{"id":4926,"date":"2024-11-12T10:03:03","date_gmt":"2024-11-12T09:03:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4926"},"modified":"2024-11-12T10:03:03","modified_gmt":"2024-11-12T09:03:03","slug":"election-night","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2024\/11\/12\/election-night\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Election Night\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Justement, il n’est pas facile de vous sortir un truc int\u00e9ressant un lendemain d’\u00e9lections o\u00f9 tous les experts en politique am\u00e9ricaine vont sortir autant de papiers.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Je risque n\u00e9anmoins quatre r\u00e9flexions sur le sujet\u00a0 :<\/p>\n

\n

1\/ Ce n’est pas une immense surprise vu que les sp\u00e9cialistes du sujet (@natesilver<\/a>) disaient que c’\u00e9tait vraiment du pile ou face.<\/p>\n

\n

2\/\u00a0Pourquoi Harris a-t-elle perdu? Pleins de raisons – entre autres l’incroyable animal politique qu’est Trump – mais je retiens cette r\u00e9ponse au journaliste Sunny Hostin le 8 octobre :
\n
\nHostin: \u00ab\u00a0Qu’auriez vous fait de diff\u00e9rent par rapport \u00e0 Biden dans les quatre derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es ?<\/em>
\nHarris: \u00ab\u00a0Il n’y a rien qui me vienne \u00e0 l’esprit…\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

3\/ La bonne nouvelle est que les r\u00e9sultats sont tranch\u00e9s. Des r\u00e9sultats flous dans le contexte actuel auraient ouvert la porte \u00e0 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements plus inqui\u00e9tants.<\/p>\n

\n

4\/ Sur les march\u00e9s, je suis d’accord avec la plupart des commentaires sauf sur les taux longs US. Comme tout promoteur immobilier, Trump s’endort chaque nuit en r\u00eavant de taux bas, et il se trouvera le patron de la FED qu’il lui faut pour cette mission l\u00e0, f\u00fbt-ce Chuck Norris. Je conserve donc notre position taux longs US – o\u00f9 on se fait secouer aujourd’hui.<\/p>\n

\n

\n

A part la pr\u00e9sidentielle US, plusieurs publications la semaine derni\u00e8re. La plus int\u00e9ressante est\u00a0Aurora<\/strong>, la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 de conduite autonome. L’action a perdu 22% apr\u00e8s ses r\u00e9sultats.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Attention, l’action Aurora appartient \u00e0 une caste particuli\u00e8re : 90% de volatilit\u00e9, malgr\u00e9 la baisse des derniers jours l’action est toujours au double de notre cours d’entr\u00e9e il y a 4 mois.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Et en termes de statistiques, il y a 10 soci\u00e9t\u00e9s sur tout le march\u00e9 am\u00e9ricain qui ont des capitalisations sup\u00e9rieures \u00e0 $5 Mds et un chiffre d’affaires inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 $100M. Aurora est l’une des 10 – 6 des autres sont des Biotech, la 7\u00e8me est le truc invalorisable de Trump.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

On est donc sur un animal particulier en termes d’action. Comment nous g\u00e9rons cela ? Nous avons investi en juin $2.7M pour acheter 1M d’actions.<\/p>\n

\n

Nous en avons revendu les \u00be en g\u00e9n\u00e9rant une plus-value de $3.2M. Donc m\u00eame si nos actions vont \u00e0 z\u00e9ro, nous terminerons l’ann\u00e9e avec un profit de $0.5M sur Aurora.<\/p>\n

\n

Est-ce que \u00e7a peut aller \u00e0 z\u00e9ro ? Eh bien, si le camion Aurora de 18 tonnes lanc\u00e9 \u00e0 130km\/h passe par dessus un bus scolaire, l’action vaudra certainement moins qu’aujourd’hui.<\/p>\n

\n

Ce qui nous ram\u00e8ne \u00e0 cette pr\u00e9sentation de r\u00e9sultats qui a d\u00e9\u00e7u le march\u00e9 car le lancement commercial est d\u00e9cal\u00e9 de quelques mois.<\/p>\n

\n

Voici trois histoires pass\u00e9es sur la conduite autonome:<\/p>\n

\n

– En mars 2018, une voiture autonome Uber a un accident mortel avec un pi\u00e9ton. Fin de la conduite autonome chez Uber – ce qui donnera lieu \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ation d’Aurora.<\/p>\n

\n

– En avril 2022, un camion de TuSimple, un pr\u00e9decesseur d’Aurora, fait soudainement un \u00ab\u00a0\u00e0 gauche\u00a0\u00bb en pleine ligne droite sur l’autoroute (vid\u00e9o\u00a0here<\/a>).\u00a0Fin de TuSimple.<\/p>\n

\n

– En octobre 2023, une voiture autonome de Cruise, la filiale de GM, percute un pi\u00e9ton projet\u00e9 sur sa route par un chauffard. La voiture Cruise s’arr\u00eate apr\u00e8s l’impact puis applique sa proc\u00e9dure de suret\u00e9 : red\u00e9marrage pour se garer sur un endroit s\u00fbr. Ce faisant elle ne voit pas que le pi\u00e9ton est immobilis\u00e9 sous son ch\u00e2ssis, et le tra\u00eene sur dix m\u00e8tres. L’ensemble de l’\u00e9quipe dirigeante de Cruise est vir\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

\n

A la lecture de ces incidents, on comprend la logique de Chris Urmson, le patron d’Aurora : il ne faut pas d’incident. Donc s’il lui faut quelques mois de plus pour atteindre cet objectif, aucun probl\u00e8me pour moi. L’impact en consommation de cash est minimal (on parle de $60M par mois ce qui ne p\u00e8se pas grand chose versus une valorisation de $9 Mds).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

David Giroux, le g\u00e9rant de T Rowe Price et un des premiers actionnaires d’Aurora (13%), donne ce pitch sur la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 – que j’ai d\u00e9couvert apr\u00e8s notre entr\u00e9e :<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\u00ab\u00a0Les clients demandent souvent : quel sera le prochain Nvidia ou Tesla ? Pour \u00e7a vous avez besoin de quatre choses :<\/p>\n

1\/ Commencez par une excellente \u00e9quipe de direction – Aurora l’a.<\/p>\n

2\/ Vous avez besoin d’un \u00e9norme march\u00e9 potentiel. Le transport routier autonome est un march\u00e9 de $1,000 Mds aux \u00c9tats-Unis et de $4,000 dans le monde.<\/p>\n

3\/ Vous avez \u00e9galement besoin d’un produit ou d’un service qui cr\u00e9e de la valeur pour les clients et les actionnaires. Le logiciel d’Aurora remplace le conducteur et permet d’\u00e9conomiser $0.45\u00a0par kilom\u00e8tre. Il est aussi manifestement plus s\u00fbr et plus respectueux de l’environnement.<\/p>\n

4\/ Enfin, vous devez \u00eatre un leader incontest\u00e9 sur le march\u00e9, avec des barri\u00e8res \u00e9lev\u00e9es \u00e0 l’entr\u00e9e. Aurora est le num\u00e9ro 1 sur son march\u00e9, et la plupart de ses concurrents se sont retir\u00e9s du march\u00e9 ou se sont recentr\u00e9s sur les robots-taxis pour voitures particuli\u00e8res.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Il reste deux sujets:<\/p>\n

1\/ La valeur a doubl\u00e9 depuis ce speech. A quel moment paye-t-on trop cher ?<\/p>\n

2\/ A ce stade c’est \u00e0 dire sans produit commercialis\u00e9, Aurora est-il un business ou une exp\u00e9rience ?<\/p>\n

\n

Sur ce dernier point, Philipp Koopman, professeur de technologie conduite autonome \u00e0 Carnegie Mellon, vient de sortir un livre:\u00a0\u00ab\u00a0How safe is safe enough?\u00a0\u00bb<\/em>\u00a0c’est-\u00e0-dire de combien l’ordinateur doit \u00eatre sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 l’homme pour que la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 accepte de les laisser rouler. Sur son indicateur interne, Aurora Readiness, on lit \u00ab\u00a097%\u00a0\u00bb. Proche du bout du tunnel quand m\u00eame.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Market and portfolio focus<\/strong><\/p>\n

Du 25 au 31 octobre, Monocle fait -0.9%, le CAC 40 -2.0% et le S&P 500 -1.8%.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Galapagos a publi\u00e9 pendant la semaine. On s\u2019attendait potentiellement \u00e0 des annonces sur le capital apr\u00e8s la nomination d\u2019Oleg Nodelman au board, mais rien de nouveau n\u2019a \u00e9t\u00e9 dit. Le march\u00e9 devait s\u2019attendre \u00e0 la m\u00eame chose et a un peu sanctionn\u00e9 le titre. Il nous co\u00fbte 40bps sur la semaine.<\/p>\n

\n

Aurora et Capri \u00e9taient aussi du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des d\u00e9tracteurs cette semaine. On vous a parl\u00e9 de la premi\u00e8re dans le Billet. Quant \u00e0 la second, la pression \u00e0 la vente a continu\u00e9 pendant toute la semaine derni\u00e8re post blocage du rachat (cf notre\u00a0last week's Billet<\/a>). Elle s\u2019est bien calm\u00e9e depuis et le cours remonte gentiment vers notre niveau d\u2019achat. On conserve un exposition nette actions \u00e0 23%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Justement, il n’est pas facile de vous sortir un truc int\u00e9ressant un lendemain d’\u00e9lections o\u00f9 tous les experts en politique am\u00e9ricaine vont sortir autant de papiers. Je risque…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4929,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - "Election Night"<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - "Election Night"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Justement, il n’est pas facile de vous sortir un truc int\u00e9ressant un lendemain d’\u00e9lections o\u00f9 tous les experts en politique am\u00e9ricaine vont sortir autant de papiers. 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