{"id":4289,"date":"2023-10-19T13:49:58","date_gmt":"2023-10-19T11:49:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4289"},"modified":"2023-10-19T13:49:58","modified_gmt":"2023-10-19T11:49:58","slug":"spin-offs-are-grrreat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2023\/10\/19\/spin-offs-are-grrreat\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab Spin-offs are Grrreat ! \u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Ci-dessus c’est le graph de l’action WK Kellogg, le roi du corn flakes. Le groupe historique vient de se s\u00e9parer de son activit\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaine en en faisant une action cot\u00e9e \u00e0 part. Ce type d’op\u00e9ration, qui s’appelle un spin-off dans notre jargon, consiste \u00e0 s\u00e9parer l’activit\u00e9 qu’on ne veut plus garder en donnant \u00e0 chaque actionnaire du groupe une action de la nouvelle soci\u00e9t\u00e9.<\/p>\n

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Ce faisant, beaucoup des actionnaires du groupe historique se retrouvent avec quelque chose qu’ils ne peuvent\/veulent pas garder. Ne peuvent pas pour des raisons r\u00e9glementaires (capitalisation trop petite, g\u00e9ographie non autoris\u00e9e\u2026), ne veulent pas pour des raisons diverses (faible croissance, activit\u00e9 minoritaire dans le groupe initial\u2026).<\/p>\n

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C\u2019est exactement ce qu\u2019il vient de se passer avec WK Kellogg. Le groupe Kellogg s\u2019est scind\u00e9 en 2\u00a0: d\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9 la partie snack et c\u00e9r\u00e9ales internationales, renomm\u00e9e Kellanova (13bn$ de CA, 9% de croissance par an en 2019-22), de l\u2019autre le spin-off de l\u2019activit\u00e9 c\u00e9r\u00e9ales Am\u00e9rique du Nord, nomm\u00e9 WK Kellogg (2.7bn$ de CA, 1% de croissance par an en 2019-22).<\/p>\n

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C\u2019est un peu un cas d\u2019\u00e9cole\u00a0: activit\u00e9 plus petite, moindre croissance et moindre marge, WK Kellogg a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9laiss\u00e9e par le reste du groupe ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, pr\u00e9f\u00e9rant investir dans des segments plus porteurs. Des probl\u00e8mes internes r\u00e9cents (incendie et gr\u00e8ves) ach\u00e8vent le tableau. N\u2019en jetez plus, la coupe est pleine\u00a0: difficile de rester investis pour les actionnaires initiaux quand un tel constat est fait.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

On a identifi\u00e9 la situation comme int\u00e9ressante et on s\u2019est pench\u00e9 dessus. WK Kellogg est le #2 des c\u00e9r\u00e9ales aux Etats-Unis avec 30% de parts de march\u00e9. L\u2019entreprise existe depuis plus d\u2019un si\u00e8cle et on connait tous ses marques : Frosties, Special K, Corn Flakes… Malgr\u00e9 les difficult\u00e9s, elle a continu\u00e9 \u00e0 g\u00e9n\u00e9rer du cash (120m$ de r\u00e9sultat op\u00e9rationnel en 2022). Le programme d\u2019investissement de 450m$ sur les 3 prochaines ann\u00e9es permettra d\u2019am\u00e9liorer les marges principalement 1\/ en modernisant\/automatisant les capacit\u00e9s de production, et 2\/ en alignant les m\u00e9thodes de production sur les meilleurs sites. A 10% de marge op\u00e9rationnelle en 2026 (contre 8% aujourd\u2019hui), on paie moins de 6x le r\u00e9sultat net.<\/p>\n

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On avait clairement anticip\u00e9 que les actions seraient vendues sans vergogne pendant les premiers jours, d\u2019autant plus que la taille de WK Kellogg (moins de 1bn$ de capitalisation) a cr\u00e9\u00e9 de nombreux vendeurs forc\u00e9s. \u00a0Et c\u2019est exactement ce qu\u2019il s\u2019est pass\u00e9 : les 2\/3 des actions ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9chang\u00e9es en une semaine et le cours a perdu 30%. On a profit\u00e9 de ces flux vendeurs indiscrimin\u00e9s pour constituer notre position.<\/p>\n

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Un avertissement cependant. Investir dans un spin-off ne signifie pas que le coup est toujours gagnant\u00a0: les investisseurs d\u2019Euroapi en savent quelque chose. Gageons que notre investissement dans WK Kellogg subira un sort diff\u00e9rent.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Ci-dessus c’est le graph de l’action WK Kellogg, le roi du corn flakes. 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