{"id":5305,"date":"2025-10-06T09:48:05","date_gmt":"2025-10-06T07:48:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5305"},"modified":"2025-10-06T09:48:05","modified_gmt":"2025-10-06T07:48:05","slug":"airtag-pour-grue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/10\/06\/airtag-pour-grue\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Airtag pour grue\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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Munger disait :\u00a0 \u201cThe best businesses are the ones that can be run by idiots, because sooner or later, they will be.<\/u>\u201d<\/p>\n

Malheureusement, si d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 son \u00e9poque la liste des business correspondant \u00e0 ce crit\u00e8re \u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0 courte, elle est encore en train de r\u00e9tr\u00e9cir.<\/p>\n

Il va donc falloir des gens brillants. De l’intelligence. Ce que Fran\u00e7ois Chollet, le polytechnicien de 35 ans qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 un des architectes de l\u2019intelligence artificielle chez Google, d\u00e9finit comme ce qui permet \u2013 encore \u2013 de faire la diff\u00e9rence entre l\u2019homme et la machine :<\/p>\n

\u00ab L’intelligence est la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 faire face \u00e0 l’inconnu, \u00e0 s’y adapter et \u00e0 en tirer des enseignements.<\/u> M\u00eame \u00e0 son meilleur niveau, l’automatisation ne peut g\u00e9rer que les situations pour lesquelles elle a \u00e9t\u00e9 form\u00e9e ou programm\u00e9e. C’est pourquoi la cr\u00e9ation d’une automatisation robuste est si difficile : elle n\u00e9cessite de prendre en compte tous les sc\u00e9narios possibles. Ne craignez donc pas que l’IA devienne soudainement consciente d’elle-m\u00eame et prenne le contr\u00f4le de l’humanit\u00e9. La technologie actuelle ne va tout simplement pas dans cette direction. \u00bb<\/p>\n

Je remercie notre Frenchie pour ce constat rassurant et en accord avec ce constat je cherche des gens qui correspondent \u00e0 ce signalement : Max Levchin chez Affirm, Chris Urmson chez Aurora, Luis von Ahn chez Duolingo, voil\u00e0 quelques exemples.<\/p>\n

Vendredi j\u2019ai rajout\u00e9 un nouveau nom \u00e0 la liste : Sanjit Biswas<\/u>. 43 ans, MIT, Stanford, Sanjit cr\u00e9e en 2006 Meraki sur les solutions r\u00e9seaux, que Google rach\u00e8te $1.2 Mds en 2012. \u00a0Apr\u00e8s cela il cr\u00e9e SAMSARA, celle qui nous occupe aujourd\u2019hui. SAMSARA c\u2019est le Internet-of-Things (\u00abIoT\u00bb)<\/u> ou les objets connect\u00e9s. Un peu comme Apple vous donne un Airtag pour suivre votre valise, Samsara donne \u00e0 Caterpillar les capteurs pour sa flotte de grues et de bulldozers. Le business affiche une belle croissance \u2013 le chiffre d\u2019affaires est pass\u00e9 de $120M en 2020 \u00e0 $1,440 sur les douze derniers mois. Le r\u00e9sultat n\u2019est pas encore positif mais on s\u2019en approche. Il reste la valorisation : $22 Mds \u00e0 hier soir, soit 14x les ventes. M\u00eame si, comme vous le voyez sur le graphique ci-dessous, j\u2019ai attendu que ce multiple \u2013 en jaune \u2013 se calme un peu pour rentrer, \u00e7a reste tr\u00e8s cher. Donc mis un pied dedans (0.5%) vendredi, et on va regarder comment \u00e7a \u00e9volue.<\/p>\n

Jamais facile de bien s\u00e9lectionner les points d\u2019entr\u00e9e. Un indice suppl\u00e9mentaire pour ce faire: la volatilit\u00e9 sur ce titre (45%) est au plus bas depuis deux ans. Comme celle-ci a une propri\u00e9t\u00e9 de \u00ab retour \u00e0 la moyenne \u00bb , c\u2019est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement le signe d\u2019un mouvement important \u00e0 venir dans les prochaines semaines.<\/u><\/p>\n

[Pour ceux que cela int\u00e9resse, Nvidia affiche la m\u00eame particularit\u00e9 en ce moment.]<\/u><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n
 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Positions<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Au 29 Septembre, Monocle (part A) est \u00e0 +4.64% sur 2025 et \u00e0 +3.81% en annualis\u00e9 sur 5 ans.<\/p>\n

2024: +1.14%<\/p>\n

2023: +7.67%<\/p>\n

2022: -1.92%<\/p>\n

2021: +4.23%<\/p>\n

2020: +6.44%<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sur les dix jours Affirm a perdu 15% – elle \u00e9tait beaucoup mont\u00e9e et on avait bien r\u00e9duit – et Bumble 12%. En face Duolingo a repris +14% \u00e0 $329, nous avons bien fait de renforcer \u00e0 $280.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

L’exposition action reste limit\u00e9e \u00e0 22% car tous les signaux de survalorisation sont au rouge: le PE de Schiller vient de passer 40 – plus haut depuis 25 ans – et les spreads de credit sont au plus bas depuis 18 ans. Ces indicateurs disent qu’il sera dur d’aller plus haut mais facile d’aller (nettement) plus bas<\/u>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Et pour tous les adeptes d’ETF, d’indice et de gestion passive, si vous \u00eates investis aujourd’hui dans des indices pond\u00e9r\u00e9s par la capitalisation, vous \u00eates sur des supports qui n’ont rien \u00e0 voir avec ce qu’ils \u00e9taient il y a 5 ou 10 ans car la concentration a beaucoup augment\u00e9 – au plus haut niveau depuis 20 ans \u00e9galement. Pour paraphraser Howard Marks, c’est dans ce genre de contexte qu’on fait les pires investissements.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Munger disait :\u00a0 \u201cThe best businesses are the ones that can be run by idiots, because sooner or later, they will be.\u201d Malheureusement, si d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 son \u00e9poque…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5306,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - "Airtag pour grue"<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - "Airtag pour grue"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Munger disait :\u00a0 \u201cThe best businesses are the ones that can be run by idiots, because sooner or later, they will be.\u201d Malheureusement, si d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 son \u00e9poque...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/10\/06\/airtag-pour-grue\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Monocle\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-10-06T07:48:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/istockphoto-1323030556-612x612-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"612\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"408\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/10\\\/06\\\/airtag-pour-grue\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/10\\\/06\\\/airtag-pour-grue\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"L'\u00e9quipe Monocle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f095305e6c0f0cb67a0905de33670595\"},\"headline\":\"\u00ab\u00a0Airtag pour grue\u00a0\u00bb\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-10-06T07:48:05+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/10\\\/06\\\/airtag-pour-grue\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":662,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/10\\\/06\\\/airtag-pour-grue\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/10\\\/istockphoto-1323030556-612x612-1.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Les Billets de Monocle\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/10\\\/06\\\/airtag-pour-grue\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/monocle.lu\\\/2025\\\/10\\\/06\\\/airtag-pour-grue\\\/\",\"name\":\"Monocle - 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