{"id":5270,"date":"2025-09-01T10:20:42","date_gmt":"2025-09-01T08:20:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5270"},"modified":"2025-09-01T10:20:42","modified_gmt":"2025-09-01T08:20:42","slug":"le-billet-passe-le-niemen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/09\/01\/le-billet-passe-le-niemen\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0LE BILLET PASSE LE NIEMEN\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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Connaissez-vous ce graphique r\u00e9alis\u00e9 en 1869 par Charles Joseph Minard ?<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Voici l\u2019arm\u00e9e napol\u00e9onienne [en caf\u00e9] \u00e0 l\u2019aller, forte de quatre cent mille hommes quand elle passe le Ni\u00e9men le 24 juin 1812. Au fur et \u00e0 mesure de son avanc\u00e9e, elle diminue en taille et ce ne seront plus que cent mille hommes qui atteindront Moscou trois mois plus tard. Sur le retour [en noir], c\u2019est l\u2019horreur de la retraite de Russie, avec la Berezina \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s au milieu o\u00f9 l\u2019arm\u00e9e restante est divis\u00e9e en deux. En d\u00e9cembre l\u2019arm\u00e9e fran\u00e7aise franchit le Ni\u00e9men dans l\u2019autre sens. Dix mille hommes sur les quatre cent milles du d\u00e9but. Le bas du graphique rajoute une information en donnant l\u2019\u00e9volution de la temp\u00e9rature pendant la retraite \u2013 il faisait -20\u00b0 dehors quand les pontonniers de l\u2019arm\u00e9e se mirent dans l\u2019eau jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la taille pour fabriquer de quoi faire passer le fleuve \u00e0 l\u2019arm\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

Edward Tufte, professeur \u00e0 Yale University dit dans son livre \u00ab Visual Display of Quantitative Information \u00bb (1983) que ce graphique est \u00ab probably the best statistical graphic ever drawn.\u00bb Et dans ce bouquin qui est la r\u00e9f\u00e9rence de la discipline Tufte explique qu\u2019un bon graphique c\u2019est cela : une fa\u00e7on de pr\u00e9senter l\u2019information qui fait que vous comprenez quelque chose que vous n\u2019auriez pas compris sans cela.<\/p>\n

La m\u00eame ann\u00e9e o\u00f9 Minard r\u00e9alisait ce graphique, sortait le \u00ab Guerre et Paix \u00bb de Tolsto\u00ef sur la m\u00eame campagne de Russie. Le livre fait mille six cents pages, et pourtant il parle moins que le graphique.<\/p>\n

Alors plut\u00f4t que de vous \u00e9crire un billet de mille six cents lignes, je suis les m\u00e9thodes de mon fr\u00e8re de nom et vous pr\u00e9sente donc ce graphique :<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Bon j\u2019ai bien conscience que les sp\u00e9cialistes de visualisation graphique ne vont pas se p\u00e2mer sur celui-ci mais tout de m\u00eame, le petit point rouge l\u00e0-haut, qui nous dit que, dans son ensemble, le march\u00e9 am\u00e9ricain est, l\u00e0 aujourd\u2019hui, \u00e0 son deuxi\u00e8me point le plus cher de son histoire apr\u00e8s le pic de 2000, c\u2019est un \u00e9l\u00e9ment \u00e0 avoir en t\u00eate.<\/p>\n

Bonne semaine<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Positions<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

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Au 28 Ao\u00fbt, Monocle (part A) est \u00e0 +4.71% sur 2025 et \u00e0 +3.97% en annualis\u00e9 sur 5 ans.<\/p>\n

2024: +1.14%<\/p>\n

2023: +7.67%<\/p>\n

2022: -1.92%<\/p>\n

2021: +4.23%<\/p>\n

2020: +6.44%<\/p>\n

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Abercrombie a publi\u00e9 de bons r\u00e9sultats mais pas suffisant pour exciter les foules. Apr\u00e8s une s\u00e9ance volatile, le titre est aujourd’hui 4% plus bas qu’avant la publication. Signe dans le bon sens: le short interest [ceux qui jouent le titre \u00e0 la baisse] descend. Je garde nos 1.6% du fonds pour le moment.<\/p>\n

Par contre Affirm a publi\u00e9 des r\u00e9sultats mieux qu’attendu et nous sommes \u00e0 l’instant \u00e0 +17% aujourd’hui. J’avais r\u00e9duit \u00e0 0.50% du fonds avant, car c’\u00e9tait cher. Les r\u00e9sultats sont tr\u00e8s bons mais cela devient tr\u00e8s cher. Une information importante: cette soci\u00e9t\u00e9 de 2200 personnes a doubl\u00e9 son activit\u00e9 en deux ans sans faire \u00e9voluer son nombre d’employ\u00e9s. De vraies questions de soci\u00e9t\u00e9 vont se poser sur l’\u00e9volution de l’emploi dans les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir.<\/p>\n

L’exposition action du fonds reste autour de 20% et nous avons 9% net en USD.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Connaissez-vous ce graphique r\u00e9alis\u00e9 en 1869 par Charles Joseph Minard ? 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