{"id":5254,"date":"2025-08-11T13:56:09","date_gmt":"2025-08-11T11:56:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5254"},"modified":"2025-08-11T13:56:09","modified_gmt":"2025-08-11T11:56:09","slug":"le-billet-sinon-rien","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/08\/11\/le-billet-sinon-rien\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0LE BILLET SINON RIEN\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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La semaine derni\u00e8re je d\u00e9cide, apr\u00e8s plusieurs mois sans \u00eatre mont\u00e9 sur une selle, d\u2019accompagner mon p\u00e8re \u00e0 cheval. Le cheval en question, 5 ans, arrive directement des courses, sans \u00eatre pass\u00e9 par la case \u00ab D\u00e9part \u00bb.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Avant m\u00eame d\u2019avoir mis mon pied dans l\u2019\u00e9trier j\u2019entends mon p\u00e8re commencer \u00e0 me distiller dans l\u2019oreille une longue suite de conseils \u2013 \u00ab \u00a0Attention, c\u2019est un jeune cheval\u2026 tu n\u2019aurais pas d\u00fb mettre tes \u00e9perons.. Surveille tes mains.. Jean-Claude Trucmuche, en 1975, a perdu son genou sur un jeune cheval comme celui-ci\u2026 \u00bb – conseils que j\u2019\u00e9coute d\u2019une oreille distraite en me disant que \u00ab je sais \u00bb.<\/p>\n

Tout de m\u00eame, au douzi\u00e8me conseil, je me dis qu\u2019il pourrait \u00eatre utile de v\u00e9rifier si je suis bien sangl\u00e9, au cas o\u00f9 cet animal, jusque l\u00e0 docile, s\u2019av\u00e9rait plus compliqu\u00e9 que pr\u00e9vu. A peine mes doigts ont-ils effleur\u00e9 son ventre \u00e0 la recherche de la sangle que je me retrouve au milieu du champ, heureusement encore sur le canasson, apr\u00e8s un d\u00e9part-arr\u00eat\u00e9 de 100m en mode \u00ab\u00a0Countach\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n

Morale : toujours \u00e9couter les anciens<\/u><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Dans nos m\u00e9tiers, que disent-ils, les anciens ? J\u2019\u00e9coutais ce matin Jeremy Grantham, 86 ans, le fondateur de GMO LLC, connu pour avoir nomm\u00e9 plusieurs tournants de march\u00e9 \u2013 le pic du Nikkei en 1989, le pic des US en 2000 et le plus bas de 2009 entre autres. Il a suffisamment de bouteille pour avoir v\u00e9cu des s\u00e9quences o\u00f9 les march\u00e9s ont mis des ann\u00e9es \u00e0 remonter la pente apr\u00e8s des corrections s\u00e9v\u00e8res, comme dans les ann\u00e9es 70.<\/p>\n

Ce que dit Grantham aujourd\u2019hui, c\u2019est que plusieurs indicateurs de valorisation sont au plus haut \u2013 \u00e7a nous le savons d\u00e9j\u00e0 : il suffit de regarder la valorisation de Palantir \u00e0 cent fois non pas le r\u00e9sultat mais les ventes pour voir \u00ab the proof in the pudding \u00bb.<\/p>\n

Pour Grantham la correction n\u00e9cessaire avait bien commenc\u00e9 en 2022 mais elle s\u2019est arr\u00eat\u00e9e avec la sortie de Chatgpt, tout le monde r\u00e9alisant que l\u2019IA allait changer le monde ce qui a permis de relancer le Nasdaq, puis le reste qui a suivi.<\/p>\n

Et l\u00e0 il fait un parall\u00e8le int\u00e9ressant : il y a presque deux si\u00e8cles, la r\u00e9volution dont tout le monde voyait qu\u2019elle allait changer le monde c\u2019\u00e9tait le train<\/u><\/strong>. Sur \u00e7a ils avaient raison. Et par cons\u00e9quent tout le monde investissait dans le secteur. Et ainsi, sur les 80km entre les deux centres \u00e9conomiques qu\u2019\u00e9taient Manchester et Leeds, le train arriva. Mais ce n\u2019est pas une, ni deux voies qui furent construites, mais six. Six voies ferr\u00e9es diff\u00e9rentes pour six compagnies diff\u00e9rentes sur le m\u00eame trajet alors qu\u2019il y avait du trafic pour deux, voire une. Evidemment tout le monde perdit sa chemise dans cette affaire.<\/p>\n

Est-ce que les presque $400 milliards que Microsoft, Amazon, Google et Meta vont investir cette ann\u00e9e dans l\u2019IA ne sont pas autant de voies ferr\u00e9es qui courent apr\u00e8s les m\u00eames clients sur les m\u00eames services ? Et comme le faisait remarquer Grantham, ces soci\u00e9t\u00e9s, qui avaient jusque l\u00e0 des sortes de monopole de fait dans leurs activit\u00e9s respectives, vont sur l\u2019IA lutter les unes avec les autres. Pas le m\u00eame jeu. Tout cela est-il compatible avec des valorisations au plus haut ? Vous pouvez \u00e9couter Grantham d\u2019une oreille distraite. Mais v\u00e9rifiez que vous \u00eates bien sangl\u00e9\u2026<\/p>\n

Have a good week<\/p>\n

Charles<\/p>\n

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Positions<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Au 4 Ao\u00fbt, Monocle (part A) est \u00e0 +4.13% sur 2025 et \u00e0 +4.08% en annualis\u00e9 sur 5 ans.<\/p>\n

2024: +1.14%
\n2023: +7.67%
\n2022: -1.92%
\n2021: +4.23%
\n2020: +6.44%<\/p>\n

Cette semaine r\u00e9duction de Cyberark apr\u00e8s la hausse due \u00e0 l\u2019offre d\u2019achat de Palo Alto. Ce fut un beau trade (+26% en quatre mois) mais, signe des temps, ces boites de cybers\u00e9curit\u00e9 sont devenues tellement ch\u00e8res que m\u00eame les industriels ne payent plus cash : Palo Alto offre pour chaque action Cyberark 2.2 actions Palo Alto et $45 en cash. Le jour de l\u2019annonce, Palo Alto valait $200 tout rond donc cela \u00e9quivalait \u00e0 $495 pour chaque action Cyberark. Mais le march\u00e9 n’a pas aim\u00e9 cette acquisition et PaloAlto cote d\u00e9sormais $170 ce qui implique $385. J\u2019ai vendu la moiti\u00e9 \u00e0 $415, je garde 0.5% pour le moment.<\/p>\n

R\u00e9duction \u00e9galement de Moderna avant les r\u00e9sultats ce qui est bien tomb\u00e9 puisque l\u2019action a perdu 15% apr\u00e8s publication \u2013 mais franchement elle \u00e9tait bonne cette publication donc pas m\u00e9rit\u00e9. Moderna fait d\u00e9sormais 1.7% du fonds.<\/p>\n

En pr\u00e9paration de l\u2019arriv\u00e9e du nouveau fonds \u2013 normalement fin septembre, je r\u00e9duis aussi au fil de l\u2019eau Galapagos qui est peu liquide. Elle remonte bien mais affiche toujours une valeur absurde (\u20ac1.9Md de market cap pour \u20ac3.1 Md de cash). La ligne vient de passer sous les 5% du fonds.<\/p>\n

Enfin j\u2019ai rajout\u00e9 une cuill\u00e8re de Duolingo, que nous avions sorti \u00e0 $516 fin mai et qui est tomb\u00e9 en ligne droite \u00e0 $336 sans nouvelle. Rerentr\u00e9 petit \u00e0 petit, d\u00e9sormais 1.6% du fonds. Publication demain.<\/p>\n

Avec tout cela l\u2019exposition action est de 20% – \u00e7a peut secouer, nous sommes bien sangl\u00e9s !<\/p>\n

Dernier point et je vous laisse tranquille : r\u00e9duction de l\u2019exposition au USD en passant sous les 10% : apr\u00e8s nous avoir mis RFK \u00e0 la Sant\u00e9, Trump peut nous mettre \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s n\u2019importe qui \u00e0 la Fed et \u00ab n\u2019importe qui \u00bb cela inclus m\u00eame son chien si celui s\u2019engage \u00e0 baisser les taux, toujours, quoi qu\u2019il arrive. Cela pourrait amener un soup\u00e7on de volatilit\u00e9 sur le dollar, soup\u00e7on que je vais laisser aux amateurs des man\u00e8ges de Marcel Champion.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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  La semaine derni\u00e8re je d\u00e9cide, apr\u00e8s plusieurs mois sans \u00eatre mont\u00e9 sur une selle, d\u2019accompagner mon p\u00e8re \u00e0 cheval. Le cheval en question, 5 ans, arrive directement…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5255,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - "LE BILLET SINON RIEN"<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - "LE BILLET SINON RIEN"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"  La semaine derni\u00e8re je d\u00e9cide, apr\u00e8s plusieurs mois sans \u00eatre mont\u00e9 sur une selle, d\u2019accompagner mon p\u00e8re \u00e0 cheval. 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