{"id":5185,"date":"2025-05-27T09:14:16","date_gmt":"2025-05-27T07:14:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5185"},"modified":"2025-05-27T09:14:22","modified_gmt":"2025-05-27T07:14:22","slug":"quagmire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/05\/27\/quagmire\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Quagmire\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"<table class=\"x_row x_row-2\" role=\"presentation\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"center\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table class=\"x_row-content x_stack\" role=\"presentation\" border=\"0\" width=\"575\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"center\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"x_column x_column-1\" width=\"100%\">\n<table class=\"x_text_block x_block-2\" role=\"presentation\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"x_pad\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"\">\n<p data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Mercredi dernier, un peu apr\u00e8s 22h00, je regardais \u2014 avant d\u2019\u00e9teindre \u2014\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>\u00a0communiqu\u00e9 des r\u00e9sultats de Luminar,\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>\u00a0sp\u00e9cialiste du Lidar mont\u00e9 par\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>\u00a0jeune Austin Russell (30 ans). Ceux-ci \u00e9taient conformes aux attentes, pas de r\u00e9action particuli\u00e8re sur\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>\u00a0titre apr\u00e8s cl\u00f4ture : j\u2019\u00e9teignais mon \u00e9cran pour aller dormir du sommeil du juste.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">Le<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>ndemain matin, c\u2019est\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>\u00a0sourcil en accent circonflexe que je d\u00e9couvris\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>s premi\u00e8res lignes du call de r\u00e9sultats :<\/p>\n<p>\u00abAustin Russell, fondateur, PDG et Pr\u00e9sident du Conseil d\u2019administration, d\u00e9missionne avec effet imm\u00e9diat \u00e0 la suite d\u2019une enqu\u00eate du Comit\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9thique, \u00e0 la demande du Conseil d\u2019administration.\u00bb<\/p>\n<p>J\u2019ai appris un truc dans ce m\u00e9tier : il ne faut pas oublier pourquoi on est rentr\u00e9 sur un stock. Trop souvent, on entre pour une raison A, qui finit par ne plus avoir aucune chance d\u2019advenir, mais on reste en imaginant une raison B, puis C\u2026 Mon exp\u00e9rience m\u2019a appris que \u00e7a ne se termine g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement pas bien.<\/p>\n<p>Sur un dossier comme Luminar, d\u00e9pendant totalement de son savoir-faire sur\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>\u00a0Lidar, avec des petits chiffres (revenus TTM : 77 M$) et une grosse dette (480 M$), notre raison pour toucher \u00e0 Luminar \u2014 qui affiche 80 % de volatilit\u00e9 \u2014 c\u2019\u00e9tait Austin Russell,\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>\u00a0gars qui bricolait des Lidars dans son garage \u00e0 16 ans (v\u00e9ridique !).<\/p>\n<p>Je savais qu\u2019il \u00e9tait un peu rock&rsquo;n&rsquo;roll : juste apr\u00e8s l\u2019IPO (\u00ab Initial Public Offering \u00bb, ou introduction en Bourse)\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>\u00a03 d\u00e9cembre 2020, Austin, 25 ans \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9poque, s\u2019\u00e9tait achet\u00e9 une bicoque \u00e0 Los Angeles pour\u2026 83 M$. Austin ne pratiquait donc pas la gestion \u00ab bon p\u00e8re de famille \u00bb \u2014 mais vu\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"markyola5zlda\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">billet<\/span>\u00a0pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, vous savez que Musk est pareil.<\/p>\n<p>Manque de chance : cette on\u00e9reuse cabane est partie en fum\u00e9e au d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, dans\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>s incendies de Californie. Je ne sais pas si c\u2019est en mettant la main dans\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>\u00a0tiroir-caisse ou \u00e0 un autre endroit d\u00e9fendu \u2014\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>\u00a0champ d\u2019investigation du Comit\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9thique est vaste \u2014 mais la conclusion, c\u2019est qu\u2019Austin est out.<\/p>\n<p>Et, par cons\u00e9quent, nous aussi. Dans la minute.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">Le<\/span>\u00a02 octobre 1963, Robert McNamara, secr\u00e9taire \u00e0 la D\u00e9fense, recommandait \u00e0 John Kennedy de retirer dans\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>s deux ans\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>s 16 000 \u00ab conseillers militaires \u00bb am\u00e9ricains du Vietnam, car il ne voyait pas d\u2019issue positive. Kennedy accepta. Cinquante jours plus tard, Kennedy \u00e9tait assassin\u00e9. Johnson devenait pr\u00e9sident et faisait demi-tour sur\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>\u00a0Vietnam. Toujours avec McNamara \u00e0 la D\u00e9fense, six ans plus tard,\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>s \u00c9tats-Unis auront 550 000 soldats au Vietnam. Cinquante mille morts c\u00f4t\u00e9 am\u00e9ricain, aucun gain notable : c\u2019est l\u2019exemple type du \u00ab quagmire \u00bb ou \u00ab bourbier \u00bb en g\u00e9opolitique.<\/p>\n<p>On aura laiss\u00e9 des plumes dans l\u2019affaire Luminar (47 bp sur l\u2019ensemble du trade) \u2014 mais la taille de la ligne \u00e9tait ajust\u00e9e en fonction du risque (0,9 % du fonds avant la vente), et quoi qu\u2019il arrive, cela ne deviendra pas un quagmire.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<table class=\"x_row x_row-3\" role=\"presentation\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"center\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table class=\"x_row-content x_stack\" role=\"presentation\" border=\"0\" width=\"575\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"center\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"x_column x_column-1\" width=\"100%\">\n<table class=\"x_divider_block x_block-1\" role=\"presentation\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"10\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"x_pad\">\n<div class=\"x_alignment\" align=\"center\">\n<table role=\"presentation\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"x_divider_inner\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<table class=\"x_row x_row-4\" role=\"presentation\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"center\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table class=\"x_row-content x_stack\" role=\"presentation\" border=\"0\" width=\"575\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"center\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"x_column x_column-1\" width=\"100%\">\n<table class=\"x_text_block x_block-1\" role=\"presentation\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"x_pad\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"\">\n<p><strong>Revue du fonds et des positions<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Au 19 mai, Monocle (part A) affiche une performance de +0,90 % en 2025, et de +4,43 % annualis\u00e9e sur 5 ans.<\/p>\n<p>Malgr\u00e9 un d\u00e9but d\u2019ann\u00e9e chahut\u00e9, notre persistance \u00e0 rester expos\u00e9s aux actions am\u00e9ricaines, et m\u00eame \u00e0\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>s renforcer lors du \u00ab Sell America \u00bb, s\u2019est av\u00e9r\u00e9e payante.<\/p>\n<p>Parmi\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>s principales contributions :<br \/>\n&#8211; Oklo (+77 %), qui profite de l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat croissant pour une \u00e9nergie bas carbone comme\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>\u00a0nucl\u00e9aire.<br \/>\n&#8211; Duolingo (+62 %), qui a \u00e9largi son offre gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l\u2019IA \u2014 ajout de langues, mais aussi de nouvelles mati\u00e8res comme\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>s \u00e9checs. Une anecdote sur son fondateur, Luis von Ahn : selon lui, l\u2019IA est d\u00e9j\u00e0 un meilleur professeur que n\u2019importe quel humain, mais l\u2019\u00e9cole survivra, car \u00ab you still need childcare \u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>Comme vous\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>\u00a0voyez, deux soci\u00e9t\u00e9s US&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">Le<\/span>s grands indices sont repass\u00e9s en territoire positif, Nvidia et Microsoft atteignent de nouveaux sommets. Comme me\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>\u00a0rappelait Guillaume hier: sur vingt ans, la seule vraie mani\u00e8re de perdre de l\u2019argent en actions, c\u2019est de payer trop cher. Je ne sais pas si l\u2019on paie trop cher aujourd\u2019hui, mais une chose est s\u00fbre : on paie tr\u00e8s cher. On a d\u2019ailleurs bien all\u00e9g\u00e9 la voilure sur\u00a0<span class=\"mark4hy0zr9z0\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">le<\/span>s actions, en passant d\u2019un peu plus de 40 % \u00e0 30 % d\u2019exposition. Un peu de prudence dans ce contexte, \u00e7a ne fait pas de mal.<\/p>\n<p>Have a good week,<\/p>\n<p>Charles<\/p>\n<p aria-hidden=\"true\">\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<table class=\"x_row x_row-5\" role=\"presentation\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"center\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table class=\"x_row-content x_stack\" role=\"presentation\" border=\"0\" width=\"575\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"center\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"x_column x_column-1\" width=\"100%\">\n<table class=\"x_divider_block x_block-1\" role=\"presentation\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"x_pad\">\n<div class=\"x_alignment\" align=\"center\">\n<table role=\"presentation\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"x_divider_inner\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<table class=\"x_heading_block x_block-2\" role=\"presentation\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"x_pad\">\n<h2><strong>Monocle Fund Performance<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<table class=\"x_text_block x_block-3\" role=\"presentation\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"x_pad\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"\">\n<p>Au 19 mai, Monocle (part A) affiche une performance de +0,90% en 2025.<\/p>\n<p>2024: +1.14%<br \/>\n2023: +7.67%<br \/>\n2022: -1.92%<br \/>\n2021: +4.23%<br \/>\n2020: +6.44%<br \/>\n2019: +6.09%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mercredi dernier, un peu apr\u00e8s 22h00, je regardais \u2014 avant d\u2019\u00e9teindre \u2014\u00a0le\u00a0communiqu\u00e9 des r\u00e9sultats de Luminar,\u00a0le\u00a0sp\u00e9cialiste du Lidar mont\u00e9 par\u00a0le\u00a0jeune Austin Russell (30 ans). Ceux-ci \u00e9taient conformes aux&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5186,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Monocle - &quot;Quagmire&quot;<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - &quot;Quagmire&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Mercredi dernier, un peu apr\u00e8s 22h00, je regardais \u2014 avant d\u2019\u00e9teindre \u2014\u00a0le\u00a0communiqu\u00e9 des r\u00e9sultats de Luminar,\u00a0le\u00a0sp\u00e9cialiste du Lidar mont\u00e9 par\u00a0le\u00a0jeune Austin Russell (30 ans). 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