{"id":4236,"date":"2023-09-15T12:36:55","date_gmt":"2023-09-15T10:36:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4236"},"modified":"2023-09-15T12:36:55","modified_gmt":"2023-09-15T10:36:55","slug":"pleased","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2023\/09\/15\/pleased\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Pleased\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le billet arrive tard cette semaine parce que je me suis retrouv\u00e9 emp\u00eatr\u00e9 dans mes analyses.<\/p>\n

Je voulais vous faire un truc simple sur Dollar General, \u00e0 la sauce Monocle.<\/p>\n

Le plan \u00e9tait le suivant:<\/p>\n

Acte I – Le business<\/strong><\/p>\n

Le business de Dollar General a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9sum\u00e9 en une phrase par son fondateur, Cal Turner, il y a 75 ans :<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Le mieux c’est de vendre des trucs chers \u00e0 des gens riches. Mais il y a beaucoup de monde sur ce segment. Donc nous, nous allons vendre des trucs pas chers aux gens fauch\u00e9s.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 est rest\u00e9e fid\u00e8le \u00e0 ce motto. Ni les endroits o\u00f9 elle installe ses magasins, ni la client\u00e8le autour, n’int\u00e9resse la concurrence. Sur un podcast r\u00e9cent, o\u00f9 plusieurs maires de petites villes \u00e9taient interrog\u00e9s pour ou contre Dollar General, on pouvait entendre: \u00ab\u00a0on a demand\u00e9 \u00e0 Walmart d’ouvrir chez nous, ils ont dit non. Target a dit non. Aldi a dit non. Donc pas le choix. Et c’est vrai que Dollar General a des d\u00e9fauts – assortiment limit\u00e9, peu de produit frais etc… – mais c’est mieux que rien.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

Et la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 s’est donc d\u00e9velopp\u00e9e sur ces \u00ab\u00a0food deserts\u00a0\u00bb, en augmentant de 50% son nombre de magasins en 7 ans. On est pass\u00e9 de 13.000 magasins \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 20.000. C’est la premi\u00e8re cha\u00eene retail aux Etats-Unis.<\/p>\n

Voil\u00e0 pour la big picture.<\/p>\n

Acte II – le COVID et le march\u00e9<\/strong><\/p>\n

Avec le COVID et les aides du gouvernement, les clients de Dollar General se sont retrouv\u00e9s avec plus d’argent que d’habitude. Et comme ce sont des consommateurs avec des petits moyens, ils n’ont pas th\u00e9sauris\u00e9, ils ont tout d\u00e9pens\u00e9. Donc Dollar General en a bien profit\u00e9. Les marges sont mont\u00e9es, l’action avec. Comme souvent, Wall Street a mis des multiples \u00e9lev\u00e9s sur des marges \u00e9lev\u00e9es. A l’\u00e9t\u00e9 2022, l’action affiche un PE de 25 et\u00a0 JP Morgan parle d’une \u00ab\u00a0rare opportunit\u00e9.\u00a0\u00bb Wells Fargo est encore plus optimiste apr\u00e8s une visite sur site.<\/p>\n

Acte III – Todd Vasos enfile son parachute<\/strong><\/p>\n

Un qui a compris que Wall Street s’est emball\u00e9, c’est le patron. Il r\u00e9agit et annonce… qu’il s’en va. L’action est \u00e0 $250 contre $70 il y a trois ans. Todd Vasos d\u00e9clare que leur concurrent le plus proche – Dollar Tree – est \u00ab\u00a0dans la poussi\u00e8re\u00a0\u00bb et il se retire sous les applaudissements.<\/p>\n

Avant de partir il fignole son programme de rachat d’actions : pas loin de $8 Mds en trois ans, dont les derniers financ\u00e9s avec de la dette, pour acheter l’action au plus haut. On peut avoir un doute sur l’int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 long terme de l’op\u00e9ration mais c’est quoi qu’il en soit bon pour les stock options de Todd.<\/p>\n

Acte IV – Jeff Owen prend les manettes<\/strong><\/p>\n

Apr\u00e8s 30 ans de maison, Jeff la conna\u00eet par c\u0153ur. Et il est COO (Chief Operating Officer) depuis 3 ans, le tremplin id\u00e9al pour le top job. Et il a une autre qualit\u00e9 : c’est un \u00e9ternel optimiste. Car, juste apr\u00e8s avoir pris les manettes, la descente commence. Les r\u00e9sultats sont inf\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 ce qui \u00e9tait annonc\u00e9, le march\u00e9 r\u00e9alise qu’il y a beaucoup de stocks dans ces magasins. A quoi Jeff r\u00e9pond \u00e0 chaque fois deux phrases magiques : le management est \u00ab\u00a0very pleased\u00a0\u00bb et \u00ab\u00a0very confident\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n

Et \u00e0 chaque fois, il ajoute \u00ab\u00a0mais on va quand m\u00eame r\u00e9viser nos projections \u00e0 la baisse.\u00a0\u00bb Le march\u00e9 adore : l’action passe de $250 \u00e0 $220 en mai. Puis $160 d\u00e9but juin o\u00f9 l’action perd 20% en une seule s\u00e9ance apr\u00e8s la publication du Q1 (o\u00f9 Jeff dit 13 fois qu’il est \u00ab\u00a0pleased\u00a0\u00bb). Rebelote le 31 Ao\u00fbt, l’action descend \u00e0 $130 – on remonte \u00e0 17 \u00ab\u00a0pleased\u00a0\u00bb pendant le call. Evidemment, les analystes qui ont pass\u00e9 les douze derniers mois \u00e0 rayer leurs mod\u00e8les pour ajuster plus bas ne sont pas eux very \u00ab\u00a0pleased\u00a0\u00bb. Et les actionnaires qui ont suivi leurs recommandations encore moins.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Acte V – Monocle rentre en piste.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nous on arrive l\u00e0, \u00e0 $130, en se disant \u00ab\u00a0ok, le probl\u00e8me est temporaire, Dollar General est un bel actif, les marges vont se restaurer.\u00a0\u00bb On a en t\u00eate $170 d’objectif de cours et on investit 4% du fonds. Sauf que depuis qu’on est rentr\u00e9s, nous continuons de creuser.<\/p>\n

J’ai lu le bouquin du fondateur, Cal Turner. Je lis le bouquin du concurrent Macon Brock, qui a fond\u00e9 Dollar Tree dans les ann\u00e9es 80. Nous avons creus\u00e9 les comptes un peu plus en profondeur. Et la conclusion c’est que ce n’est pas si simple ce dossier.\u00a0Les effets positifs de la pand\u00e9mie sont d\u00e9sormais derri\u00e8re nous. Le client de Dollar General est sous pression financi\u00e8rement avec l’inflation, et la hausse \u00e0 venir du ch\u00f4mage ne va pas arranger les choses. Enfin il y a toujours beaucoup, beaucoup trop de stocks.<\/p>\n

Donc apr\u00e8s bien pes\u00e9 le pour et le contre, nous allons garder nos 4% pour le moment, mais pas plus. A moyen terme je ne suis pas trop inquiet. A court terme c’est plus d\u00e9licat. Jeff est-il capable d’arriver avec des r\u00e9sultats \u00e9pouvantables d\u00e9but d\u00e9cembre en nous disant cinquante fois qu’il est \u00ab\u00a0pleased\u00a0\u00bb ? Oui\u00a0\ud83d\ude15<\/p>\n

Mais si \u00e7a arrive, je pense que le board lui fera prendre la m\u00eame porte de sortie que Todd Vassos – mais sans le parachute.<\/p>\n

Comme vous le voyez, l’acte V est brouillon, rien de limpide. Mais \u00e7a fait partie de ce m\u00e9tier. Ceux qui vous disent \u00ab\u00a0c’est s\u00fbr que l’action XYZ va doubler\u00a0\u00bb font un autre m\u00e9tier.<\/p>\n

Nous on creuse, on se gratte le cr\u00e2ne, et on fait au mieux. Pour l’instant ce sera 4% en Dollar General.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le billet arrive tard cette semaine parce que je me suis retrouv\u00e9 emp\u00eatr\u00e9 dans mes analyses. 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