{"id":5152,"date":"2025-04-14T09:40:29","date_gmt":"2025-04-14T07:40:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5152"},"modified":"2025-04-14T09:40:34","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T07:40:34","slug":"lesson-from-sully","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/04\/14\/lesson-from-sully\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Lesson from Sully\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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Lorsque le Capitaine Chesley \u00ab\u00a0Sully\u00a0\u00bb Sullenberger a r\u00e9ussi l\u2019exploit de poser son Airbus A320 sur l\u2019Hudson le 15 janvier 2009, le seul gars qui a failli y passer est un passager pris de panique qui a plong\u00e9 dans l\u2019eau glac\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Anecdote utile dans ces march\u00e9s turbulents.<\/p>\n

Ce billet sera court \u2013 je prendrai un peu de temps dans la 2e partie pour expliquer chaque ligne \u2013 et en un mot je reste sur la ligne d\u00e9crite dans\u00a0notre webinaire<\/a>\u00a0de ce lundi avec Nicolas.<\/p>\n

La volatilit\u00e9 actuelle sur les march\u00e9s n\u2019est pas le reflet de la r\u00e9v\u00e9lation d\u2019un probl\u00e8me syst\u00e9mique\u00a0comme en 2008 ou d\u2019un choc exog\u00e8ne comme le COVID mais le fruit de la d\u00e9cision d\u2019une personne, Trump.<\/p>\n

Celui-ci est populiste, pro-syst\u00e8me et pro-WallStreet.<\/p>\n

Ce n\u2019est pas un id\u00e9ologue, juste quelqu\u2019un qui veut de meilleurs deals pour les Etats-Unis. Et pour les obtenir, il utilise sa m\u00e9thode habituelle\u00a0:<\/p>\n

1\/Pression maximum \u2013 on est dedans.<\/p>\n

2\/Accord \u2013 et on se tape dans le dos.<\/p>\n

En attendant le stade 2, le mieux est de ne pas bouger.<\/p>\n

Dernier point sur les outils pour comprendre Trump : Giuliano Da Empoli dont je vous parlais dans le dernier billet disait dans un interview r\u00e9cent que pour comprendre comment fonctionnent les Trump, Musk, Milei, MBS, \u2026, il ne faut pas lire les contemporains mais remonter longtemps en arri\u00e8re, jusqu\u2019\u00e0 Su\u00e9tone et sa \u00ab Vie des Douze C\u00e9sars \u00bb.<\/p>\n

J\u2019ai lu hier le chapitre sur Jules C\u00e9sar. Je connaissais ses victoires militaires et ses coups politiques. Mais pas son populisme : d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9poque C\u00e9sar appuyait son pouvoir en donnant beaucoup, beaucoup, beaucoup au peuple romain. De l\u2019argent, des terres, du pain et des jeux. Il avait compris que pour que son pouvoir soit solide il fallait un peuple heureux.<\/p>\n

Je ne pense pas que l\u2019\u00e9lectorat de Trump reste longtemps heureux avec un SP500 sous les 5000 points \u2013 il a perdu pr\u00e8s de dix points dans les sondages en une semaine.<\/p>\n

Et je ne pense pas non plus que Trump envoie ce genre de tweet pour envoyer le SP500 plus bas.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Revue du fonds et des positions<\/strong><\/p>\n

A hier soir, la performance du fonds (part A) est \u00e0 -7.26% depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. La vue \u00e0 30.000 pieds, c\u2019est que cette performance refl\u00e8te un positionnement volontairement plus agressif que par le pass\u00e9 – notre exposition action nette est \u00e0 +44%, proche de notre maximum.<\/p>\n

Pour la vision \u00e0 300 pieds, voici un r\u00e9sum\u00e9 de trois lignes sur les trois premi\u00e8res positions du fonds :<\/p>\n

Capri (4.7%) vient d\u2019annoncer il y a deux heures la vente de Versace \u00e0 Prada pour $1.4 Mds. Donc Capri n\u2019a plus de dette et m\u00eame $250M de cash. Ils vont vendre dans la foul\u00e9e Jimmy Choo pour $0.6\/0.9 Mds pour se retrouver avec pas loin de $1.0 Mds de cash. Et il restera Michael Kors qui bien que d\u00e9cri\u00e9e, has been etc\u2026 a encore g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 $300M d\u2019EBIT sur 2024. Le march\u00e9 valorise l\u2019ensemble pour $1.8 Mds. Je ne suis pas vendeur.<\/p>\n

Bumble (3.7%) a g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 $200 M de free cash flow sur les douze derniers mois. La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 s\u2019en est servie pour rachet\u00e9 $190M de ses actions. Aujourd\u2019hui le march\u00e9 valorise Bumble $640M. Donc en trois ans \u00e0 ce rythme il n\u2019y aura plus d\u2019actions Bumble. Je ne suis pas vendeur.<\/p>\n

Galapagos (5.3%) a deux actifs : 1) une tr\u00e9sorerie de \u20ac3.0 Mds d\u2019euros et 2) une activit\u00e9 de biotech dirig\u00e9e par Paul Stoffels. Gilead d\u00e9tient 25% du capital. Le march\u00e9 valorise tout cela \u20ac1.4 Mds. Je ne suis pas vendeur.<\/p>\n

Buffett d\u00e9crivait le march\u00e9 comme votre voisin qui hurle tous les jours des prix diff\u00e9rents pour vous acheter votre champ. Aujourd\u2019hui le march\u00e9 est ce m\u00eame voisin, mais qui carburerait au LSD – Capri a fait -10% avant-hier, +31% hier et -10% aujourd\u2019hui. Peut \u00eatre des boules Quies pendant quelques jours\u2026.<\/p>\n

Bonne semaine, pardon pour ce billet qui arrive tard avec cette semaine charg\u00e9e \u2013 et pas de billet la semaine prochaine pour cause de vacances\u00a0!<\/p>\n

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