Et que je vous demande, parmi ces stockpickers, de me sortir l’intrus, vous allez faire comme moi jusqu’\u00e0 il y a une semaine et dire: \u00ab\u00a0Soros n’a rien \u00e0 faire dans cette s\u00e9lection. Soros c’est l’\u00e9conomie, c’est-\u00e0-dire les devises, les taux, les grands march\u00e9s…bref, la macro.\u00a0\u00bb<\/span><\/p>\n\n
C’est ce que je pensais jusqu’\u00e0 la semaine derni\u00e8re o\u00f9 j’ai \u00e9cout\u00e9 une interview de Scott Bessent qui a longtemps travaill\u00e9 avec Soros puis avec Stanley Druckenmiller – avant de devenir r\u00e9cemment c\u00e9l\u00e8bre pour \u00eatre pressenti par Trump pour \u00eatre Secr\u00e9taire au Tr\u00e9sor.<\/p>\n
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Le journaliste lui demandait justement sa vision pour l’\u00e9conomie parce que disait-il, \u00ab\u00a0il venait de chez Soros et Soros c’est la macro.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n
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![\"\"](\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Capture-decran-2024-11-13-160358.png\")
<\/p>\n
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\u00ab\u00a0Incorrect\u00a0\u00bb a r\u00e9pondu Bessent. \u00ab\u00a0George \u00e9tait un stock picker au d\u00e9but de sa carri\u00e8re. Et c’est justement une bonne mani\u00e8re de construire sa vue macro gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l’analyse de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s individuelles. Vous pouvez avoir un indicateur \u00e9conomique qui vous donne telle ou telle information, mais si le patron d’une grosse soci\u00e9t\u00e9 du secteur vous donne une vue diff\u00e9rente, c’est un signal important \u00e0 int\u00e9grer dans son raisonnement.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n
\n
J’\u00e9tais content d’entendre cette approche car j’ai toujours senti que g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement l’\u00e9chafaudage qui constituait ma vision macro \u00e9tait plus solide lorsqu’il \u00e9tait construit \u00e0 partir de briques individuelles.<\/p>\n
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Donc pour vous donner une vision pour les mois \u00e0 venir, voil\u00e0 le d\u00e9tail sur quelques briques :<\/p>\n
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Nous sommes rentr\u00e9s sur Duolingo, l’app d’apprentissage des langues, au mois de juin \u00e0 $200. C’\u00e9tait bien valoris\u00e9 \u00e0 l’\u00e9poque mais son fondateur, Luis Von Ahn, est un type hors-normes et le business model est beau. Cinq mois plus tard, l’action est maintenant \u00e0 $320 soit +60% en quelques mois. Notre mod\u00e8le de valorisation justifiait de garder la position si la croissance restait au-dessus de 50%. Ce fut le cas jusqu’aux r\u00e9sultats de la semaine derni\u00e8re o\u00f9 elle est pass\u00e9e \u00e0 +48%. Aujourd’hui, Duolingo se paye 20 fois les ventes. C’est un niveau de valorisation o\u00f9 il vaut mieux retirer quelques jetons de la table. Nous avons r\u00e9duit la ligne des 2\/3 vendredi dernier \u00e0 1% du fonds.<\/p>\n
\n
Deuxi\u00e8me exemple : nous \u00e9tions rentr\u00e9s en mai sur Affirm \u00e0 $31. C’est un business plus compliqu\u00e9 – cr\u00e9dit\/fintech -, l\u00e0 aussi avec un fondateur hors normes, Max Levchin, cofondateur de Paypal. Nous \u00e9tions sortis fin septembre \u00e0 $43 (+39% en 4 mois) car l\u00e0 aussi la valorisation paraissait difficile \u00e0 tenir. Affirm a publi\u00e9 des r\u00e9sultats d\u00e9cevants vendredi dernier – l’action a fait -9% – puis il y a eu une \u00ab\u00a0frenzy\u00a0\u00bb hier sur des volumes d’options \u00e9lev\u00e9s et l’action a pris +24%.<\/p>\n
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Troisi\u00e8me exemple : nous \u00e9tions rentr\u00e9s sur Ouster, la petite soci\u00e9t\u00e9 (capitalisation boursi\u00e8re : $550M) qui fait des Lidar, autour de $7.1. L’action avait connu un premier \u00e9pisode de bulle en juillet, en montant \u00e0 $17 avant de redescendre \u00e0 $7. Sur la journ\u00e9e d’hier, sans annonce et sans nouvelle, l’action a pris +32% pour monter \u00e0 $10.5.<\/p>\n
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Maintenant couplons ces exemples avec la vue d’un vrai \u00ab\u00a0Macro Guy\u00a0\u00bb, Jurrien Timmer, Head of Macro Research chez Fidelity :<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/thumbnail_image.png\")
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
C’est d’autant plus int\u00e9ressant que Timmer est plut\u00f4t constructif g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement. Comme dirait David Tepper, le g\u00e9rant du fonds Appaloosa: \u00ab\u00a0Good time to take some chips off the table.\u00a0\u00bb<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
Market and portfolio focus<\/strong><\/p>\nDu 31 octobre au 8 novembre, Monocle fait +0.3%, le CAC 40 1.0% et le S&P 500 5.2%.<\/span><\/p>\n\n
Malgr\u00e9 le ralentissement de sa croissance (cf Billet ci-dessus), Duolingo a bien rebondi cette semaine, +10%. La ligne nous rapporte 30bps. Nous l\u2019avons r\u00e9duite \u00e0 1% du portefeuille vendredi.<\/p>\n
\n
La publication de Richemont a fait tanguer tout le secteur du luxe. Kering n\u2019y a pas \u00e9chapp\u00e9, ce qui nous co\u00fbte 20bps. On garde environ 5% sur la ligne. Notre exposition nette action est \u00e0 21% dor\u00e9navant.<\/p>\n
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Enfin c\u00f4t\u00e9 taux, \u00e7a a pas mal boug\u00e9. On est mont\u00e9 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 4.65% \u00e0 la suite de l\u2019\u00e9lection US, avant de redescendre vers les 4.5%. On gagne 30bps sur cette ligne qui repr\u00e9sente toujours 26% du fonds.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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<\/p>\n