{"id":4973,"date":"2024-12-12T10:33:20","date_gmt":"2024-12-12T09:33:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4973"},"modified":"2024-12-12T10:33:20","modified_gmt":"2024-12-12T09:33:20","slug":"simple","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2024\/12\/12\/simple\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Simple\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Il y a onze ans je tombe sur Novagold. Le pitch est simple. La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9tient la moiti\u00e9 de Donlin Gold, l\u2019un des premiers gisements d\u2019or au monde, situ\u00e9 en Alaska \u2013 l\u2019autre moiti\u00e9 \u00e9tant d\u00e9tenue par Barrick. Le CEO est Greg Lang, qui est le sosie de Tommy Lee Jones. Il a \u00e9t\u00e9 patron de Barrick North America pendant des ann\u00e9es. Le chairman est Thomas Kaplan, milliardaire ayant fait sa fortune dans les m\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

En premiers investisseurs on retrouve John Paulson, le g\u00e9rant de hedge fund qui a gagn\u00e9 $4 Milliards dans la crise de 2008 et Seth Klarman, le l\u00e9gendaire g\u00e9rant du fonds Baupost. Je n\u2019ai plus les chiffres exacts mais l\u2019action vaut autour de $3.50 et la capitalisation tourne autour de $1.2 Mds. L\u2019or vaut alors $1,300.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Et on trouve ce graphique.
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00c7a c\u2019est la valeur du projet pour 100% de Donlin Gold, donc on divise par 2 pour la partie revenant \u00e0 Novagold (l\u2019autre moiti\u00e9 est d\u00e9tenue par Barrick). Il faut regarder les barres [moutarde] avec un taux de discount \u00e0 5%. Une valeur d\u2019environ $5.0 Mds avec un cours de l\u2019or \u00e0 $1,700, soit $2.5 Mds pour Novagold, ce qui devait faire \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s deux fois la capitalisation boursi\u00e8re de l\u2019\u00e9poque.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Mais, comme le nom l\u2019indique, c\u2019est un projet. Il faut obtenir les permis, finir les \u00e9tudes etc\u2026 Ce sera long.<\/p>\n

\n

On fait un aller-retour sympathique sur une petite taille autour de ces niveaux et nous vendons, car ce sera peut-\u00eatre plus long ce projet.<\/p>\n

\n

Mais je ne pensais pas que ce serait si long.<\/p>\n

\n

Onze ans plus tard, l\u2019or a doubl\u00e9 \u00e0 $2,700 \u2013 ou plut\u00f4t le dollar a perdu la moiti\u00e9 de sa valeur par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019or.<\/p>\n

\n

Novagold a mis beaucoup plus de temps que pr\u00e9vu \u00e0 obtenir son permis f\u00e9d\u00e9ral mais c\u2019est fait depuis 2018. Il lui manque deux autres permis que doit lui donner l\u2019Etat d\u2019Alaska d\u2019ici fin 2026. Apr\u00e8s le projet d\u00e9marre.<\/p>\n

\n

Que vaut l\u2019action\u00a0? $3.50. Retour \u00e0 la case d\u00e9part. Performance z\u00e9ro sur onze ann\u00e9es. Pourtant Thomas Kaplan est toujours l\u00e0 et n\u2019a rien vendu. Greg Lang dirige toujours les op\u00e9rations. John Paulson n\u2019a pas vendu et en a m\u00eame rajout\u00e9 cette ann\u00e9e. Le fonds Exor de la famille Agnelli a \u00e9galement construit une position importante.<\/p>\n

\n

Et dans la derni\u00e8re pr\u00e9sentation, le graphique est toujours l\u00e0 lui aussi.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A hier soir l\u2019action Novagold cote $3.51 soit une capitalisation de $1.2 Mds. Avec l\u2019or \u00e0 $2500, le projet vaut $11.2 Mds soit la partie Novagold $5.6 Mds. C\u2019est presque 5 fois la capitalisation actuelle. Et on est au bout du cycle de permis, avec une administration pro-d\u00e9veloppement qui arrive.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Novagold a plus de $100m de cash au bilan, de quoi couvrir les $30m de co\u00fbts annuels jusqu\u2019au lancement de la construction. Son co\u00fbt est estim\u00e9 \u00e0 $7.4 Mds. Pas un probl\u00e8me quand on a Barrick en partenaire et 39m onces d\u2019or en r\u00e9serves (\u00e0 2600$ l\u2019once, \u00e7a fait $100Mds de valeur).<\/p>\n

\n

Donc on a maintenant un bon timing et un bon cours d\u2019entr\u00e9e sur le stock. Reste le cours de l\u2019or. Il est beaucoup mont\u00e9 depuis un an (+40%) mais il n\u2019a fait que rattraper son retard sur la cr\u00e9ation de monnaie du COVID. Le programme de Trump \u2013 comme l\u2019\u00e9tait celui de Harris \u2013 continue sur des d\u00e9ficits \u00e9lev\u00e9s donc de la cr\u00e9ation de monnaie. Enfin les tensions g\u00e9opolitiques s\u2019accentuent ce qui milite pour un or plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 \u2013 [le lendemain de l\u2019invasion de l\u2019Ukraine, Poutine a r\u00e9alis\u00e9 que ses r\u00e9serves en dollars n\u2019\u00e9taient en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 pas vraiment \u00e0 lui].<\/p>\n

\n

Donc je pense qu\u2019il faut regarder \u00e0 nouveau ce graphique mais plut\u00f4t \u00e0 droite. On a mis 1% du fonds dans Novagold. On laisse dans un coin et on en reparle dans quelques ann\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Focus march\u00e9s et portefeuille<\/strong><\/p>\n

Du 29 novembre au 6 d\u00e9cembre, Monocle gagne 1.1% contre +2.6% pour le CAC 40 et 1.0% pour le S&P 500.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Pas mal de valeurs US ont bien rebondi en fin de semaine derni\u00e8re. C\u2019est le cas d\u2019Aurora qui a pris 20% et de Ginkgo qui a pris plus de 30%. \u00c7a tombe bien parce qu\u2019apr\u00e8s avoir r\u00e9dig\u00e9 le Billet la semaine derni\u00e8re\u00a0(\u00ab L\u2019Arbre aux Quarante Ecus \u00bb<\/a>), on a remis une louche sur Ginkgo pour en avoir 1%. R\u00e9sultat, ces deux lignes nous rapportent une trentaine de bps chacune.<\/p>\n

\n

Le luxe a \u00e9galement bien rebondi suite aux nouvelles en provenance de Chine. Kering nous ram\u00e8ne 30bps et LVMH une vingtaine.<\/p>\n

On n\u2019a pas seulement renforc\u00e9 Ginkgo pendant la semaine, on a aussi chang\u00e9 d\u2019autres positions.<\/p>\n

\n

Peu de temps apr\u00e8s notre entr\u00e9e, un think-tank am\u00e9ricain a sorti un rapport sur l\u2019industrie du Lidar. Sa conclusion\u00a0? Le secteur est bien trop critique pour ne pas avoir d\u2019acteurs Occidentaux tr\u00e8s puissants. Du coup exit Hesai et on renforce Ouster et Luminar pour en avoir 2.0% et 0.4% respectivement.<\/p>\n

\n

On a renforc\u00e9 deux autres lignes \u00e9galement. Match, le leader mondial des applis de rencontre qui b\u00e9n\u00e9ficierait d\u2019une cure d\u2019amaigrissement \u00e0 la Twitter version Musk. Avec deux activistes au capital (Elliott et Starboard), \u00e7a devrait bouger.<\/p>\n

\n

L\u2019autre c\u2019est Moderna. Bancel est un bon, et il a compris le \u00ab\u00a0truc\u00a0\u00bb des biotechs\u00a0: rien ne sert de dormir sur son cash, il faut l\u2019investir. Il a encore 8% du capital et a arr\u00eat\u00e9 de vendre des titres \u00e0 120$. On arrive 2\/3 plus bas, le point d\u2019entr\u00e9e est pas mal.<\/p>\n

\n

On termine avec une exposition nette action au-dessus de 41%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bonne semaine,<\/p>\n

Charles<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Il y a onze ans je tombe sur Novagold. Le pitch est simple. La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9tient la moiti\u00e9 de Donlin Gold, l\u2019un des premiers gisements d\u2019or au monde,…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4974,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - "Simple"<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - "Simple"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Il y a onze ans je tombe sur Novagold. Le pitch est simple. 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