{"id":5089,"date":"2025-02-20T16:06:18","date_gmt":"2025-02-20T15:06:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5089"},"modified":"2025-02-20T16:06:18","modified_gmt":"2025-02-20T15:06:18","slug":"full-metal-aurora","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/02\/20\/full-metal-aurora\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab Full Metal Aurora \u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Je ne sais plus dans quel livre j’ai lu ce truc affreux sur cette torture inflig\u00e9e aux prisonniers am\u00e9ricains pendant la guerre du Vietnam : attach\u00e9 au-dessus d’un jeune bambou le malheureux se faisait d\u00e9chirer les entrailles par la plante qui poussait de 10cm par jour\u2026 L’action Aurora ces jours-ci ressemble \u00e0 un de ces bambous, mais qui en sus aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 arros\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019Algoflash.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Aurora a publi\u00e9 ses r\u00e9sultats mercredi soir apr\u00e8s cl\u00f4ture. Le lendemain, le titre prend 20% \u00e0 l\u2019ouverture. Puis 30%. Puis 40%. Il finit sous les +50%. Quand on voit \u00e7a, en tant qu\u2019actionnaires, la premi\u00e8re r\u00e9action, c\u2019est d\u2019\u00eatre content tout de m\u00eame. La seconde, c\u2019est de se demander si tout \u00e7a est bien justifi\u00e9. Parce qu\u2019une telle variation, c\u2019est pas anodin, et \u00e7a pose pas mal de questions.<\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/p>\n

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Du coup, jeudi on a taill\u00e9 nos crayons, pris les r\u00e9sultats et revu notre cas. A 10$, Aurora vaut 17bn$. Et 17bn$ c\u2019est pas une paille. C\u2019est autant que Dassault Aviation ou Bollor\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Alors, est-ce qu\u2019il y avait des choses exceptionnelles dans les r\u00e9sultats d\u2019Aurora\u00a0? Franchement, non. C\u2019est sans doute l\u2019absence de mauvaises qui a bien rassur\u00e9. Car Aurora marche quand m\u00eame sur des \u0153ufs. Dans la conduite autonome, tout peut s\u2019emballer d\u2019un coup, dans le meilleur et dans le pire (General Motors a ferm\u00e9 sa division Cruise apr\u00e8s un accident).<\/p>\n

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L\u00e0, Aurora a confirm\u00e9 son lancement commercial en avril. Pas des gros chiffres\u00a0: 1 camion autonome. Des dizaines d\u2019autres d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e qui vont parcourir leur premi\u00e8re ligne Dallas-Houston. De quoi faire 5m$ de chiffre d\u2019affaires cette ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/p>\n

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Quand on prend un crayon et un bout de papier pour voir ce que rapporte un camion, voil\u00e0 ce que \u00e7a donne\u00a0:<\/span><\/p>\n

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Le chauffeur de poids lourd moyen aux US fait 500-600 miles par jour (11h par jour maximum r\u00e9glementairement). Un camion Aurora pourra conduire plus longtemps, admettons 1000 miles par jour (18h \u00e0 la m\u00eame allure que le chauffeur humain), et plus de jours par an, admettons 350 (r\u00e9paration, maintenance…).<\/p>\n

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Aurora va vendre son service de conduite autonome \u00e0 0.75$ par mile. \u00c7a fait donc un chiffre d\u2019affaires de 260 000$ par an environ.<\/p>\n

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Aurora travaille d\u00e9j\u00e0 avec des grands noms du \u00ab\u00a0trucking\u00a0\u00bb aux US comme Fedex, JB Hunt ou Werner. Ce sont eux qui poss\u00e8deront les camions sur lesquels Aurora montera son syst\u00e8me, donc l\u2019investissement pour Aurora ne sera pas gigantesque.<\/p>\n

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Avec une marge op\u00e9rationnelle normative \u00e0 20%, \u00e7a fait 50 000$ de r\u00e9sultat op\u00e9rationnel par camion, 40 000$ apr\u00e8s imp\u00f4ts.<\/p>\n

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Si on veut faire du 10% par an minimum sur les 10 prochaines ann\u00e9es, on vise une capitalisation future de $44Mds. Admettons qu\u2019Aurora se paie 30x son r\u00e9sultat \u00e0 ce moment, \u00e7a implique un r\u00e9sultat net de $1.5Md.<\/p>\n

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Si on combine nos deux calculs pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents, \u00e7a veut dire qu\u2019Aurora devra avoir au moins 37 500 camions sur la route.<\/p>\n

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Deux \u00e9l\u00e9ments \u00e0 avoir en t\u00eate l\u00e0. Le premier, c\u2019est qu\u2019il y a 2 millions de chauffeurs de poids lourds aux US. Le second, c\u2019est que le march\u00e9 d\u2019Aurora aux US repr\u00e9sente 50 milliards de miles parcourus.<\/p>\n

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Avec 37 500 camions roulant 1000 miles par jour 350 jours par an, \u00e7a fait un total de 13 milliards de miles. Un quart du march\u00e9 rien que pour Aurora. Enorme.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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Certes il y a des mais\u2026 Mais s\u2019ils r\u00e9ussissent aux US ils vont se lancer ailleurs\u00a0? Mais s\u2019ils r\u00e9ussissent sur les camions, ils vont faire \u00e7a sur d\u2019autres v\u00e9hicules\u00a0? Mais s\u2019ils sont si bons tout le monde va vouloir les utiliser\u00a0? Etc.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Tout \u00e7a c\u2019est vrai. La question c\u2019est\u00a0: avec quelle probabilit\u00e9\u00a0? Avec quelle probabilit\u00e9 Aurora peut choper un quart de son march\u00e9\u00a0? Avec quelle probabilit\u00e9 ils auront presque 40 000 camions\u00a0? Avec quelle probabilit\u00e9 il n\u2019y a pas de concurrence\u00a0?<\/p>\n

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A toutes ces questions, on r\u00e9pond que la probabilit\u00e9 est assez faible. Alors on a sorti le s\u00e9cateur pour couper Aurora, histoire de pas se retrouver comme les prisonniers US et leur bambou\u2026 On en garde 1%.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Je ne sais plus dans quel livre j’ai lu ce truc affreux sur cette torture inflig\u00e9e aux prisonniers am\u00e9ricains pendant la guerre du Vietnam : attach\u00e9 au-dessus d’un…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5094,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5089","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - \u00ab Full Metal Aurora \u00bb<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - \u00ab Full Metal Aurora \u00bb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Je ne sais plus dans quel livre j’ai lu ce truc affreux sur cette torture inflig\u00e9e aux prisonniers am\u00e9ricains pendant la guerre du Vietnam : attach\u00e9 au-dessus d’un...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/02\/20\/full-metal-aurora\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Monocle\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-02-20T15:06:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Capture-decran-2025-02-18-181606.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"792\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"441\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/20\\\/full-metal-aurora\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/20\\\/full-metal-aurora\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f095305e6c0f0cb67a0905de33670595\"},\"headline\":\"\u00ab Full Metal Aurora \u00bb\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-02-20T15:06:18+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/20\\\/full-metal-aurora\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":710,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/20\\\/full-metal-aurora\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/Capture-decran-2025-02-18-181606.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Les Billets de Monocle\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/20\\\/full-metal-aurora\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/02\\\/20\\\/full-metal-aurora\\\/\",\"name\":\"Monocle - 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