{"id":5009,"date":"2025-01-22T18:14:34","date_gmt":"2025-01-22T17:14:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5009"},"modified":"2025-01-22T18:14:34","modified_gmt":"2025-01-22T17:14:34","slug":"its-a-match","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/01\/22\/its-a-match\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0It’s a Match !\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Il y a cent ans il y avait le Chasseur Fran\u00e7ais et ses annonces :<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Aujourd\u2019hui utiliser une appli c\u2019est le passage oblig\u00e9 pour rencontrer quelqu\u2019un. 60%, c\u2019est le pourcentage de couples qui se sont rencontr\u00e9s sur des applis de rencontre en 2024 aux US. C\u2019\u00e9tait 25% en 2010, et 10% en 2000.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Si on regarde les stats sur les premiers rendez-vous, le constat est le m\u00eame\u00a0: dans 40% des cas le premier contact a eu lieu sur une appli. C\u2019\u00e9tait 30% en 2019.<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n


\nLe poids lourd du secteur, c\u2019est Match Group. Son arme principale\u00a0? Tinder. L\u2019id\u00e9e est simple\u00a0: vous vous inscrivez, vous cr\u00e9ez votre profil avec vos photos, et l\u2019algorithme vous jette dans l\u2019oc\u00e9an des c\u0153urs \u00e0 prendre. Et l\u00e0 c\u2019est parti, en fonction de vos pr\u00e9f\u00e9rences et de vos choix, l\u2019appli vous propose des profils correspondant que vous pouvez \u00ab\u00a0liker\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n

<\/span>Le num\u00e9ro deux, c\u2019est Bumble. L\u2019histoire est la suivante : en 2014 Whitney Wolfe Herd, qui avait cofond\u00e9 Tinder, quitte le navire. Motif : parti d\u2019une hypoth\u00e8se romantique, Tinder est devenu le supermarch\u00e9. Whitney trouve des fonds et lance Bumble o\u00f9 le pouvoir est donn\u00e9 aux femmes : elles seules ont la possibilit\u00e9 de lancer une conversation, de quoi \u00e9viter bien des d\u00e9sagr\u00e9ments.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n


\nFin 2021, les deux pesaient 50Mds$ en bourse, dont pr\u00e8s de 10Mds$ pour Bumble qui venait juste de faire son IPO. Bon en 2021, le seul endroit pour faire avancer votre vie sentimentale c\u2019\u00e9tait votre canap\u00e9 donc \u00e9videmment c\u2019\u00e9tait bon pour le business. Aujourd\u2019hui, c\u2019est la gueule de bois. Match p\u00e8se 8.5Mds$ et Bumble 1.2Md$.<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

Sur la p\u00e9riode, voil\u00e0 comment leurs chiffres ont \u00e9volu\u00e9\u00a0:<\/p>\n

Match\u00a0:<\/p>\n

2021 : 16.2m d’utilisateurs payant en moyenne 194$ par an (ARPU), soit un chiffre d\u2019affaires (CA) de 3.1Mds$<\/p>\n

2024 : 15.2m d’utilisateurs payant en moyenne 231$ par an, soit CA 3.5Mds$<\/p>\n

Bumble\u00a0:<\/p>\n

2021 : 3.0m d’utilisateurs payant en moyenne 272$ par an, soit CA 0.8Md$<\/p>\n

2024 : 4.3m d’utilisateurs payant en moyenne 254$ par an, soit CA 1.1Md$<\/p>\n

\n

En 2021, on \u00ab\u00a0payait\u00a0\u00bb un utilisateur de Match 12x son ARPU. C\u2019\u00e9tait 8x pour Bumble. Aujourd\u2019hui, on est \u00e0 moins de 3x pour Match et moins de 1x pour Bumble. En PE forward, on les ach\u00e8te entre 8-10x. Les temps ont chang\u00e9. Pour le march\u00e9 ces actions sont des stars d\u00e9chues de la p\u00e9riode COVID, et leur business n\u2019a pas d’avenir.<\/p>\n

\n

Pourtant comme les graphiques ci-dessus le montre, la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 a \u00e9volu\u00e9. Et comme le disait le l\u00e9gendaire investisseur Michael Milken, \u201cthe best investor is a social scientist.\u201d Et si les gens ont d\u00e9sormais besoin des app de rencontres, ce sera Match et Bumble. Pourquoi ? Parce que l\u2019effet r\u00e9seau fait que seules les principales applis subsistent\u00a0: vous allez vous inscrire sur la ou les applis o\u00f9 vous avez le plus de chances d\u2019atteindre vos objectifs, donc celles qui ont le plus d\u2019utilisateurs.<\/p>\n

\n

Ici les dossiers se s\u00e9parent : Match est le plus gros mais a un peu perdu son \u00e2me. Le nouveau boss est Bernard Kim qui vient du gaming o\u00f9 il dirigeait Zynga. Pour situer le bonhomme : dans un portrait de lui on raconte que Kim avait d\u00e9pens\u00e9 $50,000 pour acheter des options sur un jeu vid\u00e9o… Le probl\u00e8me est que les gens qui veulent se rencontrer ne fonctionnent pas comme des accros aux manettes de jeu. Donc le plan de Kim ne marche pas et la journ\u00e9e investisseurs de d\u00e9cembre dernier \u2013 cens\u00e9e expliciter la future strat\u00e9gie \u2013 n\u2019a pas convaincu.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Alors pourquoi sommes nous l\u00e0 ? Le fonds activiste Elliott est rentr\u00e9 il y a un an, suivi par le fonds Starboard en juillet (ce ne sont pas des tendres : Elliott avait fait saisir un bateau de la Marine argentine quand le gouvernement refusait de rembourser ses obligations). Ils ont annonc\u00e9 que les choses devaient bouger, sinon ils feraient sortir Match de la bourse. Le mandat de Kim au conseil d\u2019administration expire dans 4 mois. Et on sait que la structure de co\u00fbts peut \u00eatre revue substantiellement \u00e0 la baisse, comme Musk l\u2019a montr\u00e9 sur Twitter \u2013 je ne parle pas de ce qu\u2019est devenu Twitter mais du fait que le service a continu\u00e9 \u00e0 tourner malgr\u00e9 des frais g\u00e9n\u00e9raux divis\u00e9s par deux. Donc \u00e7a devrait bouger sur Match avant juin. Nous en avons 6% du fonds.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Chez Bumble, on a Blackstone qui d\u00e9tient 35% du capital et qui a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de remettre Wolfe aux manettes. Elle a d\u00e9montr\u00e9 son c\u00f4t\u00e9 \u00ab\u00a0social scientist\u00a0\u00bb \u00e0 plusieurs reprises, on pense qu\u2019elle va le refaire. D\u2019autant plus qu\u2019elle a toujours 15% de Bumble elle-m\u00eame donc c\u00f4t\u00e9 \u00ab\u00a0skin in the game\u00a0\u00bb on est pas mal. On en a mis 2% pour le moment et on se r\u00e9serve le droit d\u2019augmenter la position.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Il y a cent ans il y avait le Chasseur Fran\u00e7ais et ses annonces : Aujourd\u2019hui utiliser une appli c\u2019est le passage oblig\u00e9 pour rencontrer quelqu\u2019un. 60%, c\u2019est…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5010,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5009","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - "It's a Match !"<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - "It's a Match !"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Il y a cent ans il y avait le Chasseur Fran\u00e7ais et ses annonces : Aujourd\u2019hui utiliser une appli c\u2019est le passage oblig\u00e9 pour rencontrer quelqu\u2019un. 60%, c\u2019est...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/01\/22\/its-a-match\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Monocle\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-01-22T17:14:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Capture-decran-2025-01-22-180159.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1438\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"861\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/01\\\/22\\\/its-a-match\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/01\\\/22\\\/its-a-match\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f095305e6c0f0cb67a0905de33670595\"},\"headline\":\"\u00ab\u00a0It’s a Match !\u00a0\u00bb\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-01-22T17:14:34+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/01\\\/22\\\/its-a-match\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":826,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/01\\\/22\\\/its-a-match\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/01\\\/Capture-decran-2025-01-22-180159.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Les Billets de Monocle\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/01\\\/22\\\/its-a-match\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/01\\\/22\\\/its-a-match\\\/\",\"name\":\"Monocle - 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