{"id":4910,"date":"2024-10-24T16:43:12","date_gmt":"2024-10-24T14:43:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4910"},"modified":"2024-10-24T16:43:12","modified_gmt":"2024-10-24T14:43:12","slug":"gambling-man","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2024\/10\/24\/gambling-man\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Gambling Man\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Qui \u00e9tait l’homme le plus riche du monde le 15 f\u00e9vrier 2000 ? Non ce n’\u00e9tait pas Bill Gates (2\u00e8me), ni son cofondateur Paul Allen (3\u00e8me). Ce n’\u00e9tait pas Warren Buffett non plus (4\u00e8me).<\/span><\/p>\n

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C’\u00e9tait un Zainichi, c’est-\u00e0-dire un de ces \u00e9migr\u00e9s de Cor\u00e9e au Japon apr\u00e8s la Seconde Guerre mondiale, et qui \u00e9taient trait\u00e9s l\u00e0-bas comme des citoyens de race inf\u00e9rieure – un exemple : dans les a\u00e9roports ils ne pouvaient pas faire la queue dans la ligne r\u00e9serv\u00e9e aux Japonais pure souche.<\/p>\n

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Ce Zainichi s’appelait Masayoshi Son. Il avait 43 ans \u00e0 l’\u00e9poque et \u00e9tait arriv\u00e9 \u00e0 cette\u00a0pole position<\/em>\u00a0\u00e0 coup de vision et de \u00ab\u00a0chutzpah\u00a0\u00bb comme ils disent en Yiddish, c’est-\u00e0-dire d’extr\u00eame confiance en soi. Dans la biographie que vient de sortir Lionel Barber sur lui (\u00ab\u00a0Gambling Man\u00a0\u00bb), on a cette citation du p\u00e8re de Masa (son surnom) :<\/p>\n

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\u00ab\u00a0Parce que Masa est convaincu qu’il est un g\u00e9nie, les bonnes id\u00e9es suivent. Si vous croyez r\u00e9ellement en vos capacit\u00e9s, si vous \u00eates persuad\u00e9 d’\u00eatre un g\u00e9nie, alors les \u00e9checs ne font que rebondir sur vous, vous les \u00e9vacuez d’un revers de main juste avec votre volont\u00e9.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

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Illustration de ce revers de main : au 31 d\u00e9cembre 2000, Masa avait perdu 96% de sa fortune.<\/p>\n

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Et il est l\u00e0 aujourd’hui, vingt ans plus tard, \u00e0 la 51\u00e8me place du classement mondial Forbes, avec une fortune estim\u00e9e \u00e0 $33Mds.<\/p>\n

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Elle est peut \u00eatre ici la le\u00e7on de Masa : prenez du risque. Evidemment pour moi qui me suis plut\u00f4t focalis\u00e9 sur la r\u00e9duction du risque, le tintement de cette clochette me pique le tympan. Mais j’entends, n\u00e9anmoins.<\/p>\n

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Pour prendre du risque, il faut d’abord ma\u00eetriser l’animal. Il y a dix ans j’ai lu \u00ab\u00a0Education of a Speculator\u00a0\u00bb le livre de Victor Niederhoffer.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Niederhoffer \u00e9tait un des lieutenants de Soros, un fou – 5 fois champion US de squash, passionn\u00e9 de jeu de dames – et un tr\u00e8s bon. Mais la v\u00e9ritable le\u00e7on du livre, publi\u00e9 en 1997, allait arriver quelques mois plus tard : mi 1997 la crise asiatique d\u00e9marre, les march\u00e9s se retournent et Niederhoffer saute.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Donc il faut prendre du risque mais avec sagacit\u00e9. Plut\u00f4t Prost que Senna. La premi\u00e8re \u00e9tape c’est de d\u00e9finir combien on va mettre d’argent sur la table. Les gens de Elm Research ont mis au point ce\u00a0simulateur du jeu de Pile ou Face<\/a>\u00a0avec une pi\u00e8ce tilt\u00e9e pour tomber 60% du temps sur pile. Dans leur jeu, ils donnent $25, vous laissent jouer 30 mn et\u00a0regardent les r\u00e9sultats finaux<\/a>. Ils ont pris un \u00e9chantillon d’\u00e9tudiants en finance et de professionnels pour leurs essais.<\/p>\n

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Quand on lit les r\u00e9sultats, on est d’abord \u00e9tonn\u00e9 : dans un jeu truqu\u00e9 et dont les joueurs savent qu’il est truqu\u00e9, on a quand m\u00eame 28% des joueurs qui perdent tout. 67% des joueurs vont \u00e0 un moment parier sur face, et 48% vont parier plus de 5 fois sur face.<\/p>\n

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Et apr\u00e8s avoir lu cela j’essaie le jeu. Et j’ai lu l’\u00e9tude avant. Et je connais le crit\u00e8re de Kelly. Et j’ai bien compris que la pi\u00e8ce \u00e9tait tilt\u00e9e sur Pile. Donc je ne joue que pile. Mais je change la taille de mes paris. Parce qu’apr\u00e8s trois fois Face de suite, je me dis que forc\u00e9ment, pour arriver au 60% de Pile, il faut que \u00e7a change. Et ne voil\u00e0-t-il pas que je termine en slip au bout de dix minutes.<\/p>\n

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N’ayant pas totalement le mental de Masa, il me faut dix minutes pour absorber la le\u00e7on puis m’y remettre en appliquant b\u00eatement le Kelly – je vous \u00e9pargne les maths compliqu\u00e9s pour arriver \u00e0 \u00ab\u00a0Tu paries 20% de ton capital \u00e0 chaque fois.\u00a0\u00bb Le r\u00e9sultat est \u00e9videmment nettement diff\u00e9rent et je finis par toucher le maximum du jeu qui est limit\u00e9 \u00e0 $250 ou dix fois la mise.<\/p>\n

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Excellente le\u00e7on sur le sizing. Sur ces sujets, o\u00f9 on parle de risque et de maths, c’est donc plus la discipline que l’intelligence qui compte. Et si c’est d\u00e9montr\u00e9 ici sur un jeu aussi ferm\u00e9 que pile ou face c’est d’autant plus vrai sur un jeu infiniment plus complexe qu’est le march\u00e9.<\/p>\n

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Maintenant que la taille des piles de jetons \u00e0 mettre sur la table est d\u00e9finie, il reste \u00e0 trouver les cases. L\u00e0 on rentre dans cet \u00e9clectisme \u00e0 la Monocle dont je suis assez content : il y a de la conduite autonome – Aurora – de la mode plus \u00e0 la mode – Kering – ou de l’\u00e9ducation version demain – Duolingo.<\/p>\n

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J’aime cette s\u00e9lection, la stimulation intellectuelle qu’elle procure et ce jeu o\u00f9 il faut en m\u00eame temps m\u00ealer une vision sur l’avenir avec \u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9 une autre vision qui doit \u00eatre l\u00e0 et qui est le plan B – c’est \u00e0 dire le cas o\u00f9 on a tort – tout cela avec une volont\u00e9 \u00e0 la Masa et une discipline sur le risque \u00e0 la Kelly.<\/p>\n

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Le seul souci c’est que parfois les nuits sont compliqu\u00e9es : la nuit se peuple de r\u00eaves o\u00f9 passent des camions Aurora roulant sur des routes d\u00e9sertes avec sur le c\u00f4t\u00e9 quelques jolies filles peu v\u00eatues ne serait-ce un petit carr\u00e9 de tissu de chez Gucci \u00e9poque Tom Ford avec la chouette – mascote de Duolingo – qui se baladent dans le ciel.<\/p>\n

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ChatGPT dessine ca comme \u00e7a :
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Market and portfolio focus<\/strong><\/p>\n

Du 11 au 18 octobre, Monocle fait +0.5% tout comme le CAC 40. Le S&P 500 fait +0.8% sur la p\u00e9riode.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Pas de grand mouvement la semaine derni\u00e8re, avec le d\u00e9but des publications de r\u00e9sultats. Les grandes man\u0153uvres sont pr\u00e9vues pour la semaine prochaine avec les publications de Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet et Meta.<\/p>\n

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On note tout de m\u00eame que Galapagos continue \u00e0 b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier de l\u2019effet Oleg Nodelman. La position nous rapporte 20bps sur la semaine. On attend de voir s\u2019ils feront des annonces la semaine prochaine lors de la publication des r\u00e9sultats.<\/p>\n

\n

Notre exposition nette actions ne bouge pas et reste \u00e0 19%.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Qui \u00e9tait l’homme le plus riche du monde le 15 f\u00e9vrier 2000 ? Non ce n’\u00e9tait pas Bill Gates (2\u00e8me), ni son cofondateur Paul Allen (3\u00e8me). Ce n’\u00e9tait…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4913,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4910","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - "Gambling Man"<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - "Gambling Man"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Qui \u00e9tait l’homme le plus riche du monde le 15 f\u00e9vrier 2000 ? 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