{"id":5249,"date":"2025-07-31T16:23:44","date_gmt":"2025-07-31T14:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5249"},"modified":"2025-07-31T16:23:44","modified_gmt":"2025-07-31T14:23:44","slug":"le-retour-du-billet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/07\/31\/le-retour-du-billet\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0LE RETOUR DU BILLET\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bonjour \u00e0 tous,<\/span><\/p>\n

Un peu rouill\u00e9 par ces trois semaines sans billet, soyez tol\u00e9rants pour ce premier billet de retour\u00a0!<\/p>\n

LVMH<\/strong>\u00a0a publi\u00e9 la semaine derni\u00e8re des r\u00e9sultats pas mirobolants mais le march\u00e9 \u00e9tait tellement pessimiste que le stock est remont\u00e9 \u2013 un peu.\u00a0Malgr\u00e9 cela, avec les \u20ac483 affich\u00e9s aujourd\u2019hui, le cours est revenu \u00e0 son niveau de fin 2020<\/strong>. Si vous avez achet\u00e9 du LVMH apr\u00e8s cette p\u00e9riode, vous \u00eates dans le rouge. Et du rouge sang si vous regardez en euros constants car\u00a0un Euro de 2020 vaut 1.23 Euro d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Sur le graphique ci-dessus, on voit le cours de LVMH en vert\/rouge, et en blanc le ratio [capitalisation\/ebit ].<\/p>\n

On retiendra\u00a0:<\/p>\n

1\/ que le multiple est plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 depuis le \u00a0COVID\u00a0\u2013 m\u00eame aujourd\u2019hui.<\/p>\n

2\/ qu\u2019il y a eu une belle bulle en 2021.<\/p>\n

3\/ et surtout\u00a0: ceux qui se sont fait le plus mal sont ceux qui ont achet\u00e9 quand le multiple \u00e9tait en haut\u00a0: fin 2021, d\u00e9but 2023, d\u00e9but 2024.<\/p>\n

Le dernier point est une r\u00e8gle souvent \u2013 tr\u00e8s souvent – juste\u00a0:\u00a0si vous payez un multiple tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9, il sera difficile de faire de la performance. M\u00eame si le profit de LVMH a plus que doubl\u00e9 depuis 2020, si vous avez pay\u00e9 les 25x (le sommet de la ligne blanche) en d\u00e9cembre 2020, vous \u00eates en pertes aujourd\u2019hui.<\/p>\n

Alors si vous lisez ces lignes en vous disant \u00ab\u00a0oui, \u00e7a fait du sens\u00a0\u00bb, je vous informe que le m\u00eame multiple sur Microsoft, qui publie ce soir, est \u00e0 26.60 \u00e0 aujourd\u2019hui. Soit au plus haut depuis 5 ans. \u00a0Le plancher sur cette p\u00e9riode est \u00e0 18x, 33% plus bas.<\/p>\n

Bonne semaine<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Charles<\/p>\n

***********************************************************<\/p>\n

Positions<\/p>\n

Au 29 Juillet, Monocle (part A) est \u00e0 +4.42% sur 2025 et \u00e0 +3.84% en annualis\u00e9 sur 5 ans.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

2024: +1.14%<\/p>\n

2023: +7.67%<\/p>\n

2022: -1.92%<\/p>\n

2021: +4.23%<\/p>\n

2020: +6.44%<\/p>\n

Bon mois de juillet pour le fonds qui reprend pr\u00e8s de 3%. Les premiers contributeurs sont Galapagos et Moderna. Sur Galapagos le march\u00e9 commence \u00e0 comprendre qu\u2019une cashbox de \u20ac3.1 Mds \u00e0 une valeur de \u20ac1.5 Mds est un non-sens. Sur Moderna \u00e9galement la vision pessimiste du march\u00e9 s\u2019est calm\u00e9e. Le short interest (% de vendeurs \u00e0 d\u00e9couvert) est important \u00e0 17%. S\u2019il y a une bonne nouvelle \u00e0 la hausse \u2013 par exemple que le secr\u00e9taire \u00e0 la sant\u00e9 US Robert Kennedy, connu pour ses positions anti-vaccins, est pass\u00e9 sous un train \u2013 la r\u00e9action \u00e0 la hausse pourrait \u00eatre violente. L\u2019exposition action est \u00e0 20%\u00a0: je pr\u00e9f\u00e8re la jouer \u00ab\u00a0petits bras\u00a0\u00bb dans ce march\u00e9 o\u00f9 les valorisations sont \u00e9lev\u00e9es \u2013 voir ci-dessus \u2013 et les indicateurs de risques \u2013 Vix, spread de taux, bitcoin, ce que vous voulez.. \u2013 refl\u00e8tent tous la m\u00eame chose\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0rien ne peut arriver.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le Billet ne meurt jamais….<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5225,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - "LE RETOUR DU BILLET"<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - "LE RETOUR DU BILLET"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le Billet ne meurt jamais....\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/07\/31\/le-retour-du-billet\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Monocle\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-07-31T14:23:44+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-1753887521570.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"601\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/31\\\/le-retour-du-billet\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/31\\\/le-retour-du-billet\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f095305e6c0f0cb67a0905de33670595\"},\"headline\":\"\u00ab\u00a0LE RETOUR DU BILLET\u00a0\u00bb\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-07-31T14:23:44+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/31\\\/le-retour-du-billet\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":442,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/31\\\/le-retour-du-billet\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/06\\\/image-1753887521570.jpeg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Les Billets de Monocle\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/31\\\/le-retour-du-billet\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/31\\\/le-retour-du-billet\\\/\",\"name\":\"Monocle - 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