{"id":4979,"date":"2024-12-18T15:26:43","date_gmt":"2024-12-18T14:26:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=4979"},"modified":"2024-12-18T15:26:43","modified_gmt":"2024-12-18T14:26:43","slug":"ex-darling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2024\/12\/18\/ex-darling\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Ex Darling\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

A l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 2021 on regardait l\u2019action Moderna, un des deux players sur le vaccin COVID, qui \u00e9tait au-dessus de $400. Cela correspondait \u00e0 une valorisation de $160 milliards, pour une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 qui, certes affichait des profits records gr\u00e2ce au vaccin COVID \u2013 on finirait l\u2019ann\u00e9e \u00e0 $12.2Mds de r\u00e9sultat net \u2013 mais il \u00e9tait raisonnable de penser que \u00e7a n\u2019allait pas durer. Il y a une expression en anglais qui est \u00abI would rather not touch it with a ten foot pole \u00bb qu\u2019on pourrait traduire en fran\u00e7ais par \u00ab \u00e0 ne pas toucher, m\u00eame avec la perche de Renaud Lavillenie* \u00bb.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Ceux qui \u00e9taient d\u2019un autre avis \u2013 peut \u00eatre emmen\u00e9s par l\u2019analyste de Barclays qui visait un audacieux $463 comme objectif – ont souffert car apr\u00e8s ce fut la piste de bobsleigh.<\/p>\n

\n

Maintenant il arrive un niveau o\u00f9 \u00e7a devient aussi idiot que tout en haut, mais dans l\u2019autre sens. En sommes-nous l\u00e0 aujourd\u2019hui\u00a0?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

L\u2019action Moderna vaut $41.8, soit une capitalisation boursi\u00e8re de $16.1Mds. L\u00e0-dedans on retire les $9.1Mds de cash pr\u00e9sents au bilan. Il nous reste donc une valeur d\u2019entreprise de $7.0. Donc vous achetez pour sept milliards d\u2019une part la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 qui est un des acteurs du march\u00e9 du vaccin COVID et d\u2019autre part le pipeline. Un chiffre sur ce pipeline\u00a0: le budget de recherche cumul\u00e9 de Moderna sur cinq ans tourne autour de $15 Mds. \u00c7a commence \u00e0 sentir bon.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Cela dit, j\u2019ai d\u00e9j\u00e0 p\u00e9ch\u00e9 par exc\u00e8s de confiance sur des dossiers similaires \u2013 pas besoin de regarder plus loin que Galapagos dans le portefeuille. Une diff\u00e9rence ici : le patron de Moderna c\u2019est St\u00e9phane Bancel. Il est \u00e0 Paul Stoffels, le patron de Galapagos, ce que Mick Jagger est \u00e0 Dick Rivers. Donc il communique \u00e0 tour de bras. Cela s\u2019explique d\u2019une part par le fait que Moderna est une bo\u00eete am\u00e9ricaine et aux US, si vous voulez attirer des talents, il faut que votre cours de bourse monte. C\u2019est nettement moins vrai en Europe.<\/p>\n

\n

D\u2019autre part Bancel n\u2019est pas m\u00e9decin. Sa formation c\u2019est Centrale\/Harvard, il comprend donc bien le jeu auquel il joue. D\u2019ailleurs au board de Moderna on trouve David Rubinstein, le co-fondateur de Carlyle, pas vraiment connu pour \u00eatre un enfant de c\u0153ur.<\/p>\n

\n

Que faisait St\u00e9phane Bancel quand son cours de bourse \u00e9tait \u00e0 $400 ? Il vendait \u00e0 tour de bras des actions Moderna. J\u2019ai fait un calcul de coin de table, mais il a vendu pour environ un milliard de dollars d\u2019actions. Il a donc mis un peu de c\u00f4t\u00e9 comme dirait l\u2019autre. Mais depuis que le cours est pass\u00e9 sous les $120, en juin 2023, il ne vend plus. Et il lui reste 8% du capital donc c\u2019est significatif.<\/p>\n

\n

Je savais que St\u00e9phane Bancel, le patron de Moderna, n\u2019\u00e9tait pas m\u00e9decin. Mais quand je l\u2019ai\u00a0entendu expliquer<\/a>\u00a0en 75 secondes que le taux de mortalit\u00e9 avant 5 ans \u00e9tant de 50% il y a deux cents ans je me suis dit que la machine tournait quand m\u00eame assez vite chez lui.<\/p>\n

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O\u00f9 est-ce que tout \u00e7a nous m\u00e8ne du coup ? On a un groupe avec une technologie de pointe, des milliards de cash d\u00e9j\u00e0 investis, des milliards de cash encore \u00e0 investir, un pipeline de produits bien fourni (10 validations attendues dans les 3 prochaines ann\u00e9es) et un CEO qui a bien compris que son r\u00f4le n\u2019\u00e9tait pas de tra\u00eener dans un laboratoire en blouse blanche \u2013 surtout quand on a plus de la moiti\u00e9 de son patrimoine en actions.<\/p>\n

\n

Le titre a perdu 60% cette ann\u00e9e, on est bien loin de la darling de 2021. A 42$ par action, on est au plus bas depuis d\u00e9but 2020. On en a mis 4% dans Monocle.<\/p>\n

\n

La tr\u00eave des confiseurs arrive \u00e0 grands pas et avec elle une pause dans l\u2019envoi du Billet. Je vous donne rendez-vous d\u00e9but janvier pour refaire le plein d\u2019histoires.<\/p>\n

\n

Passez de tr\u00e8s bonnes f\u00eates de fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e,<\/p>\n

\n

Charles<\/p>\n

\n

\n

 <\/p>\n

* Renaud Lavillenie, champion olympique \u00e0 la perche en 2012 avec 6m16. Ceux qui me connaissent ricanent en lisant cela car ils savent que je ne connais \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s rien en sport et ils ont raison, j\u2019en \u00e9tais rest\u00e9 \u00e0 Serguei Bubka (6m14 en 1994). Mais comme pour le reste du Billet, j\u2019ai creus\u00e9 le sujet !<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Market and portfolio focus<\/strong><\/p>\n

Du 6 au 13 d\u00e9cembre, Monocle perd 1.96% contre -0.2% pour le CAC 40 et -0.6% pour le S&P 500.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Les lignes qui nous avaient port\u00e9s la semaine derni\u00e8re nous ont tir\u00e9s vers le bas cette fois. Aurora et Ginkgo ont rendu une partie de leurs gains pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents et nous co\u00fbtent une vingtaine de bps chacune cette fois. Ouster et Moderna ont \u00e9t\u00e9 dans une situation similaire et nous co\u00fbtent respectivement 30 et 25bps.<\/p>\n

\n

Le plus gros d\u00e9tracteur reste notre ligne de taux long US. On est revenu vers les 4.6% sur le 30 ans US \u2013 le niveau de fin novembre \u2013 apr\u00e8s avoir chut\u00e9 \u00e0 4.3% il y a une dizaine de jours. Impact de 50bps pour nous. On en garde 13%.<\/p>\n

\n

C\u00f4t\u00e9 mouvement, on a r\u00e9duit notre exposition sur Kering de moiti\u00e9 (\u00e0 2.5%) cette semaine. Les nouvelles en provenance de Chine ne sont pas extra, avec une hausse de l\u2019\u00e9pargne et une baisse de la consommation. On a \u00e9galement eu des \u00e9chos n\u00e9gatifs sur la qualit\u00e9 de certains produits chez YSL, pas vraiment annonciateur d\u2019une collection qui se vend bien\u2026<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Have a good week,<\/p>\n

Charles<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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