{"id":4640,"date":"2024-04-11T19:21:26","date_gmt":"2024-04-11T17:21:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4640"},"modified":"2024-04-12T11:30:37","modified_gmt":"2024-04-12T09:30:37","slug":"4-milliards-de-kilos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2024\/04\/11\/4-milliards-de-kilos\/","title":{"rendered":"4 billion kilos"},"content":{"rendered":"

Today we're going to tell you about a company whose products you've already consumed without even knowing it existed. The company is Lamb Weston, and it makes a product so common you'd forget there were giants behind it: chips!<\/p>\n

Lamb Weston is one of these giants. A spin-off from Conagra, it is now worth $12 billion on the stock market, just like its former parent company (we told you spin-offs weren't bad\u00a0here<\/a>). It has sales in excess of $6 billion and 25% of the world's production capacity - 4 billion kilos - making it the #1 company in North America and the #2 in the world. Its main customer? An obscure company called McDonald's, which has accounted for just over 10% of sales for years.<\/p>\n

Last week, Lamb Weston published its Q3 results. The stock lost 20% on the same day, its worst ever session. Naturally, such a fall is intriguing.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source : Investing<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The main problem this quarter was the implementation of the ERP*. Put simply: it went wrong. Sales took a big hit: 8% less volume because of it, or $135m in turnover. Add to that a drop in demand from restaurants over the last few quarters : don't pour any more, the cup is full!<\/p>\n

We've seen all that. But we've also seen other things. A leader in an oligopolistic market. A critical supplier of a low-cost, high-margin ingredient to its customers. A market with long-term volume growth. Experienced management. An attractive valuation.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Lamb Weston multiple results:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source : Tikr<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Today we are paying <14x earnings for the next twelve months, the lowest ever. Earnings growth will return rapidly once the temporary problems have been ironed out.<\/p>\n

These two factors will therefore work in our favour, and we could even see a third appear with the increase in share buybacks. At this stage, our medium-term target is x2. Not bad for potatoes.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

*L'ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) est une logique qui int\u00e8gre et g\u00e8re les processus de base d'une entreprise (finances, inventaire, op\u00e9rations) au sein d'une plateforme unique et unifi\u00e9e.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Market and portfolio focus<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Behaviour:<\/strong><\/h3>\n

From 28\/03 to 05\/04, the fund was in balance when the CAC 40 lost 1.8% and the S&P 500 1.0%. The performance of Tidewater (+0.4%) and Vipshop (+0.1%) was offset by the rest of the positions.<\/p>\n

Lines:<\/strong><\/h3>\n

We sold our position in Alphabet and started a new position with Lamb Weston (4% of the fund).<\/p>\n

On the bond side, we increased our exposure to US short rates and took a position in US long rates. Our total exposure to these two lines is now 31%. At the same time, we reduced our position in Rivian.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Have a good week,<\/p>\n

Antoine<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today we're going to tell you about a company whose products you've already consumed without even knowing it existed. 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