{"id":5230,"date":"2025-07-15T11:22:33","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T09:22:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5230"},"modified":"2025-07-15T15:28:32","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T13:28:32","slug":"la-chute-de-lempire-romain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/07\/15\/la-chute-de-lempire-romain\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0LA CHUTE DE L’EMPIRE ROMAIN\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Lundi, fatigu\u00e9 par les vicissitudes du m\u00e9tier de g\u00e9rant, j\u2019achetais, pour me changer les id\u00e9es et pour quatre euros, La Chute de l\u2019Empire Romain<\/em> (J. Coudy, 1967). Apr\u00e8s avoir lu quelques pages sur la vie quotidienne des imperators<\/em> de l\u2019\u00e9poque \u2014 qui devaient g\u00e9rer les Francs \u00e0 l\u2019Ouest, les Goths au Nord, les Huns \u00e0 l\u2019Est et les Perses au Sud, tout cela sans m\u00eame un t\u00e9l\u00e9phone \u2014, mon probl\u00e8me m\u2019a soudain paru plus petit.<\/p>\n

Ce probl\u00e8me c’est que faire avec ces march\u00e9s, \u00e0 ce niveau ?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ce soir, NVIDIA inscrit un nouveau plus haut et s\u2019approche des 4 000 milliards de dollars de capitalisation. Elle a gagn\u00e9 +60 % en trois mois. On observe des dynamiques similaires sur des titres comme META, MICROSOFT ou NETFLIX.<\/p>\n

Quelques exemples moins connus : COREWEAVE, soci\u00e9t\u00e9 d\u2019IA, a \u00e9t\u00e9 introduite en Bourse fin mars \u00e0 40 $, ce qui repr\u00e9sentait une capitalisation d\u2019environ 20 milliards. Apr\u00e8s un mois d\u2019avril poussif, l\u2019action a quadrupl\u00e9 en deux mois. M\u00eame chose avec CIRCLE, une plateforme crypto : introduite \u00e0 31 $ le 5 juin, elle cote aujourd\u2019hui 186 $.<\/p>\n

Enfin, il y a les titres que je connais mieux parce qu\u2019ils sont \u2014 ou ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u2014 dans le fonds. <\/strong>GINGKO a gagn\u00e9 72 % en un mois (vente finale ce soir). Quand nous sommes entr\u00e9s sur ce titre en octobre autour de 8,00 $, la capitalisation \u00e9tait de 400 M$, avec 700 M$ de cash. Aujourd\u2019hui, il reste 520 M$ en caisse (au 31 mars) et la capitalisation est remont\u00e9e \u00e0 720 M$, sans aucune nouvelle fondamentale durant la p\u00e9riode.<\/p>\n

OUSTER, un autre de nos titres, a tripl\u00e9 en deux mois. Ce soir, OUSTER vaut 1,2 milliard de dollars. C\u2019est beaucoup pour une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 qui a vendu pour seulement $33 millions de ses fameux lidars (\u00ab\u00a0radar optique\u00a0\u00bb) au dernier trimestre \u2014 lidars qu\u2019il faut produire, ce n\u2019est pas du logiciel. Et si j\u2019appr\u00e9cie Angus Pacala, le CEO d\u2019OUSTER, je ne pense pas qu\u2019il soit du calibre d\u2019un Max Levchin (AFFIRM) ou d\u2019un Luis von Ahn (DUOLINGO).<\/p>\n

En r\u00e9sum\u00e9, tous ces signes sont des signes d’euphorie. <\/strong>Elle ne saute pas imm\u00e9diatement aux yeux, car certaines grandes capitalisations cr\u00e9ent une distorsion sur les indices pond\u00e9r\u00e9s : depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, TESLA est \u00e0 -20 %, APPLE \u00e0 -15 %, ALPHABET \u00e0 -5 %, ce qui p\u00e8se sur le S&P 500. Mais une fois corrig\u00e9s ces effets, on est bien face \u00e0 des march\u00e9s euphoriques, donc dangereux.<\/p>\n

Je peux bien s\u00fbr me tromper. PALANTIR, dont j\u2019expliquais ici il y a quelques mois qu\u2019une valorisation de 150 Mds $ (soit 50 fois les ventes) n\u2019\u00e9tait pas raisonnable, vaut ce soir 315 Mds $. Mais je garde en t\u00eate cette d\u00e9finition de l\u2019\u00e9conomiste Galbraith :<\/p>\n

\u00ab Une bulle est une formation qui cesse d\u2019exister \u00e0 l\u2019instant o\u00f9 l\u2019argent frais cesse d\u2019y rentrer. \u00bb<\/strong><\/p>\n

Il y a quatre jours, PALANTIR a perdu pr\u00e8s de 10 %, sur un volume deux fois sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la normale, sans aucune nouvelle. De quoi r\u00e9veiller l\u2019esprit critique.<\/p>\n

C’est le moment de revenir \u00e0 mes Romains : <\/strong>La premi\u00e8re vraie racl\u00e9e, c\u2019est la bataille d\u2019Andrinople en 378 contre les Wisigoths, o\u00f9 Rome est battue et l\u2019empereur Valens tu\u00e9. Ensuite, c\u2019est la chute, avec pour point bas le sac de Rome en 410 par Alaric. Rome ne s\u2019en est jamais relev\u00e9e. \u00c0 quel moment les Romains ont-ils manqu\u00e9 de sens critique ? En 376, quand les Wisigoths demand\u00e8rent \u00e0 franchir le Danube pour fuir les Huns. Les Romains ont r\u00e9pondu \u00ab\u00a0Welcome!\u00a0\u00bb, pensant y trouver des ressources fra\u00eeches pour d\u00e9fendre l\u2019Empire.<\/p>\n

Error fatalis.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sur ces m\u00e9ditations de haute vol\u00e9e, vous noterez que ce billet arrive tard dans la semaine.
\nOn va donc faire une pause pour remettre les machines \u00e0 z\u00e9ro avant les publications des r\u00e9sultats du T2, \u00e0 partir du 20 juillet. Donc pas de billet les deux prochaines semaines.<\/p>\n

Merci de votre fidelit\u00e9 et \u00e0 bient\u00f4t,<\/p>\n

Charles<\/p>\n

\n

Au 2 Juillet, Monocle (part A) est \u00e0 +2.31% sur 2025 et \u00e0 +3.58% en annualis\u00e9 sur 5 ans.<\/strong><\/p>\n

2024: +1.14%
\n2023: +7.67%
\n2022: -1.92%
\n2021: +4.23%
\n2020: +6.44%<\/p>\n

Sur la semaine r\u00e9duction de \u00a0BUMBLE \u00e0\u00a0 1.4% du fonds apr\u00e8s la hausse de +26% mentionn\u00e9e la semaine derni\u00e8re \u2013 \u00e7a reste peu cher \u00e7a. Sortie \u00e9galement de OUSTER et GINGKO comme expliqu\u00e9 ci-dessus apr\u00e8s de tr\u00e8s bonne performance sur ces deux lignes. L\u2019exposition nette du fonds aux actions est de 23%, dont les \u00be sont des actions am\u00e9ricaines. Enfin on retient que nous avons une exposition au USD, remont\u00e9e \u00e0 12% r\u00e9cemment dans la baisse.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lundi, fatigu\u00e9 par les vicissitudes du m\u00e9tier de g\u00e9rant, j\u2019achetais, pour me changer les id\u00e9es et pour quatre euros, La Chute de l\u2019Empire Romain (J. Coudy, 1967). Apr\u00e8s…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5231,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - "LA CHUTE DE L'EMPIRE ROMAIN"<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - "LA CHUTE DE L'EMPIRE ROMAIN"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Lundi, fatigu\u00e9 par les vicissitudes du m\u00e9tier de g\u00e9rant, j\u2019achetais, pour me changer les id\u00e9es et pour quatre euros, La Chute de l\u2019Empire Romain (J. Coudy, 1967). 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