{"id":4481,"date":"2024-01-10T12:02:14","date_gmt":"2024-01-10T11:02:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4481"},"modified":"2024-01-10T12:02:14","modified_gmt":"2024-01-10T11:02:14","slug":"known-knowns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2024\/01\/10\/known-knowns\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Known knowns\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Asked in February 2002 about the connections between Saddam Hussein and terrorist organisations, Donald Rumsfeld replied:<\/p>\n

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\u201cThere are known knowns, things we know that we know;\u00a0and there are known unknowns, things that we know we don’t know.\u00a0But there are also unknown unknowns, things we do not know we don’t know.\u201d

Traduit, \u00e7a donne: \u00ab\u00a0Il y a des choses connues, des choses que nous savons que nous savons ; et il y a des inconnues connues, des choses que nous savons que nous ne savons pas. Mais il y a aussi des inconnues inconnues, des choses que nous ne savons pas que nous ne savons pas.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

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At the start of this year, we are reading a lot of predictions for 2024. They all contain a lot of \u2018unknowns\u2019, i.e. things we don't know.<\/p>\n

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- What will inflation do?<\/p>\n

- What will central banks do in each inflation scenario?<\/p>\n

- Where will the unemployment rate go from here?<\/p>\n

- Will there be a crisis in US office property, where the vacancy rate is at its highest (higher than during the Savings & Loan crisis of the 1980s)?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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- How will the campaign for the US presidential election go?<\/p>\n

- What geopolitical events can we expect?<\/p>\n

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The list of unknowns is long. But we can take Rumsfeld's quote in the opposite direction and focus on \u2018known knowns\u2019, i.e. \u2018what we know we know\u2019:<\/p>\n

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