{"id":4383,"date":"2023-11-17T14:30:28","date_gmt":"2023-11-17T13:30:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4383"},"modified":"2023-11-17T14:30:28","modified_gmt":"2023-11-17T13:30:28","slug":"la-fin-des-vacances","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2023\/11\/17\/la-fin-des-vacances\/","title":{"rendered":"The end of the holidays"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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A chaque fois que les banques centrales remontent les taux pour siffler la fin des vacances, on voit un moment o\u00f9 les march\u00e9s ne veulent pas l’entendre. Ce fut le cas en avril 1998 et en f\u00e9vrier 2007. Les taux avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 remont\u00e9s s\u00e9rieusement, et les march\u00e9s faisaient la sourde oreille. Tout le monde comprend bien que la man\u0153uvre a pour but de ralentir l’\u00e9conomie, mais le consensus est que \u00e7a va se passer en douceur : le \u00ab\u00a0soft landing\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n

Dans le graphique ci dessous vous voyez le nombre de fois o\u00f9 les mots \u00ab\u00a0soft landing\u00a0\u00bb sont mentionn\u00e9s dans les pr\u00e9sentations de r\u00e9sultats des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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De mani\u00e8re simpliste, le processus est le suivant : quand les taux sont bas, les acteurs empruntent et ach\u00e8tent, faisant monter la valeur des actifs. Quand les banques centrales montent les taux, il ne se passe d’abord rien : tant que les acteurs ne se refinancent pas, ils n’ont pas d’impact direct de la hausse des taux. Donc il y a toujours un peu de retard entre le moment o\u00f9 les banques centrales ont remont\u00e9 les taux et le moment o\u00f9 le syst\u00e8me commence \u00e0 freiner.<\/p>\n

Malgr\u00e9 cela, c’est un jeu de chaise musicale : dans chaque secteur, les sp\u00e9cialistes savent que c’est la fin des vacances. Tant que c’est possible, personne ne bouge, il y a peu de transactions et on serre les fesses en attendant que \u00e7a passe. Mais g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement, il y en a un qui finit par c\u00e9der, parce qu’il ne peut pas faire autrement. Et \u00e0 partir de ce moment l\u00e0, le mot d’ordre devient \u00ab\u00a0courage, fuyons\u00a0\u00bb, chacun essayant de sortir avant le reste de la troupe.<\/p>\n

Il y a eu un \u00e9v\u00e9nement ces derni\u00e8res semaines qui pourrait \u00eatre ce catalyseur : la faillite de WeWork.<\/p>\n

Beaucoup d’articles parlent de l’effondrement de la valeur du groupe, pass\u00e9e de $47 Mds \u00e0 $0, ou des pertes du fonds de tech Softbank qui a investi $18 Mds dans WeWork qui doivent valoir quelques clopinettes aujourd’hui.<\/p>\n

Mais on trouve d’autres articles qui s’inqui\u00e8tent des cons\u00e9quences sur le march\u00e9 immobilier commercial. Celui-ci est d\u00e9j\u00e0 s\u00e9v\u00e8rement impact\u00e9 par l’impact du t\u00e9l\u00e9travail et la hausse des taux. Cela fait baisser significativement la valeur des actifs. Mais tant qu’il n’y a pas de transaction, cela ne se voit pas. Maintenant, avec l’entr\u00e9e de WeWork en Chapter 11 (proc\u00e9dure de sauvegarde US), il va forc\u00e9ment y avoir des transactions. WeWork est un des premiers acteurs du march\u00e9 de bureaux dans les grandes villes mondiales. A New York, WeWork a pour 640.000 m2 de baux de bureaux. Tout cela arrive sur le march\u00e9 dans les semaines qui viennent, et va changer de propri\u00e9taire. Il y aura forc\u00e9ment des transactions, donc des prix. Et ces prix seront sans doute inf\u00e9rieurs aux valeurs conserv\u00e9es dans les comptes. Et en face de ces valeurs, il y a des dettes. Une partie importante de ces dettes vient des banques r\u00e9gionales am\u00e9ricaines, qui sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 fragiles.<\/p>\n

Je garde un \u0153il sur cela et vous tiens au courant si \u00e7a d\u00e9g\u00e9n\u00e8re dans les prochaines semaines. Ce sc\u00e9nario n’est en tout pas cas pas int\u00e9gr\u00e9 dans les prix des actifs aujourd’hui (actions bien remont\u00e9es, volatilit\u00e9 au plus bas et spread de cr\u00e9dit serr\u00e9s). Toujours plus dangereux quand la prise de conscience est faible.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Market and portfolio focus<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Behaviour:<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Sur la semaine (du 03\/11 au 10\/11), le fonds perd 0.3%, le S&P 500 prend +1.3% et le CAC 40 reste flat.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Lines:<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Nous avons profit\u00e9 de la r\u00e9cente euphorie des march\u00e9s sans aucune raison fondamentale pour renforcer nos protections en rajoutant de puts (options \u00e0 la vente) sur le S&P500.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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 <\/p>\n

Bonne fin de semaine \u00e0 vous,<\/p>\n

Charles<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A chaque fois que les banques centrales remontent les taux pour siffler la fin des vacances, on voit un moment o\u00f9 les march\u00e9s ne veulent pas l’entendre. 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