{"id":4712,"date":"2024-06-12T11:59:45","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T09:59:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4712"},"modified":"2024-06-14T12:05:04","modified_gmt":"2024-06-14T10:05:04","slug":"wheels-on-the-bus-go-round-and-round","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2024\/06\/12\/wheels-on-the-bus-go-round-and-round\/","title":{"rendered":"THE FIRST VEHICLE TO BE AUTONOMOUS BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><u>1\/ La population de chauffeurs de poids lourds aux US est \u00e2g\u00e9e.\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Age des chauffeurs de poids lourds<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4718 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Truck-drivers-age.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"870\" height=\"457\" srcset=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Truck-drivers-age.png 870w, https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Truck-drivers-age-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Truck-drivers-age-768x403.png 768w, https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Truck-drivers-age-18x9.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 870px) 100vw, 870px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Source : Statista<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>2\/ Elle est \u00e2g\u00e9e car les jeunes ne veulent plus passer douze heures dans un camion<\/u><\/strong> &#8211; surtout que maintenant \u00e7a ne se fait plus de coller des images d\u00e9coup\u00e9es de Playboy dans la cabine.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>P\u00e9nurie de chauffeurs de poids lourds aux US de 2011 \u00e0 2030<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4717 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Truck-driver-shortage.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"813\" height=\"676\" srcset=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Truck-driver-shortage.png 813w, https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Truck-driver-shortage-300x249.png 300w, https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Truck-driver-shortage-768x639.png 768w, https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Truck-driver-shortage-14x12.png 14w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 813px) 100vw, 813px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Source : Statista<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>3\/ La solution c&rsquo;est \u00e7a :<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=nqFTUnxWU_M\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4720 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Video-image-Aurora.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"572\" height=\"320\" srcset=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Video-image-Aurora.png 572w, https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Video-image-Aurora-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Video-image-Aurora-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 572px) 100vw, 572px\" \/><\/a><em>Source : YouTube<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>Le camion autonome d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 par la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Aurora<\/u><\/strong>. Le principe est simple : Aurora installe des bases \u00e0 travers les Etats-Unis. Le camion relie les bases en conduite autonome et une fois arriv\u00e9, un chauffeur prend le relais et se charge de la desserte locale.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>4\/ Beaucoup d&rsquo;acteurs sur le secteur de la conduite autonome. Pourquoi celle-ci ?<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Parce ce que <strong><u>l&rsquo;\u00e9quipe n&rsquo;est pas la m\u00eame qu&rsquo;ailleurs<\/u><\/strong> :<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4715 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Founders-Aurora.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Founders-Aurora.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Founders-Aurora-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Founders-Aurora-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Founders-Aurora-18x12.jpeg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Sterling Anderson, Chris Urmson et Andrew Bagnell<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Chris Urmson<\/strong>, ancien directeur de l&rsquo;\u00e9quipe de conduite autonome de Google\/Alphabet Inc. (connue sous le nom de Waymo).<br \/>\nUrmson a plus de 15 ans d&rsquo;exp\u00e9rience dans la direction de programmes de v\u00e9hicules automatis\u00e9s. Avant de fonder Aurora, il a particip\u00e9 \u00e0 l&rsquo;\u00e9laboration du programme de conduite autonome de Google.<br \/>\nUrmson est titulaire d&rsquo;un doctorat en robotique de l&rsquo;universit\u00e9 Carnegie Mellon et d&rsquo;un bachelor en g\u00e9nie en ing\u00e9nierie informatique de l&rsquo;universit\u00e9 du Manitoba.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Sterling Anderson<\/strong>, ancien responsable de Tesla Autopilot, a pass\u00e9 plus de 12 ans \u00e0 diriger des programmes de v\u00e9hicules avanc\u00e9s. Avant de fonder Aurora, il a dirig\u00e9 la conception, le d\u00e9veloppement et le lancement de la Tesla Model X et a supervis\u00e9 l&rsquo;\u00e9quipe responsable du syst\u00e8me Tesla Autopilot. \u00c0 la fin des ann\u00e9es 2000, il a d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 le logiciel Intelligent Co-Pilot du MIT, qui a permis de grandes avanc\u00e9es dans le domaine de la conduite autonome.<br \/>\nIl d\u00e9tient plusieurs brevets et plus d&rsquo;une douzaine de publications sur les syst\u00e8mes de v\u00e9hicules autonomes. Il est titulaire d&rsquo;une ma\u00eetrise et d&rsquo;un doctorat du MIT.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Drew Bagnell<\/strong>, ancien responsable de l&rsquo;\u00e9quipe d&rsquo;autonomie et de perception d&rsquo;Uber.<br \/>\nCo-fondateur d&rsquo;Aurora et professeur consultant de l&rsquo;Universit\u00e9 Carnegie Mellon, il poss\u00e8de plus de vingt ans d&rsquo;exp\u00e9rience dans la robotique et l&rsquo;automatisation. Son groupe de recherche a remport\u00e9 plus d&rsquo;une douzaine de prix \u00e0 des conf\u00e9rences majeures du domaine.<br \/>\nIl est titulaire d&rsquo;un doctorat en robotique de Carnegie Mellon et d&rsquo;une licence en g\u00e9nie \u00e9lectrique de l&rsquo;universit\u00e9 de Floride.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Enfin, on a au capital Uber, Amazon et Toyota et comme partenaires privil\u00e9gi\u00e9s, les deux constructeurs automobiles Volvo et Paccar.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>5\/ Quand la commercialisation arrivera-t-elle ?<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Quand le \u00ab\u00a0Aurora Performance Indicator\u00a0\u00bb (API) qui indique le % de trajets ayant \u00e9t\u00e9 compl\u00e9t\u00e9s <strong><u>sans besoin d&rsquo;intervention aura atteint 90%<\/u><\/strong>.<br \/>\nVoyez ci-dessous la vitesse de progression de cet indicateur sur un an :<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Aurora Performance Indicator<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4714 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Aurora-intervention-humaine.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"516\" height=\"341\" srcset=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Aurora-intervention-humaine.png 516w, https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Aurora-intervention-humaine-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Aurora-intervention-humaine-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 516px) 100vw, 516px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Source : Aurora Innovation<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u00ab\u00a0Depuis septembre 2021, nous avons livr\u00e9 de mani\u00e8re autonome (sous la supervision d&rsquo;op\u00e9rateurs) 5 450 chargements, en parcourant environ 1,5 million de kilom\u00e8tres commerciaux, avec une ponctualit\u00e9 proche de 100 % pour nos clients. [&#8230;] Alors que <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>nous nous pr\u00e9parons au lancement commercial, nous continuons \u00e0 transporter du fret de mani\u00e8re autonome<\/strong><\/span> pour tous nos clients pilotes, notamment FedEx, Werner, Schneider, Hirschbach et Uber Freight. Nous programmons actuellement environ 120 chargements commerciaux par semaine, soit le triple du volume commercial que nous ex\u00e9cutions il y a un an.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>6\/ La r\u00e9gulation est valid\u00e9e<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4716 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Legislation-US-autonomous.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"684\" height=\"303\" srcset=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Legislation-US-autonomous.png 684w, https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Legislation-US-autonomous-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Legislation-US-autonomous-18x8.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 684px) 100vw, 684px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>7\/ Comment est valoris\u00e9e une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 de ce genre ?<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>Les comptes sont simples<\/u><\/strong> : pas de revenus (solution pas encore commercialis\u00e9e). Cash $1.0 Mds, pas de dette, consomme $150 M par trimestre. Capitalisation $3.6 Mds.<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>Vous retenez bien que \u00e7a ne fait encore aucun chiffre d&rsquo;affaires<\/u><\/strong>, donc ce n&rsquo;est pas Danone comme stock ! La volatilit\u00e9 est tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9e (90%). Mais c&rsquo;est une belle histoire de long terme avec une \u00e9quipe hors norme. Position dans le fonds : 2%.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Focus march\u00e9s et portefeuille<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Comportement<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Du 31 Mai au 7 Juin, le fonds a gagn\u00e9 0.45%, quand le CAC 40 et le S&amp;P 500 gagnait respectivement 0.11% et 1.32%.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7a a pas mal remu\u00e9 la semaine derni\u00e8re sur les taux longs US. On avait bien augment\u00e9 notre position sur futures quand ils avaient approch\u00e9 des 4.8%, ce qui a bien pay\u00e9 cette semaine : 90bps de contribution. On a sold\u00e9 la ligne quand les taux sont pass\u00e9s sous les 4.5% avant de reprendre une position moindre hier (exposition de 15%).<\/p>\n<p>Notre poche actions nous a fait perdre un peu plus de 30bps sur la semaine. Deux lignes se distinguent. D\u2019abord Five Below, qu\u2019on a rentr\u00e9 le jour de sa grande d\u00e9gringolade sous les 110$ : 30bps de contribution. L\u2019autre, c\u2019est Tidewater, sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 dans les services p\u00e9troliers offshore. L\u2019action a suivi le cours du p\u00e9trole et nous a co\u00fbt\u00e9 plus de 30bps largement rattrap\u00e9s hier &#8211; +13% &#8211; quand l\u2019inclusion du titre dans le S&amp;P 600 a \u00e9t\u00e9 annonc\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<p>On termine la semaine avec une exposition brute action de 54% (nette 39%) et une exposition cr\u00e9dit corporate et taux courts am\u00e9ricains \u00e0 28%.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Lignes<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 d\u2019augmenter l\u2019exposition de notre poche actions cette semaine, du coup il y a pas mal de mouvements.<\/p>\n<p>D\u2019abord, on a renforc\u00e9 certaines de nos positions existantes.<\/p>\n<p>Berry Global, Lamb Weston, et Pernod Ricard ont \u00e9t\u00e9 pass\u00e9es \u00e0 4% chacune, tout comme Lululemon une fois le souffl\u00e9 de ses tr\u00e8s bons r\u00e9sultats un peu retomb\u00e9. On a profit\u00e9 de la chute du p\u00e9trole pour passer Tidewater \u00e0 6% quand elle \u00e9tait encore sous les 95$ &#8211; on a bien b\u00e9n\u00e9fici\u00e9 de la hausse d\u2019hier. Enfin, on a doubl\u00e9 des lignes plus petites mais avec des opportunit\u00e9s immenses : Affirm, Aurora et Duolingo p\u00e8sent 2% chacune maintenant.<\/p>\n<p>Dans le m\u00eame temps, on a ajout\u00e9 six nouvelles positions. On a mis 4% dans Five Below (retailer discount am\u00e9ricain) &#8211; suite \u00e0 sa gamelle post r\u00e9sultats \u2013 et dans Brembo, le sp\u00e9cialiste italien des freins. Chez les quatre autres soci\u00e9t\u00e9s on a mis 2% : Olin \u2013 leader de la production de chlore et de soude caustique -, U-Haul \u2013 sp\u00e9cialiste du camion de d\u00e9m\u00e9nagement aux US -, Marr &#8211; #1 de la distribution alimentaire pour les professionnels en Italie -, et Grab \u2013 sorte de Uber du sud est asiatique.<\/p>\n<p>C\u00f4t\u00e9 sortie, c\u2019est une page qui se tourne. On \u00e9tait investi dans Biontech depuis pas mal de temps car on estimait que la valeur de la franchise Covid n\u2019\u00e9tait pas refl\u00e9t\u00e9e dans le cours. Notre th\u00e8se s\u2019est d\u00e9lit\u00e9e \u00e0 mesure que les nouvelles vagues de Covid refluaient. Les craintes concernant la nouvelle grippe aviaire aux Etats-Unis ont fait rebondir le titre ces derni\u00e8res semaines et on en a profit\u00e9 pour solder notre position sur ces niveaux.<\/p>\n<p>On a dor\u00e9navant une exposition brute actions sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 55%. En parall\u00e8le, on a pris une assurance sous la forme d\u2019un short S&amp;P 500 qui ram\u00e8ne notre exposition nette \u00e0 39%.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>A la prochaine<\/p>\n<p>Charles<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>1\/ La population de chauffeurs de poids lourds aux US est \u00e2g\u00e9e.\u00a0 &nbsp; Age des chauffeurs de poids lourds Source : Statista &nbsp; 2\/ Elle est \u00e2g\u00e9e car&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4730,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Monocle - LE PREMIER VEHICULE QUI SERA AUTONOME AVANT LA FIN DE L&#039;ANNEE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Aurora Innovation, c&#039;est une belle histoire de long terme avec une \u00e9quipe hors norme.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - 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