{"id":5189,"date":"2025-05-28T14:08:08","date_gmt":"2025-05-28T12:08:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5189"},"modified":"2025-05-28T14:08:08","modified_gmt":"2025-05-28T12:08:08","slug":"le-signal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/05\/28\/le-signal\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Le signal\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Cela fait trois mois que, chaque lundi, j\u2019ouvre Google Trends dans l\u2019attente d\u2019un signal. Lundi matin, je l\u2019ai eu.<\/p>\n

E.L.F. Beauty est une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 de cosm\u00e9tiques visant la g\u00e9n\u00e9ration Y \u2014 cruelty free, vegan, etc. \u2014 fond\u00e9e en 2004. Rachet\u00e9e par le fonds de private equity TPG en 2014, celui-ci am\u00e8ne dans ses valises Tarang Amin \u2014 un bon \u2014 comme CEO, et introduit la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 en bourse \u00e0 New York en 2016. Ce n\u2019\u00e9tait pas le moment de toucher au titre : c\u2019est rarement une bonne id\u00e9e d\u2019acheter quand un fonds de private equity vend. L\u2019action ouvre \u00e0 30 $, descend \u00e0 8 $ dans les 18 mois qui suivent, puis remonte\u2026 Bref, en juin 2022, le titre tra\u00eene toujours autour des 30 $, son prix d\u2019introduction six ans plus t\u00f4t.<\/p>\n

Et c\u2019est \u00e0 ce moment qu\u2019arrive l\u2019effet Cap Canaveral : en pleine d\u00e9b\u00e2cle des march\u00e9s de 2022 \u2014 le Nasdaq finira l\u2019ann\u00e9e \u00e0 -33 % \u2014 E.L.F. double pour atteindre 60 $. Elle doublera encore dans les six mois suivants pour atteindre 120 $, puis encore une fois pour d\u00e9passer 200 $ il y a un an.<\/p>\n

Qu\u2019est-ce qui a chang\u00e9 ? La croissance. Qui \u00e9tait auparavant entre 0 et +10 %, s\u2019envole : par trimestre, E.L.F. affiche +26 %, puis +33 %, +49 %, +78 %\u2026<\/p>\n

Au dernier trimestre 2023, E.L.F. affiche une croissance de +85 %. C\u2019est apr\u00e8s cette publication que l\u2019action atteint les 200 $.<\/p>\n

Quel est le moteur ? Le m\u00eame que celui de Duolingo : les r\u00e9seaux sociaux. La puissance des influenceurs permet de rendre un message viral. Et la force de frappe est telle que cela cr\u00e9e les effets vus ci-dessus sur les chiffres.<\/p>\n

Par d\u00e9finition, ces moteurs ne sont pas stables dans le temps. Donc apr\u00e8s un \u00e9v\u00e9nement qui attire les foules \u2014 comme la mort-ressuscitation de la mascotte de Duolingo fin 2024, qui a certainement bien contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019explosion du nombre d\u2019utilisateurs au T1 \u2014 il faut se m\u00e9fier de l\u2019effet \u00ab gueule de bois \u00bb\u2026 d\u2019o\u00f9 notre sortie de Duolingo r\u00e9cemment.<\/p>\n

L\u2019effet \u00ab gueule de bois \u00bb sur E.L.F., c\u2019est une croissance qui baisse, vite. Sur les quatre derniers trimestres, elle a \u00e9t\u00e9 divis\u00e9e par deux : +71 %, puis +50 %, +39 %, +31 %, et surtout une pr\u00e9vision de +1 % pour le trimestre en cours, annonc\u00e9e le 6 f\u00e9vrier.<\/p>\n

L\u2019action a suivi, passant de 200 $ \u00e0 50 $ il y a un mois, avant de revenir \u00e0 90 $ hier.<\/p>\n

Donc, chaque lundi, depuis que je suis ce dossier, je v\u00e9rifie sur Google Trends si la magie E.L.F. reprend du poil de la b\u00eate. Et lundi, j\u2019ai vu que la courbe montait fortement depuis dix jours. Comme je ne vois pas de r\u00e9visions \u00e0 la hausse chez les analystes, il y a de quoi faire un \u00ab pop \u00bb si Tarang annonce de bonnes nouvelles.<\/p>\n

Nous avons pris une position hier (0,70 % du fonds, petite car volatilit\u00e9 de 70 % et valorisation toujours \u00e9lev\u00e9e).<\/p>\n

Publication ce soir apr\u00e8s la cl\u00f4ture US.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Revue du fonds et des positions<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Au 26 Mai, Monocle (part A) est \u00e0 +0.76% sur 2025 et \u00e0 +4.23% en annualis\u00e9 sur 5 ans. Avec 26% d\u2019actions, nous restons cal\u00e9s sur une posture prudente.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

2024: +1.14%
\n2023: +7.67%
\n2022: -1.92%
\n2021: +4.23%
\n2020: +6.44%<\/p>\n

Oklo continue de briller apr\u00e8s l\u2019ouverture par la NRC d\u2019un \u00ab readiness assessment \u00bb sur son micro-r\u00e9acteur et le coup de pouce r\u00e9glementaire promis par la Maison-Blanche. CyberArk reste un rempart\u2009: ses revenus trimestriels \u00e0 +43% confirment que la cybers\u00e9curit\u00e9 traverse les cycles sans trembler.<\/p>\n

Capri publie tout \u00e0 l’heure. Difficile d’avoir une id\u00e9e pr\u00e9cise de ce qu’on peut attendre mais cela reste peu cher.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Cela fait trois mois que, chaque lundi, j\u2019ouvre Google Trends dans l\u2019attente d\u2019un signal. Lundi matin, je l\u2019ai eu. E.L.F. 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