{"id":5418,"date":"2025-12-09T12:59:17","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T11:59:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5418"},"modified":"2025-12-09T12:59:17","modified_gmt":"2025-12-09T11:59:17","slug":"96","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2025\/12\/09\/96\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab\u00a096\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ce graphique du niveau de marges ramen\u00e9 \u00e0 masse mon\u00e9taire \u2013 pour qu\u2019on compare des pommes avec des pommes \u2013 m\u2019obs\u00e8de. Je le triture, je le retourne. Je l\u2019am\u00e8ne \u00e0 Guillaume* qui me r\u00e9pond avec son esprit de matheux \u00ab\u00a0int\u00e9ressant mais quatre points en stats, \u00e7a ne vaut rien.\u00a0\u00bb J\u2019ai r\u00e9fl\u00e9chi \u00e0 sa r\u00e9ponse\u00a0: en 1940, pour le passage des Allemands par les Ardennes, Gamelin n\u2019avait qu\u2019un seul point, celui de 1914. Ca ne faisait pas des stats non plus, et il a perdu le pays en six semaines.<\/p>\n

Et puis je viens de me coltiner les 592 pages de \u00ab\u00a01929\u00a0\u00bb, le nouveau livre d\u2019Andrew Ross Sorkin \u2013 celui qui avait \u00e9crit \u00ab\u00a0Too Big To Fail\u00a0\u00bb sur la crise de 2008. J\u2019en retiens trois choses\u00a0:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Jusqu\u2019au krach d\u2019octobre 1929, les march\u00e9s avaient connu des hausses tr\u00e8s fortes (1927 : +37%, 1928 +44%). C\u2019\u00e9tait du \u00e0 une \u00e9conomie qui se portait tr\u00e8s bien mais aussi \u00e0 la hausse des multiples : le PE de Shiller avait atteint 31 en ao\u00fbt 1929<\/span>.<\/li>\n
  2. Le niveau de levier \u00e9tait tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9<\/span>.<\/li>\n
  3. \u00a0Le march\u00e9 \u00e9tait concentr\u00e9 sur les stars de l\u2019\u00e9poque<\/span> (US Steel, General Motors, etc\u2026).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Un presque si\u00e8cle – 96 ans- plus tard, nous sortons de trois grosses ann\u00e9es, le PE de Shiller est \u00e0 40 ( !) et le march\u00e9 est focalis\u00e9 sur les stars du jour (Nvidia, Google etc..).<\/p>\n

    Et pour le levier, il suffit de regarder, \u00e0 nouveau, le graphique de la FINRA ci-dessus.<\/p>\n

    Guillaume vous dira que tout cela ne fait toujours pas des stats. Mais n\u00e9anmoins c\u2019est un peu comme votre bagnole\u00a0: quand il y a un gros voyant orange qui clignote, ce n\u2019est sans doute pas le meilleur moment pour pousser le compte-tour dans le rouge.<\/p>\n

    Performance<\/span><\/p>\n

    Au 5 D\u00e9cembre, Monocle (part A) est \u00e0 +3.26% sur 2025 et \u00e0 +4.03% en annualis\u00e9 sur 3 ans.<\/p>\n

    2024: +1.14%
    \n2023: +7.67%
    \n2022: -1.92%
    \n2021: +4.23%
    \n2020: +6.44%<\/p>\n

    Excellente semaine<\/p>\n

    Charles<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    * Guillaume Dolisi, fondateur de VIA AM, o\u00f9 j\u2019am\u00e8ne mes fonds le 30 janvier<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Ce graphique du niveau de marges ramen\u00e9 \u00e0 masse mon\u00e9taire \u2013 pour qu\u2019on compare des pommes avec des pommes \u2013 m\u2019obs\u00e8de. Je le triture, je le retourne. Je…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5420,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-le-billet-de-monocle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMonocle - "96"<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monocle - "96"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ce graphique du niveau de marges ramen\u00e9 \u00e0 masse mon\u00e9taire \u2013 pour qu\u2019on compare des pommes avec des pommes \u2013 m\u2019obs\u00e8de. Je le triture, je le retourne. 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