{"id":4871,"date":"2024-09-13T14:23:30","date_gmt":"2024-09-13T12:23:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4871"},"modified":"2024-09-13T14:23:30","modified_gmt":"2024-09-13T12:23:30","slug":"kelly-en-images","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2024\/09\/13\/kelly-en-images\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Kelly en Images\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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Toutes mes excuses pour ce billet tardif, Antoine est en vacances et les march\u00e9s bougent donc entre le four, le moulin et le billet c’est le rush.<\/p>\n

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Avec le\u00a0niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9 des march\u00e9s<\/strong>, il est utile de\u00a0se concentrer sur le risque<\/strong>. Comme disait Harley Bassman, le cr\u00e9ateur de l’indice MOVE*, le\u00a0premier outil de gestion du risque c’est le sizing<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

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On a parl\u00e9 quelquefois dans le billet du crit\u00e8re de Kelly pour g\u00e9rer la taille des positions. Le crit\u00e8re de\u00a0Kelly est une strat\u00e9gie utilis\u00e9e pour d\u00e9terminer la part de votre argent que vous devriez miser ou investir afin de maximiser votre croissance \u00e0 long terme, tout en g\u00e9rant le risque<\/strong>. Il est populaire parmi les joueurs et les investisseurs car il permet d’\u00e9quilibrer le compromis entre la prise de risque et la r\u00e9alisation de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices.<\/p>\n

Voici comment cela fonctionne :<\/u><\/p>\n

Vous commencez par examiner deux choses :<\/p>\n

1. Il s’agit de votre probabilit\u00e9 de r\u00e9ussite (bas\u00e9e sur vos recherches, votre analyse ou votre intuition).<\/p>\n

2. Si vous gagnez, combien r\u00e9cup\u00e9rez-vous par rapport \u00e0 ce que vous avez investi ?<\/p>\n

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Le crit\u00e8re de\u00a0Kelly vous aide \u00e0 calculer le \u00ab\u00a0bon\u00a0\u00bb montant d’argent \u00e0 risquer<\/strong>\u00a0en fonction de ces deux facteurs.\u00a0L’id\u00e9e est que si vous avez un avantage<\/strong>, c’est-\u00e0-dire si vous \u00eates \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s s\u00fbr de gagner plus que vous ne perdez,\u00a0vous devriez parier plus, mais pas trop<\/strong>. Cela vous permet de maximiser votre rendement sans pour autant tout risquer.<\/p>\n

Un exemple simple :<\/p>\n

Supposons que vous jouiez \u00e0 un\u00a0jeu pour lequel vous avez 60 % de chance de gagner, et que si vous gagnez, vous obtenez le double de votre mise<\/strong>.\u00a0Quelle est la taille id\u00e9ale pour obtenir le gain maximum en \u00e9vitant les sc\u00e9narii o\u00f9 vous rentrez \u00e0 pied du casino ?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nous avons d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 un outil simple pour visualiser les r\u00e9sultats.<\/p>\n

Ci-dessous voici ce que \u00e7a donne\u00a0si je parie $10 par tour<\/strong>\u00a0:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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\"SnP500<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Je ne perds jamais tout [taux de perte : 0%] mais je ne gagne pas beaucoup [rendement moyen : $81].<\/p>\n

Maintenant voil\u00e0 une\u00a0autre<\/strong>\u00a0simulation o\u00f9 je parie $80 par tour\u00a0<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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\"SnP500<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Dans ce cas-l\u00e0, quand je gagne, je gagne beaucoup plus – je d\u00e9passe les $1 000 finaux sur plusieurs sc\u00e9narios alors que mon max \u00e9tait \u00e0 $300 dans le cas pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent.\u00a0Mais dans 60% des cas, je perds tout.<\/p>\n

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Intuitivement on sent que la taille optimale est entre ces deux extr\u00eames. Kelly avait math\u00e9matiquement r\u00e9solu l’\u00e9quation et arrivait \u00e0 40% de la mise soit $40 dans notre cas.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\"SnP500<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Mais si la probabilit\u00e9 de gagner \u00e9tait plus faible, il faudrait r\u00e9duire cette taille.<\/p>\n

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Principaux enseignements :<\/strong><\/p>\n

– Plus de chances de gagner ? Si les\u00a0chances sont en votre faveur<\/strong>\u00a0et que la\u00a0r\u00e9compense potentielle<\/strong>\u00a0est\u00a0\u00e9lev\u00e9e<\/strong>, vous pouvez vous permettre de\u00a0risquer une plus grande partie de votre argent<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

– Un risque \u00e9lev\u00e9, une faible certitude ? Si vous n’\u00eates\u00a0pas s\u00fbr du r\u00e9sultat ou si la r\u00e9compense ne justifie pas le risque, r\u00e9duisez votre mise<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

– Le crit\u00e8re de\u00a0Kelly<\/strong>\u00a0est\u00a0id\u00e9al pour maximiser le profit<\/strong>\u00a0final<\/strong>,\u00a0mais<\/strong>\u00a0il\u00a0peut aussi entra\u00eener des fluctuations importantes de votre fortune<\/strong>. C’est pourquoi certaines personnes utilisent\u00a0une version att\u00e9nu\u00e9e, ne risquant qu’une fraction de ce que Kelly sugg\u00e8re<\/strong>, afin d’\u00e9viter les montagnes russes des gros gains et des grosses pertes.\u00a0Ed Thorp, le math\u00e9maticien – g\u00e9rant de Hedge Fund, sugg\u00e9rait \u00bd Kelly.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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En r\u00e9sum\u00e9, il s’agit de trouver l’\u00e9quilibre entre l’audace indispensable pour que le gain soit significatif et la prudence n\u00e9cessaire pour ne pas tout perdre d’un coup.<\/u><\/p>\n

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Pour ceux qui viennent \u00e0 Patrimonia, nous emmenons notre simulateur Kelly sur le stand (B26), n’h\u00e9sitez pas !<\/p>\n

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Focus march\u00e9s et portefeuille<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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March\u00e9\/Portefeuille<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Sur la semaine du 30 ao\u00fbt au 06 septembre, le fonds perd environ 1% et repasse juste sous le z\u00e9ro \u00e0 -0.3%. Ce fut une semaine agit\u00e9e : le MSCI c\u00e8de -4.3% emmenant nos lignes avec lui : de Duolingo (-2%) \u00e0 Ouster (-17%). Comme notre exposition action reste faible (10% nette), pas d’enjeu majeur, et tout a remont\u00e9 significativement cette semaine.<\/p>\n

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Nous restons dubitatifs sur la capacit\u00e9 du march\u00e9 \u00e0 aller casser le All-Time-High touch\u00e9 mi-juillet et retouch\u00e9 le 30 ao\u00fbt et gardons donc des r\u00e9serves en cash.<\/p>\n

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Pas de nouveau mouvement \u00e0 signaler cette semaine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Bonne semaine,<\/p>\n

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Charles<\/p>\n

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*L’indice MOVE est une mesure implicite de la volatilit\u00e9 du march\u00e9 obligataire<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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