{"id":5144,"date":"2025-04-09T09:31:30","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T07:31:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5144"},"modified":"2025-04-09T09:31:40","modified_gmt":"2025-04-09T07:31:40","slug":"lidole-de-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/04\/09\/lidole-de-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0L’Idole de Trump\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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Ce soir Trump parlera sur\u00a0le<\/span>s droits de douane. Et en lisant\u00a0le<\/span>s commentaires inquiets d\u2019\u00e9conomistes r\u00e9put\u00e9s,\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0personnage qui me vient \u00e0 l\u2019esprit n\u2019est pourtant ni N\u00e9ron ni Machiavel. C\u2019est \u00e0 Dupontel que je pense. Parce que la caract\u00e9ristique premi\u00e8re de Trump, comme celle de Dupontel, c\u2019est d\u2019\u00eatre impr\u00e9visible.<\/p>\n

Exemple\u00a0:\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a023 octobre 2019, Trump, Pr\u00e9sident, d\u00e9clare lors d\u2019une visite \u00e0 Pittsburgh\u00a0:<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Nous construisions un mur, un mur magnifique dans\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0Colorado. Un mur tr\u00e8s haut qui fonctionne vraiment, vous ne pouvez pas passer par-dessus, vous ne pouvez pas passer par-dessous.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

Sauf que si vous regardez la carte des \u00e9tats am\u00e9ricains \u2013 pour ceux qui, comme moi, ont de mauvais souvenirs de\u00a0le<\/span>urs cours de g\u00e9ographie -vous\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0voyez\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0Colorado, pas loin du milieu, entour\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9tats… am\u00e9ricains ?<\/p>\n

La r\u00e9action \u00e0 la d\u00e9claration de Trump fut une nu\u00e9e de hurlements sur son niveau intellectuel. Mais quel fut\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0vrai r\u00e9sultat de ce speech ? L\u2019immigration \u2013 th\u00e8me favori de Trump \u2013 remise tout en haut de la pile des news et un buzz impossible \u00e0 atteindre par d\u2019autres moyens.<\/p>\n

J\u2019ai p\u00each\u00e9 cette anecdote dans \u00a0\u00ab\u00a0Le<\/span>s Ing\u00e9nieurs du Chaos \u00bb de Giuliano da Empoli (Latt\u00e8s, 2019). C\u2019est vraiment un bouquin qui ouvre\u00a0le<\/span>s yeux sur\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0fonctionnement du monde d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui*. L\u2019exemple\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0plus int\u00e9ressant est celui du mouvement Cinq Etoiles en Italie, sorti de nulle part pour devenir premier parti d\u2019Italie en 2018.\u00a0Le<\/span>\u00a0cerveau derri\u00e8re ce mouvement, ce n\u2019est pas Beppe Grillo, qui ne jouait qu\u2019un r\u00f4le<\/span>\u00a0de mascotte. C\u2019est Gianroberto Casaleggio (1954-2016), un geek, qui a compris plus vite que d\u2019autres l\u2019impact d\u2019internet sur la soci\u00e9t\u00e9. Il disait:<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0La politique ne m\u2019int\u00e9resse pas, ce qui m\u2019int\u00e9resse c\u2019est l\u2019opinion publique\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n

La technique consiste \u00e0 comprendre o\u00f9 est l\u2019opinion publique, puis \u00e0 surfer sur elle pour prendre\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0pouvoir. C\u2019est du populisme mais moderne. Retenez\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0titre : si vous cherchez\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0chaos, vous devez faire des d\u00e9clarations totalement d\u00e9cal\u00e9es par rapport au consensus. Mais ces d\u00e9clarations ne sont pas des positions de principe. Juste des moyens de parvenir \u00e0 ses fins. Et pour Trump l\u2019objectif final est clair : des deals. Une fois qu\u2019il\u00a0le<\/span>s aura, ses deals, il fera un 180 avec ses interlocuteurs et tapera dans\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0dos de ceux qu\u2019il conspuait quelques jours avant.<\/p>\n

Il y a un si\u00e8cle ; Th\u00e9odore Roosevelt, \u00e0 la m\u00eame place, d\u00e9finissait la strat\u00e9gie am\u00e9ricaine ainsi :<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Speak nicely and carry a big stick.\u00bb<\/p>\n

Trump a juste supprim\u00e9\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0\u00ab\u00a0nicely\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n

*Cela ne concerne pas que\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0domaine politique : rappelons que derri\u00e8re l\u2019\u00e9le<\/span>ction de Trump en 2016 celui qui g\u00e9rait ces syst\u00e8mes pour Trump \u00e9tait Robert Mercer, ancien patron du premier hedge fund du monde, Renaissance. Il est donc \u00e9vident que ces techniques de manipulation d\u2019opinion sont \u00e9galement pr\u00e9sentes dans\u00a0le<\/span>s march\u00e9s. On s\u2019\u00e9tonnera donc moins des \u00e9volutions de certains cours. Et c\u2019est une donn\u00e9e \u00e0 int\u00e9grer dans\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0sizing des positions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Market and portfolio focus<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Du 21 au 28 Mars, Monocle perd 2.9%,\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0CAC 40 -1.6% et\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0S&P 500 -1.5%.<\/p>\n

Notre poche actions, davantage volatile, a beaucoup plus souffert que\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0march\u00e9 cette semaine, sans aucune nouvelle fondamentale sur nos stocks.<\/p>\n

C\u00f4t\u00e9 mouvements, nous avons rajout\u00e9 3 % sur LVMH. Nous revenons sur ce poids lourd europ\u00e9en, dont la valorisation nous para\u00eet attractive.<\/p>\n

Par ailleurs, nous avons profit\u00e9 du repli r\u00e9cent de Moderna pour\u00a0<\/strong>augmenter notre exposition de 1 %.<\/strong>\u00a0La r\u00e9cente baisse li\u00e9e \u00e0 la d\u00e9mission du responsable vaccins de la FDA a cr\u00e9\u00e9 un point d\u2019achat int\u00e9ressant. La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 reste entre de bonnes mains avec St\u00e9phane Bancel, et au cours actuel, la capitalisation s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8ve \u00e0 10,5 milliards de dollars, pour une position de cash de 9,5 milliards de dollars \u00e0 fin d\u00e9cembre.<\/p>\n

Notre exposition actions nette est pass\u00e9e \u00e0 42%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ce soir Trump parlera sur\u00a0les droits de douane. Et en lisant\u00a0les commentaires inquiets d\u2019\u00e9conomistes r\u00e9put\u00e9s,\u00a0le\u00a0personnage qui me vient \u00e0 l\u2019esprit n\u2019est pourtant ni N\u00e9ron ni Machiavel. C\u2019est \u00e0…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5145,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5144","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - "L'Idole de Trump"<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - "L'Idole de Trump"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ce soir Trump parlera sur\u00a0les droits de douane. 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