{"id":5175,"date":"2025-05-15T17:53:31","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T15:53:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5175"},"modified":"2025-05-15T17:53:37","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T15:53:37","slug":"hier-soir-19h00-bourse-du-commerce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/05\/15\/hier-soir-19h00-bourse-du-commerce\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Hier soir, 19h00, Bourse du Commerce\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hier soir j’\u00e9tais \u00e0 une conf\u00e9rence o\u00f9 parlait Giulano da Empoli et….. Et je vois tout de suite \u00e0 vos t\u00eates que je commence \u00e0 vous sao\u00fbler avec Da Empoli..<\/span><\/p>\n

Alors changement de d\u00e9cor :\u00a0 Silicon Valley, 2000. Un jeune entrepreneur de tech (\u00ab\u00a0Techie 1\u00a0\u00bb) vient de vendre sa premi\u00e8re Startup pour $20M. Sur ce montant il pr\u00e9l\u00e8ve $1M pour s’acheter une MacLaren, et investit le reste dans son nouveau projet. Un de ses concurrents (\u00ab\u00a0Techie 2\u00a0\u00bb) vient frapper \u00e0 sa porte et lui dit qu’au lieu de se tirer la bourre, ils feraient mieux de s’associer. Accord conclu. Rapidement, les choses s’acc\u00e9l\u00e8rent et un rendez vous est organis\u00e9 pour aller lever de l’argent aupr\u00e8s du fonds de capital risque Sequoia.<\/p>\n

Pour y aller, Techie 1 prend la MacLaren. Techie 2 s’installe sur le si\u00e8ge passager. Au bout de quelques minutes, il demande : \u00ab\u00a0Alors, qu’est ce que tu peux faire avec ton avion de chasse ?\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Regarde\u00a0\u00bb, r\u00e9pond Techie 1.<\/p>\n

Techie 2 raconte, des ann\u00e9es plus tard : \u00ab\u00a0Elle a en quelque sorte fait un tour sur elle m\u00eame \u00e0 360 degr\u00e9s, mais dans l’air. Un objet volant non identifi\u00e9 planant \u00e0 2 m\u00e8tres au dessus de l’autoroute.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Miraculeusement, la voiture retombe sur ses roues. Apr\u00e8s avoir r\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 leurs esprits, les deux entrepreneurs, indemnes, arrivent chez Sequoia, en taxi. Business as usual.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alors les noms des vedettes ? Techie 1 c’est Elon Musk. Techie 2 c’est Peter Thiel. S’il y a vingt ans un platane mal plac\u00e9 – un palmier plut\u00f4t l\u00e0-bas – avait sabr\u00e9 la MacLaren, pas de Tesla, pas le m\u00eame Facebook (Thiel fut un des premiers actionnaires), peut \u00eatre pas de Trump vu l’importance de ces deux l\u00e0 dans ses deux campagnes, encore moins de JD Vance – toute sa campagne de s\u00e9nateur financ\u00e9e par Thiel. Cela tient finalement \u00e0 peu de choses.<\/p>\n

Cette histoire vient du livre de Nate Silver sur le risque \u00ab\u00a0On the Edge – The Art of Risking Everything\u00a0\u00bb. Silver est connu pour, apr\u00e8s quelques ann\u00e9es comme joueur de poker professionnel, avoir r\u00e9volutionn\u00e9 les pr\u00e9dictions d’\u00e9lections aux US en cr\u00e9ant FivetThirtyEight. C’est donc quelq’un qui s’y connait, et en prise de risque, et en stats. Et il citait cet exemple pour expliquer comment un type comme Musk voit le risque. Et il le voit ainsi : il n’y en a pas. Thiel a racont\u00e9 \u00e0 Silver qu’en sortant de la voiture, la r\u00e9action de Musk fut :\u00a0\u00bb Whahh, that was really intense, Peter !\u00a0\u00bb. Et dans le livre que Thiel voulait \u00e9crire sur l’aventure Paypal – qui sera rachet\u00e9e un an apr\u00e8s son IPO par Ebay pour $1.5 Mds – le chapitre consacr\u00e9 \u00e0 Elon avait comme titre \u00ab\u00a0The Man Who Knew Nothing About Risk.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

Cette histoire permet de mieux comprendre ce que Musk a fait avec Twitter, ou ce qu’il veut faire avec ses diff\u00e9rents projets. Ce qui tombe bien car, comme le disait da Empoli hier soir, Musk est le plus visible des condottieres de la tech qui sont en train d’appliquer leurs m\u00e9thodes \u00e0 la politique.<\/p>\n

Ok promis, rien sur Da Empoli dans le prochain billet. Mais c\u00e9tait tout de m\u00eame tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressant hier soir..<\/p>\n

Have a good week<\/p>\n

Charles<\/p>\n

PS: pour ceux qui ont lu jusqu’au bout, une cerise : la MacLaren a $1M n’\u00e9tait pas assur\u00e9e ….<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Monocle Fund Performance<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Au 5 Mai, Monocle (part A) est \u00e0 -3.12% sur 2025 et \u00e0 +3.45% en annualis\u00e9 sur 5 ans.<\/p>\n

On a donc continu\u00e9 \u00e0 compenser les pertes suites aux tumultes de Trump, on est maintenant \u00e0 -3.12% en YTD.<\/p>\n

Sur la semaine, les principaux contributeurs incluent notamment Duolingo (+\u202f28\u202fbps), qui prend le train de l\u2019intelligence artificielle, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 qui l\u2019offre de nouvelles langues explose. Nous avons d\u2019ailleurs r\u00e9duit cette ligne (un peu trop t\u00f4t au vu de la r\u00e9cente surperformance), car, IA ou non, la valorisation atteint 22,1\u202fMds\u202f$, soit environ 2\u202f150\u202f$ par utilisateur\u2026 beaucoup pour un abonnement annuel \u00e0 80\u202f$. \u00a0Galapagos (+22 bp) de son c\u00f4t\u00e9 continue d’afficher une croissance solide, avec +15% de chiffres d’affaires sur 12 mois. Et pour bien terminer la semaine, Aurora, notre action de camion autonome, affiche +18% sur la journ\u00e9e de vendredi. En cause, le lancement de ses premiers camions au Texas. \u00c0 d\u00e9faut de bras disponibles, le secteur pourra d\u00e9sormais compter sur des lignes de code !<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hier soir j’\u00e9tais \u00e0 une conf\u00e9rence o\u00f9 parlait Giulano da Empoli et….. 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