{"id":5284,"date":"2025-09-17T14:06:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T12:06:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5284"},"modified":"2025-09-17T14:06:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T12:06:08","slug":"what-about-this-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/09\/17\/what-about-this-one\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0What about this one ?\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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Bonjour,<\/p>\n

Nous restons avec Edward Tufte, le pape des graphiques, cette semaine :<\/p>\n

\u00ab L\u2019excellence pour un graphique c\u2019est de donner le plus grand nombre d\u2019id\u00e9es dans le plus court instant avec le moins d\u2019encre sur le plus petit espace possible.\u00bb<\/p>\n

Moi j\u2019ai une id\u00e9e \u00e0 vous donner, c\u2019est que ces march\u00e9s sont dangereux. Et si le PE de Shiller vous a laiss\u00e9 dubitatif, cette semaine j\u2019ai tripot\u00e9 les statistiques de marges de la FINRA, le r\u00e9gulateur am\u00e9ricain. Ces chiffres montrent la valeur totale des actifs achet\u00e9s sur marges.<\/p>\n

En absolu on vient de passer le trillion de USD \u2013 $1,022 Mds pour \u00eatre pr\u00e9cis – plus haut historique.<\/p>\n

Ajust\u00e9 de l\u2019inflation [graphique ci-dessous], on est proche du plus haut de $1,125 Mds d\u2019octobre 2021.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Vous les voyez les petits ronds rouges ? Mars 2000, juin 2007, juin 2018, octobre 2021. Le point commun de ces dates c\u2019est qu\u2019elles correspondent toutes \u00e0 des d\u00e9marrages de bonnes p\u00e9riodes d\u2019emmerdements si vous aviez beaucoup de jetons sur le tapis \u00e0 ce moment-l\u00e0.<\/p>\n

Changement d\u2019angle : ci-dessous l\u2019histogramme du changement sur trois mois de ce montant total de marges. Le dernier relev\u00e9 (\u00e0 fin juillet) \u00a0est le 10e plus important sur 27 ans. Le top du classement \u2013 les chiffres encore plus \u00e0 droite \u2013 ce sont janvier 2000, f\u00e9vrier 2000 et juin 2007 : on retrouve nos ronds rouges du graphique pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent.<\/p>\n

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Et alors sur la gauche \u2013 dans ce joli rose pimpant \u2013 nous avons novembre 2008, d\u00e9cembre 2008, janvier 2009 et d\u00e9cembre 2000.<\/p>\n

Moralit\u00e9 : quand dans un dernier \u00e9lan le niveau des marges grimpe fortement pour atteindre un plus haut, c\u2019est qu\u2019il est temps applique la m\u00e9thode bien connue du \u00ab Courage, fuyons ! \u00bb.<\/p>\n

Bonne semaine<\/p>\n

Charles<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Positions<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

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Au 3 Septembre, Monocle (part A) est \u00e0 +4.02% sur 2025 et \u00e0 +3.89% en annualis\u00e9 sur 5 ans.<\/p>\n

2024: +1.14%<\/p>\n

2023: +7.67%<\/p>\n

2022: -1.92%<\/p>\n

2021: +4.23%<\/p>\n

2020: +6.44%<\/p>\n

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Le fonds retourne vers les +4% cette semaine. Il y a Duolingo (1.1% du fonds) qui perd 12% en quelques jours: la responsable marketing est partie chez Doordash et un analyste a sabr\u00e9 ce matin l’objectif de cours de $500 \u00e0 $300. Je regarde de pr\u00e8s: Luis Von Ahn est un bon, il va trouver un moyen de redresser le tir.<\/p>\n

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Galapagos (4.5% du fonds), sans nouvelles, a gliss\u00e9 de 5% sur la semaine. J’ai un call pr\u00e9vu avec leur responsable investisseur dans les prochains jours, je vous dirai ce qu’il en ressort. Le probl\u00e8me avec Galapagos c’est que leur responsable marketing \u00e0 eux c’est le mime Marceau.<\/p>\n

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Dans l’autre sens Affirm (0.6% du fonds) a pris 7% sur la semaine et en reprend 6 ce soir. Tr\u00e8s belle boite mais \u00e7a devient cher.<\/p>\n

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L’exposition action du fonds reste autour de 20% et nous avons 8% net en USD. Vu la premi\u00e8re partie du billet, on ne va pas rempiler en actions juste maintenant !<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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