{"id":5311,"date":"2025-10-09T14:03:23","date_gmt":"2025-10-09T12:03:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5311"},"modified":"2025-10-09T14:03:23","modified_gmt":"2025-10-09T12:03:23","slug":"un-statisticien-prend-une-douche","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/10\/09\/un-statisticien-prend-une-douche\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Un statisticien prend une douche…\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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Prenant une douche dans un camping masculin de mille personnes, un statisticien voyant rentrer une douzaine de types mesurant plus de 2m se dit que la taille moyenne des occupants du camping est mont\u00e9e de 20 mm \u2013 [les maths sont justes, vous pouvez v\u00e9rifier et j\u2019ai mis \u00ab masculin \u00bb pour simplifier lesdites maths, n\u2019allez pas imaginer des choses\u2026] Un individu normal se dit lui, \u00e0 cette vision, que le bus de la NBA \u00a0a fait escale dans le camping (la taille moyenne des joueurs de la NBA pour la saison 2024-2025 c\u2019est 2,01m, avec 2,24m pour le fran\u00e7ais Victor Wembanyama).<\/p>\n

C\u2019est pareil sur les march\u00e9s : la plupart des analyses macro sont des observations de grands ensembles dont il est difficile de tirer des enseignements clairs. A contrario, un stock picker lui, regarde ses titres un par un. Et s\u2019il observe simultan\u00e9ment plusieurs comportements pas ordinaires, cela le fait tiquer nettement plus vite que le statisticien.<\/p>\n

Depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e quatre titres du portefeuille ont plus que doubl\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Nous avions pris du LIGHTPATH \u00e0 $3.00, cela vaut $9.3 aujourd\u2019hui ; du OKLO \u00e0 $24, cela vaut $140 ; du NOVAGOLD \u00e0 $2.6, cela vaut $9.7 et du OUSTER \u00e0 $8.0, cela vaut $32.0 \u2013 vous retrouverez un billet sur chacun de ces titres dans vos archives.<\/p>\n

Alors je veux bien que ces histoires aient eu du vent dans les voiles \u2013 c\u2019\u00e9tait notre th\u00e8se ! ; que Trump soit favorable \u00e0 une compagnie d\u2019armement am\u00e9ricaine (LIGHTPATH) ; que la hausse de l\u2019or b\u00e9n\u00e9ficie \u00e0 NOVAGOLD ou que le lidar (OUSTER) et le nucl\u00e9aire (OKLO) soient des th\u00e8mes \u00e0 la mode.<\/p>\n

Mais les maths ne collent pas avec les valorisations atteintes.<\/p>\n

Au cours d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui OKLO vaut $20Mds. Si tout va bien, OKLO aura dans une dizaine d\u2019ann\u00e9es, une soixantaine de centrales qui g\u00e9n\u00e8reront entre $1mds et $2mds de revenus. D\u00e9j\u00e0 maigre pour soutenir $20 Mds de valo. Mais en plus, aujourd\u2019hui OKLO n\u2019a aucune centrale. OKLO n\u2019a d\u2019ailleurs m\u00eame pas la licence pour construire une centrale. Et c\u00f4t\u00e9 bilan on a $0.7 Mds de cash. Il va falloir des sous pour construire ces centrales. Augmentation de capital ?..\u00a0\u00bbChers actionnaires, \u00e0 votre bon coeur..\u00a0\u00bb..<\/p>\n

OUSTER, apr\u00e8s avoir tripl\u00e9 en six mois, vaut $1.9Mds. Sur le dernier trimestre OUSTER a vendu pour $35M de Lidar, contre $27M l\u2019ann\u00e9e d\u2019avant. Je rajoute $8M de chiffre d’affaires et ma valeur prend $1.2 Mds.. Roule ma poule..<\/p>\n

Enfin NOVAGOLD, qui a pour seul actif la mine Donlin Gold, a commenc\u00e9 son d\u00e9collage en avril quand BARRICK, qui d\u00e9tenait l\u2019autre moiti\u00e9 de la mine, lui a vendu sa participation sur un prix qui correspondait \u00e0 une valeur de $3.00 pour l\u2019action NOVAGOLD. Je veux bien que l\u2019or soit pass\u00e9 de $3200 \u00e0 $4000 depuis lors. Mais n\u00e9anmoins le boss de BARRICK sur ce deal c\u2019est Mark Bristow, qui est une l\u00e9gende de l\u2019industrie \u2013 ce qui n\u2019est pas le cas des gars de NOVAGOLD. S\u00fbr de vouloir \u00eatre long de ce titre \u00e0 $9.3 aujourd’hui sachant que ce gars-l\u00e0 en est sorti \u00e0 $3.00 en avril?<\/p>\n

Nous venons donc de voir arriver dans nos douches le 4ieme type de plus de deux m\u00e8tres de haut. Le statisticien dirait \u00ab\u00a0anomalie statistique.\u00a0\u00bb Moi je dis,\u00a0 paraphrasant notre ami Trump:<\/p>\n

Is this not the sign of the \u00ab\u00a0Triple B\u00a0\u00bb, the \u00ab\u00a0BBB\u00a0\u00bb , the \u00ab Big Beautiful Bubble \u00bb ?<\/p>\n

Bonne semaine<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Positions<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

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Au 6 Octobre, Monocle (part A) est \u00e0 +4.77% sur 2025 et \u00e0 +3.63% en annualis\u00e9 sur 5 ans.<\/p>\n

2024: +1.14%<\/p>\n

2023: +7.67%<\/p>\n

2022: -1.92%<\/p>\n

2021: +4.23%<\/p>\n

2020: +6.44%<\/p>\n

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Peu de changements sur la semaine \u00e9coul\u00e9e, ni dans les march\u00e9s ni dans le portefeuille. Pr\u00e9cision subsidiaire par rapport au billet ci-dessus : comme un bon vieil investisseur value que je reste – m\u00eame si je traite des noms volatils comme ceux cit\u00e9s plus haut – j’ai sorti ces noms \u00e0 chaque fois au moment o\u00f9, m\u00eame en arrosant mon mod\u00e8le de beaucoup d’optimisme, je ne trouvais plus de quoi justifier la valeur. Je rerentrerai si l’ambiance change – comme sur Duolingo r\u00e9cemment.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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