{"id":5076,"date":"2025-02-13T17:23:16","date_gmt":"2025-02-13T16:23:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5076"},"modified":"2025-02-13T17:23:16","modified_gmt":"2025-02-13T16:23:16","slug":"le-temeraire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/02\/13\/le-temeraire\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab Le T\u00e9m\u00e9raire \u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00ab\u00a0Il gisait nu, face contre terre, au milieu d\u2019un \u00e9tang gel\u00e9. Du sommet au menton, sa t\u00eate avait \u00e9t\u00e9 fendue par une hallebarde suisse tandis que les piques des montagnards avaient trou\u00e9 son corps de part en part. Ce qui restait de son visage \u00e9tait m\u00e9connaissable. Un loup lui avait rong\u00e9 une joue.\u00a0\u00bb<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Ainsi finit Charles le T\u00e9m\u00e9raire, Duc de Bourgogne, il y a tout juste 548 ans.<\/p>\n

\n

D\u2019abord comment en \u00e9tait-il arriv\u00e9 l\u00e0 ? Apr\u00e8s s\u2019\u00eatre pris une racl\u00e9e par les Suisses quelques semaines avant, racl\u00e9e o\u00f9 la moiti\u00e9 de son arm\u00e9e de vingt mille hommes avait \u00e9t\u00e9 pass\u00e9e par le fil de l\u2019\u00e9p\u00e9e, il avait d\u00e9cid\u00e9, au lieu d\u2019adapter sa strat\u00e9gie aux forces dont il disposait apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9faite, de franchir \u00e0 nouveau la fronti\u00e8re pour aller montrer aux Suisses qui \u00e9tait le patron. Bien qu\u2019il n\u2019ait pu cette fois r\u00e9unir que trois mille hommes en petite forme, \u00e7a ne lui avait curieusement pas fait r\u00e9\u00e9valuer ses probabilit\u00e9s de succ\u00e8s. Le r\u00e9sultat fut cette triste fin pour un des princes les plus puissants d\u2019Europe.<\/p>\n

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Comme je m\u2019appelle Charles et que je suis n\u00e9 \u00e0 Dijon, vous comprendrez que \u00e7a me parle. Surtout quand je veux justement tenter un truc de t\u00e9m\u00e9raire\u2026<\/p>\n

\n

Depuis le d\u00e9but du mois je regarde le cours de Moderna baisser pour passer hier soir \u00e0 la cl\u00f4ture sous les $32. Pour retrouver ce niveau dans le pass\u00e9, il faut revenir \u00e0 avril 2020. Une \u00e9poque o\u00f9 on ne savait m\u00eame pas que Moderna sortirait un vaccin \u00e0 ARN messager sur le COVID six mois plus tard. Au niveau actuel, la valeur boursi\u00e8re de Moderna est de $12 Mds. Sur le bilan au 30 septembre je lis [cash + investissements + comptes clients] = $11 Mds. Dette ? Z\u00e9ro. Donc en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 le march\u00e9 valorise le business Moderna un milliard. Pour ce prix l\u00e0 j\u2019ai la franchise COVID (40% de parts de march\u00e9) et le pipeline de m\u00e9dicaments en d\u00e9veloppement. Une id\u00e9e de ce pipeline ? Sur deux ans, Moderna a mis $10 Mds dans sa R&D. Et puis je pense que St\u00e9phane Bancel, le fran\u00e7ais centralien patron de Moderna est un vrai bon.<\/p>\n

\n

Et pourquoi \u00e7a baisse\u00a0? Parce que Robert Kennedy, connu pour ses positions anti-vaccination, s\u2019approche du si\u00e8ge de ministre de la Sant\u00e9 du gouvernement Trump. Ce malgr\u00e9 une lettre sign\u00e9e par 77 [ soixante-dix-sept\u00a0!] prix Nobel expliquant que l\u2019arriv\u00e9e de Kennedy \u00e0 ce poste serait une catastrophe pour la Sant\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaine.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Robert F. Kennedy Jr<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Extrait de la lettre parue dans le New York Times le 9 d\u00e9cembre<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Donc je regarde tout cela, je regarde le cours et l\u2019envie me prend de doubler la position de Moderna (3% du fonds). J\u2019imagine alors le cours qui remonte, la performance qui s\u2019envole\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

N\u00e9anmoins deux coups de fil avant de passer \u00e0 l\u2019acte\u00a0:<\/p>\n

1\/ J\u2019appelle Guillaume* \u2013 la nouvelle organisation ne sera en place que dans six mois mais nous travaillons d\u00e9j\u00e0 ensemble. Je lui explique le topo, il me r\u00e9pond tr\u00e8s poliment que tout \u00e7a c\u2019est tr\u00e8s gentil mais que \u00ab sizing is sizing \u00bb, que sur nos 49% actuels d\u2019exposition maximum aux actions, les 3% repr\u00e9sentent d\u00e9j\u00e0 une position de 6% ce qui fait une belle position. \u00ab 1% max en plus ! \u00bb dit-il avant de raccrocher.<\/p>\n

\n

2\/ J\u2019appelle ensuite Nicolas** pour v\u00e9rifier qu\u2019\u00e9videmment, en agitant Kennedy, Trump ne fait que de la com\u2019 et qu\u2019in fine un type aussi controvers\u00e9 ne passera pas.<\/p>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00ab\u00a0Ah, non, erreur, il a en fait toutes les chances de passer\u00a0: il a pass\u00e9 le vote de la Commission des Finances du S\u00e9nat (la seule qui ait un pouvoir de d\u00e9cision) \u00e0 14\/13. Les 14 R\u00e9publicains ont vot\u00e9 pour lui et les 13 D\u00e9mocrates contre. Il a aussi pass\u00e9 l\u2019audition devant la Commission de la Sant\u00e9 (m\u00eame si elle n\u2019a pas de pouvoir de d\u00e9cision). Il ne manque que le vote du S\u00e9nat o\u00f9 les R\u00e9publicains ont une forte majorit\u00e9 (en termes US)\u00a0: 53 R\u00e9publicains vs 47 D\u00e9mocrates. Et en sus, en cas d\u2019\u00e9galit\u00e9 c\u2019est le Vice-Pr\u00e9sident qui tranche.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

\n

\n

Je raccroche, toujours convaincu que Moderna vaut nettement plus que son cours actuel mais je ne vais cependant pas suivre mon illustre a\u00efeul et repasser la fronti\u00e8re. Je garde ce que j\u2019ai et j\u2019attends.<\/p>\n

\n

\n

Passez une bonne semaine.<\/p>\n

\n

Charles\u00a0Le Couard\u00a0Le Raisonnable<\/p>\n

\n

\n

*Guillaume Dolisi, fondateur de VIA AM<\/p>\n

**Nicolas Mazzucchi, expert g\u00e9opolitique<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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