{"id":5221,"date":"2025-06-26T18:44:41","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T16:44:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5221"},"modified":"2025-06-27T09:43:24","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T07:43:24","slug":"left-nix","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/06\/26\/left-nix\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0LEFT NIX\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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Depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, le cours de Netflix grimpe fort : +43 %. Sur un an, +90 %. Et sur trois ans, un cocasse +570 %. R\u00e9sultat : une capitalisation de $544 milliards, ce qui soul\u00e8ve une question l\u00e9gitime : est-ce que le titre n\u2019est pas devenu trop cher ?<\/p>\n

Il existe de nombreux moyens de tenter de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 cette question. Un indicateur que j\u2019aime bien \u2013 parce qu\u2019il est un peu d\u00e9cal\u00e9 \u2013 c\u2019est le ratio\u00a0valeur de march\u00e9 \/ nombre d\u2019employ\u00e9s<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Par exemple, Microsoft vaut aujourd\u2019hui environ $2 800 milliards et compte 128 000 employ\u00e9s, soit une valorisation implicite de\u00a0$12 millions par employ\u00e9<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 on notera que ce n\u2019est pas exactement des clopinettes, $12 millions pour un gus. Alphabet tourne autour de\u00a0$10 millions<\/strong>, et Meta \u2013 \u00e9galement \u00e0 des sommets de valo \u2013 atteint environ\u00a0$20 millions<\/strong>\u00a0par employ\u00e9. Deux europ\u00e9ennes pour compl\u00e9ter le tableau : Herm\u00e8s est valoris\u00e9e \u00e0 environ\u00a0$10 millions<\/strong>\u00a0par salari\u00e9, et Ferrari autour de\u00a0$15 millions<\/strong>. Ces chiffres sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 consid\u00e9rables.<\/p>\n

Mais Netflix pousse ce raisonnement \u00e0 un tout autre niveau. Avec 14 000 employ\u00e9s pour une valorisation de $544 milliards, on arrive \u00e0\u00a0$39 millions<\/strong>\u00a0par employ\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Alors oui, \u00e7a vaut ce que \u00e7a vaut cet indicateur. Je compare des trucs pas comparables, etc. \u2014 d\u2019accord avec tout \u00e7a. Mais quand m\u00eame, comme disait Staline : \u00ab Le Pape, combien de divisions ? \u00bb*<\/p>\n

\u00c0 quoi ressemble l\u2019avenir pour Netflix ? Sur son march\u00e9 domestique (\u00c9tats-Unis et Canada), Netflix compte environ\u00a090 millions d\u2019abonn\u00e9s<\/strong>\u00a0payants, sur un total de\u00a0145 millions de foyers<\/strong>. Cela repr\u00e9sente un taux de p\u00e9n\u00e9tration de 61 %. Les prochains points de part de march\u00e9 seront les plus difficiles \u00e0 conqu\u00e9rir \u2013 \u00e0 tel point que Netflix a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de\u00a0ne plus publier ces chiffres \u00e0 l\u2019avenir<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Quand une entreprise devient plus opaque sur ses indicateurs cl\u00e9s, et que sa valorisation atteint la stratosph\u00e8re, il est bon de s\u2019offrir un petit moment de r\u00e9flexion. Plus globalement, ce niveau de valo sur Netflix, le SP500 revenu \u00e0 ses plus hauts avec un VIX sous les 18 malgr\u00e9 les \u00e9v\u00e9nements de ce week-end, tout cela donne un ensemble de signaux qui sugg\u00e8re un certain degr\u00e9 de complaisance aujourd\u2019hui. Et complaisance, \u00e7a rime avec prudence, surtout \u00e0 l\u2019approche de l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 et des publications de Q2.<\/p>\n

\u00ab NETFLIX \u00bb \u00e0 l\u2019envers \u00e7a donne \u00ab LEFT NIX \u00bb. Renaud, bilingue et philosophe, aurait traduit \u00e7a par \u00ab Laisse b\u00e9ton \u00bb.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Performance et march\u00e9s<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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On s\u2019est pris une claque sur la performance vendredi \u00e0 cause d\u2019un trade qui a eu lieu sur nos notes SAS. Jusqu\u2019ici, il n\u2019y avait eu aucune transaction sur ce papier, que nous avons re\u00e7u fin 2024 dans la restructuration de cette compagnie a\u00e9rienne. Pour rappel, SAS nous a rembours\u00e9 une partie de nos sous fin 2024, et a mis \u20ac195M dans une holding luxembourgeoise, avec un contrat stipulant que si l\u2019aide que la Su\u00e8de et le Danemark ont apport\u00e9e \u00e0 SAS n\u2019est pas retoqu\u00e9e par la Cour de justice europ\u00e9enne, les \u20ac195M et leurs int\u00e9r\u00eats sont \u00e0 nous. Dans ce sc\u00e9nario-l\u00e0, ce papier devrait valoir 100 de nominal.<\/p>\n

Prudemment, nous l\u2019avions valoris\u00e9 \u00e0 50 dans le fonds, en faisant une moyenne pond\u00e9r\u00e9e de diff\u00e9rents sc\u00e9narios. Nous ne voulions pas prendre le prix Bloomberg, qui avait cette t\u00eate-l\u00e0 :
\n\u00ab Rollercoaster \u00bb, comme disent les Anglais.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Mais j\u2019ai finalement appris mercredi qu\u2019un trade avait eu lieu \u00e0 25.50 il y a deux mois. Il y a un gars qui en a eu marre \u2014 c\u2019est le genre de position qui vous g\u00e9n\u00e8re une palanqu\u00e9e de questions de votre conseil d\u2019administration, de votre risk manager, de votre auditeur\u2026 bref, de la terre enti\u00e8re \u2014 et qui a donc vendu ses titres \u00e0 un hedge fund. \u00c0 partir du moment o\u00f9 l\u2019on sait qu\u2019il y a eu un trade, nous devons prendre le cours de Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 50 cts, la note SAS repr\u00e9sentait 1.80 % du fonds, donc le passage au cours de 27 cts nous co\u00fbte 80 bp sur la semaine. Ceci \u00e9tant dit, je n\u2019ai aucune envie de vendre ce papier \u00e0 ces prix.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est Ryanair qui a attaqu\u00e9 une vingtaine de compagnies nationales apr\u00e8s le COVID pour aide ill\u00e9gale de leurs \u00c9tats respectifs. Ryanair a gagn\u00e9 un set en mai 2023 contre SAS. Mais six mois plus tard, cette d\u00e9cision a \u00e9t\u00e9 retourn\u00e9e, et depuis, Ryanair n\u2019a fait que perdre \u2013 deux derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cisions en 2025. C\u2019est s\u00fbr que quand je lis des arr\u00eats qui commencent par \u00ab Ryanair contre R\u00e9publique de France, Royaume d\u2019Espagne et Commission europ\u00e9enne \u00bb, je me dis que la probabilit\u00e9 de succ\u00e8s de Ryanair a l\u2019air aussi \u00e9paisse qu\u2019un sandwich SNCF, comme aurait dit le m\u00eame Renaud.<\/p>\n

Avec le nouveau prix, la ligne repr\u00e9sente d\u00e9sormais 1 % du fonds. Une taille o\u00f9 on ne peut plus se faire trop secouer, et avec une probabilit\u00e9 cons\u00e9quente de faire x4.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sur le reste du fonds, dans une semaine o\u00f9 le SP500 prend 2 % \u2014 malgr\u00e9 l\u2019Iran \u2014 nos actions se comportent bien :<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

– Ouster, le sp\u00e9cialiste du lidar, prend +18 % \u2014 Ouster a juste tripl\u00e9 en trois mois. Complaisance, je vous dis. J\u2019ai recoup\u00e9 la ligne, qui ne p\u00e8se plus que 0.6 % du portefeuille.
\n– Lightpath b\u00e9n\u00e9ficie des d\u00e9veloppements militaires et prend +9 %
\n– Ginkgo (+7 %), Affirm (+6 %) et Moderna (+5 %) \u2014 sur Moderna, si RFK** passe sous un bus, accrochez vos ceintures.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 la baisse : LVMH \u00e0 -3 %, Galapagos -3 % \u00e9galement \u2014 il est temps qu\u2019Henry*** annonce quelque chose.<\/p>\n

On notera que Duolingo, que nous avions vendu \u00e0 $516 malgr\u00e9 toute la qualit\u00e9 de la bo\u00eete, a c\u00e9d\u00e9 12 % sur la semaine et 18 % depuis notre vente \u2014 comme quoi, m\u00eame sur des actions de croissance, faire un calcul de valo peut \u00eatre utile.<\/p>\n

Au 25 juin, Monocle (part A) est \u00e0 +1.51 % sur 2025 et \u00e0 +3.14 % annualis\u00e9 sur 5 ans.<\/p>\n

Historique :
\n2024 : +1.14 %
\n2023 : +7.67 %
\n2022 : -1.92 %
\n2021 : +4.23 %
\n2020 : +6.44 %<\/p>\n

Charles<\/p>\n

PS : J\u2019ai fini ce texte hier \u00e0 14h30. Au m\u00eame moment, j\u2019ai appris qu\u2019un des brokers avait boug\u00e9 son prix estim\u00e9 sur SAS de 27 \u00e0 20 (pas bon), et qu\u2019en m\u00eame temps, Bumble annon\u00e7ait une guidance plus forte et des baisses de co\u00fbts (tr\u00e8s bon \u2014 l\u2019action a pris +21 % dans la journ\u00e9e). Donc, pardonnez le retard, je fais de mon mieux !<\/p>\n

* Staline parlait de divisions arm\u00e9es et r\u00e9pondait \u00e0 Churchill
\n** Robert F. Kennedy, le Secr\u00e9taire \u00e0 la Sant\u00e9 un poil \u00e9trange de Trump 2
\n*** Henry Gosebruch, le nouveau patron de Galapagos<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

source du graph: Bloomberg<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, le cours de Netflix grimpe fort : +43 %. Sur un an, +90 %. Et sur trois ans, un cocasse +570 %. R\u00e9sultat…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5225,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - "LEFT NIX"<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - "LEFT NIX"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, le cours de Netflix grimpe fort : +43 %. Sur un an, +90 %. 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