{"id":5179,"date":"2025-05-15T18:06:20","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T16:06:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5179"},"modified":"2025-05-15T18:06:34","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T16:06:34","slug":"the-bumble-rocket-show","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/05\/15\/the-bumble-rocket-show\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0The Bumble Rocket Show\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">\u00ab Sept cavaliers quitt\u00e8rent la ville au cr\u00e9puscule par la porte de l\u2019Ouest qui n\u2019\u00e9tait plus gard\u00e9e.\u00bb*\u00a0<\/span>Ce ne sont pas 7 mais 104,000 membres payants de l\u2019application Bumble qui ont quitt\u00e9 l\u2019appli durant le dernier trimestre. C\u2019\u00e9tait attendu\u00a0: Whitney Wolfe Herd, la boss et fondatrice de l\u2019application de rencontre, avait annonc\u00e9 qu\u2019elle voulait faire un peu de m\u00e9nage, en supprimant les faux comptes qui nuisent \u00e0 la qualit\u00e9 de son service. Car si dans l\u2019immobilier le mantra c\u2019est \u00ab\u00a0location, location, location\u00a0\u00bb, dans l\u2019app de rencontre c\u2019est \u00ab\u00a0quality, quality, quality\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>Quelques chiffres apr\u00e8s la publication cette semaine : sur ce trimestre, Bumble a g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 un chiffre d\u2019affaires de $250 M et un free cash flow de $30M. Ces $30M ont \u00e9t\u00e9 utilis\u00e9s pour racheter 4.7M d\u2019actions au cours du trimestre, soit environ 5% de la capitalisation. Pour donner une id\u00e9e en rythme annuel, il y avait 128 M d\u2019actions il y a un an, il y en a 104 M aujourd\u2019hui. Si je coupe ma pizza en 104 parts plut\u00f4t qu\u2019en 128 parts, chaque part est 128\/104 = 23% plus grosse.<\/p>\n<p>Cette m\u00e9canique devrait s\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer dans les prochains trimestres : si vous voulez de la qualit\u00e9 vous ne faites pas du marketing de masse. Donc Whitney a annonc\u00e9 qu\u2019ils commen\u00e7aient \u00e0 couper dans le budget marketing. Impact au prochain trimestre : $15M de FCF suppl\u00e9mentaires<\/p>\n<p>Au plus bas, il y a deux semaines, le march\u00e9, dans sa sagesse, valorisait cette soci\u00e9t\u00e9, avec ce genre de chiffres, moins de $600M. Bref, l\u2019action \u00e9tait tellement \u00e0 la cave avant les r\u00e9sultats que la r\u00e9action a \u00e9t\u00e9 violente : +32% en 48h.<\/p>\n<p>Malgr\u00e9 cette hausse, Bumble reste un bon dossier. Pour mettre les choses en perspectives, les grands chiffres de Bumble sont du m\u00eame ordre que ceux de Duolingo, avec une marge plus importante pour le premier et une croissance plus forte pour le second. Mais le march\u00e9 valorise la premi\u00e8re moins d\u2019 un milliard de USD, et la deuxi\u00e8me plus de vingt..Cela laisse de la place.<\/p>\n<p>Plus globalement, ce mois de mai a donc vu les march\u00e9s se calmer apr\u00e8s les secousses de d\u00e9but avril, et Trump faire, comme attendu, du Trump. Les indices sont remont\u00e9s \u2013 le SP500 a pris +8% sur un mois, le Nasdaq +10% &#8211; et la plupart de nos lignes ont nettement rebondi.<\/p>\n<p>Apr\u00e8s ces mouvements il faut faire le tri\u00a0: certaines de ces actions restent int\u00e9ressantes \u00e0 ces niveaux, d\u2019autres volent tr\u00e8s\/trop haut \u2013 Duolingo est \u00e0 +60% depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, a doubl\u00e9 sur un an, j\u2019adore Luis von Ahn mais \u00e0 ce niveau ce n\u2019est plus de l\u2019adoration mais de la passion.<\/p>\n<p>Il ne reste que Moderna et Galapagos qui ne font rien\u00a0: le march\u00e9 pense qu\u2019avec Kennedy Jr comme secr\u00e9taire \u00e0 la Sant\u00e9, nous allons d\u00e9sormais nous soigner uniquement avec des tisanes. Comme pour le reste, juste un peu de patience et \u00e7a devrait le faire.<\/p>\n<p>Correction\u00a0: 1 heure apr\u00e8s avoir \u00e9crit ce papier, Galapagos annonce que Paul Stoeffels fait sa valise avec effet imm\u00e9diat, qu\u2019il n\u2019y aura pas de spinoff. Il reste donc juste une tirelire de \u20ac3.3 Mds divis\u00e9 par 66 millions d\u2019actions soit \u20ac50 par action pour un truc c\u00f4t\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019instant\u2026 \u20ac24. J\u2019ai un call demain avec le nouveau boss, compte rendu d\u00e9taill\u00e9 la semaine prochaine.<\/p>\n<p>Au 12 Mai, Monocle (part A) est \u00e0 -0.18% sur 2025 et \u00e0 +3.88% en annualis\u00e9 sur 5 ans. Ca reprend des couleurs comme dirait l\u2019autre. Le fonds est emmen\u00e9 par Bumble (+89bp), Capri(+80bp) qui reprend +19% sur la semaine et Ouster (+49% &#8211; oui c &lsquo;est beaucoup, \u00e7a a aussi publi\u00e9 la semaine derni\u00e8re et les march\u00e9s ont bien aim\u00e9 comme vous le voyez). Aujourd\u2019hui nous avons pass\u00e9 quelques coups de s\u00e9cateur dans le portefeuille pour r\u00e9duire notre exposition vers 35%. Cela reste des march\u00e9s agit\u00e9s donc je soigne les sizing aux petits oignons.<\/p>\n<p>Excellente semaine \u00e0 vous.<\/p>\n<p>* Titre d un excellent bouquin de Jean Raspail (1993)<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00ab Sept cavaliers quitt\u00e8rent la ville au cr\u00e9puscule par la porte de l\u2019Ouest qui n\u2019\u00e9tait plus gard\u00e9e.\u00bb*\u00a0Ce ne sont pas 7 mais 104,000 membres payants de l\u2019application Bumble&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5180,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Monocle - 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