{"id":4916,"date":"2024-10-30T11:16:56","date_gmt":"2024-10-30T10:16:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4916"},"modified":"2024-10-30T11:16:56","modified_gmt":"2024-10-30T10:16:56","slug":"la-juge-shabille-en-prada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2024\/10\/30\/la-juge-shabille-en-prada\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0La juge s\u2019habille en Prada\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00ab\u202f- Pourquoi les femmes ont besoin de tant de sacs ? T’en as un, tu fous tout ton bordel dedans et voil\u00e0 c’est r\u00e9gl\u00e9 !\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

– La mode n’a rien \u00e0 voir avec ce qui est utile, un accessoire est seulement une pi\u00e8ce, une iconographie utilis\u00e9e pour exprimer une identit\u00e9 individuelle.\u202f\u00bb<\/p>\n

Le diable s\u2019habille en Prada, 2006.<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

La semaine derni\u00e8re, on a eu un remake. Pas d\u2019Anne Hathaway ni de Meryl Streep cette fois. Dans le r\u00f4le principal, Jennifer Rochon. Elle n\u2019est pas actrice, elle est juge. Et je ne sais pas si elle s\u2019habille en Prada, mais elle est aussi radicale que Miranda Priestly \u2013 le personnage de Meryl Streep – :\u00a0 elle vient de stopper l\u2019acquisition de Capri (Michael Kors, Versace, Jimmy Choo) par Tapestry (Coach, Kate Spade).<\/p>\n

\n

Son\u00a0rapport<\/a>\u00a0fait 169 pages. Le ton est donn\u00e9 d\u00e8s les premiers mots\u202f:\u00a0\u00ab\u202fAntitrust has come into fashion<\/em>\u202f\u00bb. Le reste n\u2019a rien \u00e0 envier au dialogue du film.<\/p>\n

\n

Extrait choisi\u202f:\u00a0\u00ab\u202fEn minimisant l’importance des sacs \u00e0 main en tant qu’articles non essentiels et discr\u00e9tionnaires que les consommatrices peuvent simplement choisir de ne pas acheter si le prix est trop \u00e9lev\u00e9, on n\u00e9glige le fait qu\u2019ils sont importants pour de nombreuses femmes, non seulement pour s’exprimer \u00e0 travers la mode, mais aussi pour les aider dans leur vie quotidienne – du soutien \u00e0 leurs aspirations professionnelles en transportant leurs outils de travail \u00e0 la maison ou en inspirant confiance dans les environnements professionnels, jusqu’au transport d’objets personnels importants.\u202f\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

En clair, la juge Rochon donne raison \u00e0 la FTC* \u2013 l\u2019antitrust US \u2013 et \u00e0 Lina Khan, sa patronne (dont on vous parlait\u00a0here<\/a>)\u202f: le rapprochement des deux groupes cr\u00e9erait un acteur trop important – capable d\u2019augmenter les prix \u00e0 sa guise et de r\u00e9duire le salaire de ses employ\u00e9s – tant sa domination sur le march\u00e9 serait extr\u00eame (pour ceux qui sont \u00e0 Paris, je vous recommande d\u2019aller voir la boutique Pol\u00e8ne square Louvois puis d\u2019aller voir une boutique Michael Kors. Vous verrez par vous-m\u00eame s\u2019il est impossible de rivaliser.)\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Pour les actionnaires de Capri, le coup est rude. L\u2019annonce est tomb\u00e9e jeudi soir. Dans les 24 heures qui ont suivi, plus de la moiti\u00e9 des titres ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9chang\u00e9s. Pas mal de monde s\u2019est retrouv\u00e9 les doigts coinc\u00e9s dans la porte quand la juge Rochon l\u2019a claqu\u00e9e. R\u00e9sultat, c\u2019\u00e9tait la ru\u00e9e pour vendre ses titres, -50% vendredi.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

De notre c\u00f4t\u00e9, on a eu 2 r\u00e9actions. D\u2019abord, on \u00e9tait contents d\u2019avoir revendu notre position en juillet quand on estimait que la probabilit\u00e9 que le deal aille au bout \u00e9tait trop faible.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Ensuite, on a repris nos crayons et revu le cas\u202f: \u00e0 21$, l\u2019histoire n\u2019est pas la m\u00eame qu\u2019\u00e0 40. On fait 3 constats\u202f: 1\/ Capri continue \u00e0 g\u00e9n\u00e9rer du cash, 2\/ sa valorisation est au plus bas depuis des ann\u00e9es, et 3\/ ses marques ont de la valeur. Quand l\u2019accord Capri\/Tapestry a \u00e9t\u00e9 annonc\u00e9 l\u2019an dernier, Capri a sorti un\u00a0proxy<\/a>\u00a0relatant les diff\u00e9rentes \u00e9tapes des discussions. En plus de mentionner Tapestry, il fait allusion \u00e0 3 autres soci\u00e9t\u00e9s non sp\u00e9cifi\u00e9es (Exor est soup\u00e7onn\u00e9e de faire partie du lot), int\u00e9ress\u00e9es par le rachat de Versace et Jimmy Choo seulement. Elles reviendront s\u00fbrement toquer \u00e0 la porte si le plan Tapestry\/Capri tombe d\u00e9finitivement \u00e0 l\u2019eau (malgr\u00e9 l\u2019appel des deux groupes, il y a maintenant peu de chances que l\u2019op\u00e9ration se fasse selon les sp\u00e9cialistes de l\u2019antitrust).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\" \"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tout \u00e7a cr\u00e9e un seuil pour la valo de Capri et laisse pas mal d\u2019upside. On en a mis 3% dans le fonds. Monocle aussi se met \u00e0 la mode.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\n

\n

*Assez marrant de voir que le deal a \u00e9t\u00e9 valid\u00e9 en Europe mais retoqu\u00e9 aux US. Tout \u00e7a interroge quand m\u00eame plus largement sur le M&A. Quid d\u2019un rachat de Tiffany par LVMH aujourd\u2019hui\u202f? Microsoft et Activision\u202f?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Market and portfolio focus<\/strong><\/p>\n

Du 18 au 25 octobre, Monocle fait -1.1%, le CAC 40 -1.5% et le S&P 500 -1.0%.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

L\u2019essentiel de notre performance vient de deux lignes. D\u2019abord notre position sur les taux longs US. Le taux 30 ans est pass\u00e9 de 4.38% \u00e0 4.50% entre le 18 et le 25, nous faisant perdre une cinquantaine de bps.<\/p>\n

\n

L\u2019autre c\u2019est Capri. Dans le tumulte de la journ\u00e9e de vendredi, nous ne sommes malheureusement pas rentr\u00e9s au plus bas, ce qui nous co\u00fbte 25bps.<\/p>\n

\n

On a fait deux op\u00e9rations la semaine derni\u00e8re. La premi\u00e8re c\u2019est l\u2019achat de Capri dont on vient de vous parler (3%). La seconde c\u2019est le renforcement de notre position dans Kering. La publication de la semaine et le nouveau profit warning \u00e9taient attendus par le march\u00e9 visiblement. Il ne reste plus beaucoup de vendeurs (plus aucun ?) dans le titre. On a revu notre cas et remis 2% pour en avoir 5% au total.<\/p>\n

\n

Note exposition action nette est dor\u00e9navant \u00e0 24%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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