article du Financial Times sur Maers, le g\u00e9ant Danois des conteneurs \u00ab\u00a0Maersk forecast long and deep contraction in global trade.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

\u00c7a freine un peu partout, en particulier en Chine o\u00f9 le sursaut post-r\u00e9ouverture du COVID n’aura dur\u00e9 qu’un trimestre.<\/p>\n

Sur la valorisation, vous avez le cas Apple expliqu\u00e9 ci-dessus. On le retrouve ailleurs : une action comme Adobe a pris 50% en 3 mois parce que AI \u00ab\u00a0je ne sais quoi\u00a0\u00bb.\u00a0 Elle est maintenant \u00e0 50 de PE alors que sur le premier semestre ses r\u00e9sultats croissent de 4% seulement.<\/p>\n

Sur les taux, il suffit de lire l\u2019\u00e9cran\u00a0: US30 ans, 4%, au plus haut depuis des ann\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

Je vous donne un dernier signal : notre performance est bien \u00e0 la tra\u00eene cette ann\u00e9e. C’\u00e9tait le cas fin 2017 et fin 2019. C’est \u00e0 dire \u00e0 des moments o\u00f9 l’histoire a montr\u00e9 qu’il \u00e9tait sage de plier les gaules pour \u00e9viter l’orage. On a souvent pli\u00e9 les gaules un peu t\u00f4t chez Monocle, donc sur le timing suivez nous avec des pincettes. Mais sur le sens on \u00e9tait dans le vrai. On per\u00e7oit d\u00e9j\u00e0 les premiers signes de nervosit\u00e9. La volatilit\u00e9 remonte, les mouvements sur les taux long sont violents, les moutons noirs apparaissent (Altice).\u00a0Nous on a nos puts, nos valeurs refuges et peu d\u2019actions\u00a0: on est tranquille.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La plupart des r\u00e9sultats du Q2 sont sortis. Je voulais vous faire un topo sur Apple, mais Shawn Tully, un des anciens de Fortune,\u00a0l’a d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait. \u00ab\u00a0Le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4181,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - Tranquille<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - Tranquille\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La plupart des r\u00e9sultats du Q2 sont sortis. Je voulais vous faire un topo sur Apple, mais Shawn Tully, un des anciens de Fortune,\u00a0l’a d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait. \u00ab\u00a0Le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2023\/08\/10\/tranquille\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Monocle\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-08-10T08:07:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Capture-decran-2023-08-08-170222.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"616\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"713\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2023\\\/08\\\/10\\\/tranquille\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2023\\\/08\\\/10\\\/tranquille\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f095305e6c0f0cb67a0905de33670595\"},\"headline\":\"Tranquille\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-08-10T08:07:05+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2023\\\/08\\\/10\\\/tranquille\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":576,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2023\\\/08\\\/10\\\/tranquille\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/08\\\/Capture-decran-2023-08-08-170222.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Les Billets de Monocle\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2023\\\/08\\\/10\\\/tranquille\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2023\\\/08\\\/10\\\/tranquille\\\/\",\"name\":\"Monocle - 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