{"id":4899,"date":"2024-10-18T18:02:20","date_gmt":"2024-10-18T16:02:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4899"},"modified":"2024-10-18T18:02:20","modified_gmt":"2024-10-18T16:02:20","slug":"le-pistolet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2024\/10\/18\/le-pistolet\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Le pistolet\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

On sait que le monde se divise en deux cat\u00e9gories : ceux qui ont un pistolet charg\u00e9 et ceux qui creusent. Le retail aux Etats-Unis, c\u2019est la m\u00eame chose.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

C\u00f4t\u00e9 pistolet, les \u00ab\u00a0Big box\u00a0\u00bb retailers comme Walmart.<\/p>\n

C\u00f4t\u00e9 pelle, les \u00ab\u00a0Small box\u00a0\u00bb retailers comme Dollar General.<\/p>\n

\n

En bourse, \u00e7a se traduit par Walmart \u00e0 +55% depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e et +220% sur 10 ans. Pour Dollar General c\u2019est -40% et +35%* respectivement. Pas la m\u00eame ligue.<\/p>\n

\n

Sauf que quand on regarde les chiffres op\u00e9rationnels, c\u2019est pas la m\u00eame histoire.<\/p>\n

\n

Walmart\u00a0:<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n

Chiffre d\u2019affaires 2014\/2023\u00a0: 485Mds$ \/ 650Mds$<\/p>\n

R\u00e9sultat op\u00e9rationnel 2014\/2023\u00a0: 27Mds$ \/ 27Mds$<\/p>\n

Capitalisation boursi\u00e8re 2014\/2023\u00a0: 250Mds$ \/ 650Mds$<\/p>\n

\n

Dollar General\u00a0:<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n

Chiffre d\u2019affaires 2014\/2023\u00a0: 19Mds$ \/ 39Mds$<\/p>\n

R\u00e9sultat op\u00e9rationnel 2014\/2023\u00a0: 1.7Mds$ \/ 2.5Mds$<\/p>\n

Capitalisation boursi\u00e8re 2014\/2023 : 19Mds$ \/ 18Mds$*<\/p>\n

\n

\n

Qu\u2019est-ce qu\u2019on en retire ?<\/p>\n

D\u2019abord, on est surpris que le r\u00e9sultat de Walmart n\u2019ait pas boug\u00e9 en 10 ans.<\/p>\n

Ensuite que la performance de Walmart vient de l\u2019expansion de son multiple. C\u2019est bien visible sur le graph ci-dessous, surtout le mouvement de 2024 o\u00f9 on est pass\u00e9 de 23x \u00e0 32x.\u00a0Walmart est un paquebot valoris\u00e9 comme une vedette aujourd’hui.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Enfin, que l\u2019une est trait\u00e9e comme moribonde, quand l\u2019autre est port\u00e9e aux nues.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Dollar General avait trois probl\u00e8mes quand on avait investi la premi\u00e8re fois il y a un an.<\/p>\n

1\/ Le CEO d\u2019alors, Jeff Owen, n\u2019\u00e9tait vraiment pas au niveau.<\/p>\n

2\/ Les stocks \u00e9taient trop importants.<\/p>\n

3\/ La client\u00e8le de Dollar General souffrait et diminuait ses d\u00e9penses.<\/p>\n

\n

Les deux premiers points sont r\u00e9gl\u00e9s. Todd Vasos \u2013 CEO du groupe entre 2015 et 2022 \u2013 a \u00e9t\u00e9 rappel\u00e9 par le board. Il a coup\u00e9 drastiquement dans les stocks, notamment en baissant les prix. Reste le troisi\u00e8me point, toujours d\u2019actualit\u00e9 et les clients plus ais\u00e9s – qui viennent quand la situation \u00e9conomique devient plus tendue \u2013 ne sont pas encore l\u00e0. Op\u00e9rationnellement, il y a du mieux donc.<\/p>\n

\n

D\u2019autant plus que Dollar General continue \u00e0 cro\u00eetre en augmentant les ventes dans ses magasins existants (same store sales) et en ouvrant de nouveaux magasins. Il y en aura un peu moins de 21,000 \u00e0 la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, chacun faisant 2M$ de chiffre d\u2019affaires.<\/p>\n

\n

Quand on prend tout \u00e7a en compte, \u00e0 80$, Dollar General traite \u00e0 12x des r\u00e9sultats d\u00e9pr\u00e9ci\u00e9s et <8x des r\u00e9sultats normalis\u00e9s. On est loin des chiffres des Big box retailers. Pas s\u00fbr que le pistolet reste encore longtemps dans les mains de Walmart. On a mis 3% de Dollar General dans Monocle.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Market and portfolio focus<\/strong><\/p>\n

Du 4 au 11 octobre, Monocle fait -0.3% contre 0.5% pour le CAC 40 et 1.1% pour le S&P 500.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\u00c7a a pas mal boug\u00e9 sur les taux longs am\u00e9ricains la semaine derni\u00e8re, pass\u00e9s de 4.20% \u00e0 4.40% sur la semaine. Du coup notre large position sur les obligations 2053 (26%) a \u00e9t\u00e9 un peu secou\u00e9e, nous co\u00fbtant 40bps.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est Galapagos, c\u00f4t\u00e9 actions, qui est venu en partie compenser cette baisse. L\u2019arriv\u00e9e d\u2019Oleg Nodelman (dont on vous parlait\u00a0here<\/a>) au board est une bonne nouvelle et devrait mettre le management en action.<\/p>\n

\n

On a fait rentrer 3 nouvelles positions dans le portefeuille cette semaine.<\/p>\n

\n

Dollar General dont je viens de vous parler. Ensuite Kering, dont les d\u00e9boires nous offrent un point d\u2019entr\u00e9e int\u00e9ressant au moment o\u00f9 Stefano Cantino (ex Louis Vuttion) prend les r\u00eanes chez Gucci et o\u00f9 Maria Grazia Chiuri (Dior) pourrait reprendre le design. Et enfin Bayer, sur laquelle nous avons investi \u2013 comme pour les deux autres \u2013 3% du portefeuille.<\/p>\n

\n

Notre exposition nette actions est aujourd\u2019hui \u00e0 19%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On sait que le monde se divise en deux cat\u00e9gories : ceux qui ont un pistolet charg\u00e9 et ceux qui creusent. 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