{"id":5320,"date":"2025-11-10T09:46:54","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T08:46:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5320"},"modified":"2025-11-10T09:46:54","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T08:46:54","slug":"le-billet-quon-nattendait-plus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/11\/10\/le-billet-quon-nattendait-plus\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a0Le Billet qu’on n’attendait plus…\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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Dans le Pacha (1968), il y a cette sc\u00e8ne o\u00f9 le commissaire (Gabin) qui enqu\u00eate sur la mort de son ami, va interroger un truand. Et quand celui-ci lui demande s’il savait que son ami sortait avec la soeur d’un voyou, Gabin r\u00e9pond: \u00ab\u00a0Non, mais on est l\u00e0 pour apprendre<\/strong>.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

Elle est revenue me tintinnabuler dans la t\u00eate mercredi soir cette rubrique. Je revenais de BFM o\u00f9 j’\u00e9tais all\u00e9 parler de SEB. Et mon billet \u00e9tait pr\u00eat sur le m\u00eame sujet: l’action pass\u00e9e de \u20ac150 en 2021 \u00e0 \u20ac50 ces jours ci, son cours d’il y a quinze ans. La participation de SEB dans le groupe chinois SUPOR, qui \u00e0 elle seule vaut \u20ac4 Mds alors que la capitalisation de SEB est de \u20ac2.6B. Le portefeuille de marque -Moulinex, Tefal, Rowenta, Krups, Calor, Pacojet – un sorte de LVMH des arts m\u00e9nagers. Et des difficult\u00e9s qui me semblent plus conjoncturelles que structurelles – une amende des autorit\u00e9s de la concurrence de \u20ac195M en d\u00e9cembre \u2013 soutenons nos champions fran\u00e7ais ! ; la d\u00e9flation en Chine ; les droits de douanes etc\u2026 Donc j’ach\u00e8te du SEB, je r\u00e9dige le billet et je vais chez BFM expliquer tout cela.<\/p>\n

C’est quand le journaliste Julien Marion me demande :<\/p>\n

\u00ab Mais Charles, que pensez-vous de la concurrence de SharkNinja ?<\/strong> \u00bb<\/p>\n

qu’une particule de doute s’immisce dans mon raisonnement. Sur le moment je r\u00e9ponds que le leader c\u2019est SEB.<\/p>\n

Mais en rentrant j\u2019ouvre les comptes de SharkNinja et je lis<\/p>\n

\u00ab Ventes 2024 : +30% \u00bb.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Je recherche l\u2019acquisition qui explique cette hausse. R\u00e9ponse : pas d\u2019acquisition, croissance organique<\/strong>. J\u2019\u00e9coute deux interviews du fondateur Marc Berrocas, je retourne dans les comptes et j\u2019en sors ces deux chiffres :<\/p>\n

– \u00a0 A $350M \u00a0le budget de R&D<\/strong> de SharkNinja est le double<\/strong> de celui de SEB.
\n– \u00a0 A $700M le budget de marketing<\/strong> de SharkNinja est le quadruple<\/strong> de celui de SEB.<\/p>\n

SharkNinja a doubl\u00e9 de taille en quatre ans. Et au Q2 SEB fait -11% aux US, suivi de -14% au Q3. En face SharkNinja fait +13% au Q2 \u2013 le Q3 n\u2019est pas encore sorti.<\/p>\n

\u00c7a ce n\u2019est pas conjoncturel. Et je ne sais pas si SEB pourra ou non y faire face \u2013 \u00a0sa dette de \u20ac2.9B et son dividende annuel de \u20ac190M ne vont pas aider \u2013 mais je sais surtout que ce n\u2019est plus ma th\u00e8se initiale.Et ce m\u00e9tier m\u2019a appris que rester dans un dossier quand la th\u00e8se initiale est invalid\u00e9e, c\u2019est un plan foireux.<\/p>\n

Par cons\u00e9quent U-Turn<\/strong> : vente des SEB et achat de 1% de SharkNinja \u2013 PE de 20, publie jeudi.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Positions<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Au 31 Octobre, Monocle (part A) est \u00e0 +3.96% sur 2025 et \u00e0 +5.21% en annualis\u00e9 sur 3 ans.<\/p>\n

2024: +1.14%
\n2023: +7.67%
\n2022: -1.92%
\n2021: +4.23%
\n2020: +6.44%<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sur cette saison de r\u00e9sultats le march\u00e9 continue d’\u00eatre tir\u00e9 par les m\u00eames noms. Et \u00e0 force de tirer beaucoup d’\u00e9lastiques sont bien tendus cf graph ci-dessous sur le niveau des marges (FINRA)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sur le fonds Duolingo<\/strong> a reperdu 19% dans la semaine sur rien. J’ai renforc\u00e9 la ligne \u00e0 2% aujourd’hui. Luis Von Ahn est un tr\u00e8s bon et j’aime ce point d’entr\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Moderna <\/strong>a fait le buzz malgr\u00e9 elle avec un grand article de Statnews mentionnant que la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 avait eu des discussions M&A avec au moins un grand labo. L’action a pris +14% sur cette nouvelle, dont elle rend un bout aujourd’hui. Je retiens de cette longue enqu\u00eate que m\u00eame si Bancel a des d\u00e9fauts, beaucoup saluent sa vision. Et ces phrases de Florian Krammer, vaccinologue \u00e0 l\u2019Icahn School of Medicine du Mount Sinai :<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00ab Moderna est extr\u00eamement importante<\/strong>. Si l\u2019entreprise arr\u00eate sa recherche sur l’ARN, nous perdons beaucoup. <\/strong>Nous perdons beaucoup dans la recherche acad\u00e9mique, dans le d\u00e9veloppement de produits et dans l\u2019innovation.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

Je fais confiance \u00e0 Bancel – qui n’a rien vendu depuis que l’action est sous les $80 et vient de faire voter un plan pour r\u00e9duire les prix d’exercices des options de l’\u00e9quipe \u00e0 $80 – \u00e0 comparer au $25 du cours actuel.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Enfin Grindr<\/strong>, le concurrent trois fois plus petit de Bumble<\/strong>, a re\u00e7u une offre de rachat par ses actionnaires majoritaires \u00e0 trois fois la valeur de Bumble. Trois fois trois \u00e9gal neuf.<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/p>\n

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