{"id":5165,"date":"2025-04-30T15:01:34","date_gmt":"2025-04-30T13:01:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5165"},"modified":"2025-04-30T15:01:41","modified_gmt":"2025-04-30T13:01:41","slug":"au-fond-du-canal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/04\/30\/au-fond-du-canal\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Au fond du canal\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Je me rappelle il y a bien longtemps, je devais avoir douze ans, d\u2019une initiation \u00e0 la p\u00eache aux \u00e9crevisses. Par un matin brumeux, sur\u00a0le<\/span>s bords d\u2019un canal, un vieux monsieur nous expliquait tout un tas de trucs, \u00e0 mes fr\u00e8res et moi, en glissant une \u00e0 une\u00a0le<\/span>s balances dans l\u2019eau, \u00e0 l\u2019aide d\u2019une longue perche. On ne peut pas dire que c\u2019\u00e9tait passionnant son speech sur la technicit\u00e9 de la p\u00eache \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9crevisse. Malgr\u00e9 tout, on avait pig\u00e9 qu\u2019\u00e0 un moment il allait relever\u00a0le<\/span>s balances et que l\u00e0, sans doute, \u00e7a deviendrait plus int\u00e9ressant. Une heure se passe puis l\u2019expert vient, solennellement, relever la premi\u00e8re balance. Tous nos regards se braquent sur la cordelette qui remonte doucement dans l\u2019eau jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce qu\u2019apparaisse.. rien. Au bout d\u2019une heure dans l\u2019eau,\u00a0le<\/span>s cordelettes pourries cassaient d\u00e8s qu\u2019il tirait dessus.\u00a0Le<\/span>s vingt balances rest\u00e8rent au fond du canal, sans doute remplies d\u2019\u00e9crevisses. Et \u00e0 chaque remont\u00e9e, la mine de l\u2019expert s\u2019allongeait un peu plus, pendant que nous essayions tant bien que mal de r\u00e9primer un incontr\u00f4lable fou rire.<\/p>\n

La longue mine aujourd\u2019hui c\u2019est moi qui me la coltine. Parce que comme lui, au moment o\u00f9 je m\u2019appr\u00eate \u00e0 r\u00e9colter\u00a0le<\/span>s fruits de ce dur labeur, il ne se passe.. rien.<\/p>\n

Nous attendions depuis des semaines cette annonce\u00a0:\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0rachat par Prada de Versace \u00e0 Capri (notre position). C\u2019est enfin sorti\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a010 avril. Yes\u00a0! Je regarde\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0stock qui ne fait\u2026 rien.<\/p>\n

Pourtant en refaisant un calcul de coin de table, ce deal fait de Capri une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 qui n\u2019a plus de dette, d\u00e9tient un autre actif \u2013 Jimmy Choo – \u00e0 vendre pour minimum $500M et enfin Michael Kors qui devrait d\u00e9gager pr\u00e8s de $400 M de r\u00e9sultat op\u00e9rationnel cette ann\u00e9e. Si on enl\u00e8ve un peu d\u2019imp\u00f4ts et qu\u2019on divise par\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0nombre d\u2019actions (118M) on obtient un r\u00e9sultat par action de $1.50. Donc on a un PE de 10, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire des clopinettes. Ce niveau pourrait \u00eatre justifier si\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0business \u00e9tait mort. Mais s\u2019il l\u2019\u00e9tait, d\u2019une part on n\u2019aurait pas ces chiffres de r\u00e9sultats, d\u2019autre part la FTC ne sera pas venu bloquer il y a un an\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0rachat de Capri par Tapestry sur\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0motif de la position majeure de Capri sur\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0march\u00e9 des sacs \u00e0 main \u00ab\u00a0affordable\u00a0\u00bb comme ils disent.<\/p>\n

Une diff\u00e9rence avec mon histoire de balance\u00a0: notre cordelette \u00e0 nous est en nylon imputrescible donc on peut attendre. Comme\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0dit David Swartz, analyste chez Morningstar\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0Je pense que\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0march\u00e9 sous-\u00e9value la capacit\u00e9 de Michael Kors \u00e0 g\u00e9n\u00e9rer des flux de tr\u00e9sorerie r\u00e9guliers comme il l’a fait par\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0pass\u00e9. Soit\u00a0le<\/span> march\u00e9 changera d\u2019avis, soit la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 sera rachet\u00e9e. Mon sentiment est que lorsqu’une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 de ce secteur g\u00e9n\u00e8re des flux de tr\u00e9sorerie, il y a toujours quelqu’un quelque part qui voudra l’acheter. \u00bb<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n

Monocle Fund Performance<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n
\n

Au 25 Avril, Monocle (part A) est \u00e0 -4.37% sur 2025 et \u00e0 +3.26% en annualis\u00e9 sur 5 ans.<\/p>\n

On a donc bien r\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 cette semaine puisque\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0fonds reprend +370bp alors que notre exposition action nette n\u2019est que de 42% et que l\u2019indice MSCI a pris 4% sur la semaine.<\/p>\n

Sur la semaine,\u00a0le<\/span>s principaux contributeurs sont Novagold (+67 bp) mais l\u2019action redescend un peu en d\u00e9but de semaine et Galapagos (+38 bp) qui a finalement annonc\u00e9\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0nom du patron de la nouvelle entit\u00e9\u00a0: Henry Gosebruch, auparavant responsable de la partie de Abbvie (capitalisation $ 340 Mds) apr\u00e8s 20 ann\u00e9es chez JP Morgan en fusac dans\u00a0le<\/span>\u00a0secteur sant\u00e9. Comme Capri, Galapagos tra\u00eene au fond du canal avec un cours sous\u00a0le<\/span>s \u20ac24 alors qu\u2019elle d\u00e9tient \u20ac3.3 Mds de cash pour 68M d\u2019actions soit \u20ac48 par action.\u00a0Le<\/span>s r\u00e9sultats de LVMH avaient initialement d\u00e9\u00e7u mais \u00e7a s\u2019est vite repris, et\u00a0le<\/span>s actionnaires viennent de voter pour que Bernard Arnault rempile pour dix ans comme il est \u00e0 l\u2019industrie du luxe ce que Mac Arthur fut \u00e0 la guerre du Pacifique, c\u2019est une bonne nouvelle. Alphabet a sorti des r\u00e9sultats mieux qu\u2019attendu mais l\u00e0 \u00e7a s\u2019est calm\u00e9 dans l\u2019autre sens. Elle reste la plus abordable des 7 mammouths.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Je me rappelle il y a bien longtemps, je devais avoir douze ans, d\u2019une initiation \u00e0 la p\u00eache aux \u00e9crevisses. 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