{"id":4595,"date":"2024-03-15T12:24:01","date_gmt":"2024-03-15T11:24:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4595"},"modified":"2024-03-15T12:24:01","modified_gmt":"2024-03-15T11:24:01","slug":"what-the-hell-is-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2024\/03\/15\/what-the-hell-is-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cWhat the hell is risk ?\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cThere are these two young fish swimming along, and they happen to meet an older fish swimming the other way, who nods at them and says, \u2018Morning, boys. How\u2019s the water?\u2019 And the two young fish swim on for a bit, and then eventually one of them looks over at the other and goes, \u2018What the hell is water?\u2019 \u201d (David Foster Wallace)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>En ces temps de sommets sur le Nasdaq, il est temps de se demander \u00ab\u00a0what the hell is risk\u00a0?\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Dans les manuels classiques de finance, le risque est d\u00e9fini comme la volatilit\u00e9. Mais la volatilit\u00e9, c\u2019est juste le reflet des mouvements d\u2019un cours. C\u2019est diff\u00e9rent du risque. L\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 dernier, nous avions une belle position (5% du fonds) dans Capri (ex-Michael Kors) quand Tapestry a annonc\u00e9 qu\u2019ils rachetaient le groupe. Le cours a pris +57% en 24 heures. \u00c7a a eu un impact important sur la volatilit\u00e9 du fonds. Mais ce n\u2019\u00e9tait pas du risque. C\u2019\u00e9tait juste une excellente nouvelle.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Une mani\u00e8re plus explicite de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 cette question, c\u2019est de regarder le MaxDrawDown. Concr\u00e8tement, \u00e7a repr\u00e9sente la perte maximale cumul\u00e9e entre le cours le plus haut sur une p\u00e9riode et le point le plus bas atteint par la suite. Si vous \u00eates rentr\u00e9 sur un actif \u2013 l\u2019action Nvidia ou le Nasdaq ou le Bitcoin etc\u2026 \u2013 au mauvais moment \u2013 c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire au top \u2013 quelle perte maximale vous avez vu s\u2019afficher au pire \u2013 au plus bas\u00a0?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>On a fait un petit programme qui calcule cela sur ce que vous voulez. Ci-dessous quelques exemples\u00a0(sur 25 ans) :<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Nasdaq\u00a0: -83%<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin\u00a0: -77%<\/p>\n<p>SP500\u00a0: -57%<\/p>\n<p>CAC40\u00a0: -65%<\/p>\n<p>Nvidia\u00a0: -90%<\/p>\n<p>LVMH\u00a0: -56%<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Si vous avez mis tous vos \u0153ufs dans un de ces paniers, il n\u2019y a pas eu des cadeaux au pied du sapin \u00e0 chaque No\u00ebl. C\u2019est pour cela que les fonds patrimoniaux \u2013 comme Monocle \u2013 ont \u00e9t\u00e9 cr\u00e9\u00e9s. Pour faire prosp\u00e9rer le patrimoine mais en le prot\u00e9geant. Ci-dessous quelques exemples de MaxDD pour quelques fonds patrimoniaux \u2013 nous ne mettons pas les noms mais ce sont les r\u00e9f\u00e9rences du secteur (sur 10 ans) :<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Fonds A\u00a0: -21%<\/p>\n<p>Fonds B : -19%<\/p>\n<p>Fonds C\u00a0: -22%<\/p>\n<p>Fonds D : -30%<\/p>\n<p>Fonds E : -18%<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Monocle : -9%<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Si vous pensez qu\u2019il n\u2019y a pas qu\u2019un seul sc\u00e9nario possible, et que les plus hauts de march\u00e9 doivent appeler \u00e0 se focaliser sur le risque, regarder le MaxDrawDown de son portefeuille me semble un choix raisonnable. Et si vous voulez un coup de main pour le faire \u2013 notre software calcule cela et pas mal d\u2019autres donn\u00e9es tr\u00e8s facilement -, n\u2019h\u00e9sitez pas.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Market and portfolio focus<\/strong><\/h2>\n<h2><strong>Behaviour:<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Du 01\/03 au 08\/03, le fonds perd 1.6% quand le CAC 40 gagne 1.2%, et le S&amp;P 500 perd 0.3%. Teleperformance reste le gros morceau de cette semaine. La ligne nous a fait perdre 1.4% suite \u00e0 l&rsquo;annonce de Klarna et de la publication de ses r\u00e9sultats. Pour plus d&rsquo;informations voici le lien du\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2024\/03\/08\/la-grosse-claque\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dernier billet<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Lines :<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Cette semaine, beaucoup de mouvements. Nous avons renforc\u00e9 nos positions sur Alphabet et Vipshop et nous avons sorti Dollar General et Futu Holdings du portefeuille.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Have a good weekend,<\/p>\n<p>Charles<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cThere are these two young fish swimming along, and they happen to meet an older fish swimming the other way, who nods at them and says, \u2018Morning, boys&#8230;.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4596,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4595","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Monocle - \u201cWhat the hell is risk ?\u201d<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - 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