{"id":5203,"date":"2025-06-12T14:03:48","date_gmt":"2025-06-12T12:03:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5203"},"modified":"2025-06-12T14:03:48","modified_gmt":"2025-06-12T12:03:48","slug":"clignotant-orange","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/06\/12\/clignotant-orange\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Clignotant orange\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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J\u2019aime bien \u00e9crire. Dans un monde id\u00e9al, je prendrais le temps de vous ciseler un billet, confortablement install\u00e9 \u00e0 mon bureau, une tasse de caf\u00e9 \u00e0 port\u00e9e de main, en robe de chambre damass\u00e9e. Dans la vraie vie, avec une semaine marqu\u00e9e par Ouster \u00e0 +48%, Oklo +44% et Ginkgo +35%, on remettra le ciselage litt\u00e9raire \u00e0 plus tard.<\/p>\n

Je r\u00e9duis ces lignes les unes apr\u00e8s les autres, car m\u00eame si certaines valeurs ont b\u00e9n\u00e9fici\u00e9 de bonnes nouvelles (Ouster retenu par la US Navy pour \u00e9quiper ses drones ; Oklo qui progresse sur sa licence), les valorisations atteintes aujourd\u2019hui correspondent \u00e0 celles qu\u2019elles devraient avoir dans quelques ann\u00e9es\u2026 si tout se passe bien.<\/p>\n

Pour donner un exemple : j\u2019ai vendu Oklo la semaine derni\u00e8re lorsqu\u2019elle est mont\u00e9e \u00e0 $50 sur fond d\u2019annonces pro-nucl\u00e9aires de Trump. Hier, elle grimpait encore d\u2019un \u00e9tage, atteignant $66. \u00ab Dommage ! \u00bb m\u2019a dit Max. Bien d\u2019accord avec lui, mais d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 $50, la capitalisation boursi\u00e8re s\u2019\u00e9levait \u00e0 $7 Mds pour une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 qui, si tout va bien \u2013 et ce \u00ab\u00a0tout\u00a0\u00bb englobe l\u2019obtention de la licence, la construction et l\u2019exploitation de plusieurs dizaines de centrales nucl\u00e9aires, un poil plus complexe qu\u2019une pompe \u00e0 chaleur \u2013 r\u00e9alisera environ $1 Mds de chiffre d\u2019affaires annuel. J\u2019ajoutais qu\u2019il faudra financer tout cela, ce qui pose la question des augmentations de capital. La r\u00e9ponse ne s\u2019est pas fait attendre : hier soir, apr\u00e8s la cl\u00f4ture, Jacob DeWitte, le patron d\u2019Oklo, a annonc\u00e9 une lev\u00e9e de fonds de $400 M. Quelque part, lui aussi se dit que c\u2019est un bon moment pour vendre des actions OKLO.<\/p>\n

Plus largement, ces valorisations d\u00e9sormais \u00e9lev\u00e9es sont le signe d\u2019un retour de l\u2019euphorie. Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne n\u2019est pas encore g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9 \u2014 parmi les tr\u00e8s grosses capitalisations, seules Microsoft et Meta tutoient leurs plus hauts historiques \u2014 mais le march\u00e9 est tout de m\u00eame remont\u00e9 tr\u00e8s vite. Et les valeurs cit\u00e9es plus haut me semblent plus repr\u00e9sentatives de l\u2019ambiance g\u00e9n\u00e9rale.<\/p>\n

Pour donner une id\u00e9e de ce \u00ab tr\u00e8s vite \u00bb, les \u00e9quipes de MAN (gros hedge fund avec $175 Mds sous gestion) ont publi\u00e9 le graphique suivant:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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En ampleur on est donc dans des \u00e9v\u00e9nements genre septembre 2002, octobre 2008, f\u00e9vrier 2009 et mars 2020 : du gros temps en deux mots.<\/p>\n

Par gros temps toujours mieux de v\u00e9rifier si tout est bien \u00e0 sa place donc je vous sugg\u00e8re de regarder vos portefeuilles en d\u00e9tail et de nettoyer ce qui doit l\u2019\u00eatre avant l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Have a good week<\/p>\n

Charles<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Performance et march\u00e9s<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Au 10 Juin, Monocle (part A) est \u00e0 +2,16% sur 2025 et \u00e0 +3,06% en annualis\u00e9 sur 5 ans.<\/p>\n

2024: +1,14%
\n2023: +7,67%
\n2022: -1,92%
\n2021: +4,23%
\n2020: +6,44%<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sur la semaine, nous avons remont\u00e9 l\u2019exposition USD \u00e0 15 %, \u00e0 l\u2019occasion du roll de nos couvertures. C\u2019est un point important \u00e0 garder en t\u00eate lorsqu\u2019on nous compare \u00e0 des fonds flexibles europ\u00e9ens : nous couvrons une partie de notre exposition USD, mais pas l\u2019int\u00e9gralit\u00e9 (elle \u00e9tait de 7 % en d\u00e9but d\u2019ann\u00e9e).<\/p>\n

Comme le dollar est pass\u00e9 de 1.03 \u00e0 1.15 depuis janvier, cela nous co\u00fbte pr\u00e8s de 1 % de performance. \u00c0 1.15, le niveau semble int\u00e9ressant pour reprendre un peu d\u2019exposition.<\/p>\n

Par ailleurs, comme \u00e9voqu\u00e9 pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment, nous souhaitons aborder l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 avec des risques ma\u00eetris\u00e9s. Nous conservons donc nos lignes les plus volatiles \u2013 Ouster, Oklo, Affirm, qui affichent entre 80 % et 110 % de volatilit\u00e9 \u2013 \u00e0 des tailles maximales de 1.5 %.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

J\u2019aime bien \u00e9crire. Dans un monde id\u00e9al, je prendrais le temps de vous ciseler un billet, confortablement install\u00e9 \u00e0 mon bureau, une tasse de caf\u00e9 \u00e0 port\u00e9e de…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5208,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5203","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - "Clignotant orange"<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - "Clignotant orange"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"J\u2019aime bien \u00e9crire. 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