{"id":5599,"date":"2026-05-19T18:38:31","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T16:38:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/?p=5599"},"modified":"2026-05-19T18:38:31","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T16:38:31","slug":"la-revanche-du-billet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monocle.lu\/en\/2026\/05\/19\/la-revanche-du-billet\/","title":{"rendered":"La Revanche du Billet"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dans les noms que vous d\u00e9couvrez ici chaque semaine \u00ab\u00a0Sebastian Siemiatkowski\u00a0\u00bb en un est \u00e0 retenir. Il est n\u00e9 en Su\u00e8de mais si \u00e7a sonne polonais c\u2019est parce que ses parents ne sont arriv\u00e9s en Su\u00e8de qu\u2019en 1980, un an avant sa naissance. Avec comme mod\u00e8les Richard Branson et Ingvar Kamprad (le fondateur d\u2019IKEA) il a d\u00e9marr\u00e9 Klarna \u00e0 23 ans.<\/p>\n

Beaucoup d\u2019entrepreneurs se sont essay\u00e9s avec difficult\u00e9s \u00e0 attaquer le secteur de la finance peupl\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9phants agiles (BNP comme JP Morgan ont chacune plus de deux si\u00e8cles d\u2019existence) et de r\u00e9gulateurs trapus \u2013 je me souviens de l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 2016 o\u00f9 l\u2019action Lending Club avait perdu 50% en une seule journ\u00e9e \u00e0 la suite de l\u2019\u00e9jection de son fondateur Renaud Laplanche. Donc je regarde toujours avec respect les quelques-uns qui y arrivent, comme Max Levchin chez Affirm ou celui qui nous pr\u00e9occupe aujourd\u2019hui.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Klarna a trois lignes de m\u00e9tiers aujourd\u2019hui\u00a0: le Buy Now Pay Later, la carte et les pr\u00eats. Pour le premier il s\u2019agit de d\u00e9couper un paiement comme l\u2019achat d\u2019une paire de baskets en 4 paiements sans int\u00e9r\u00eat, avec un co\u00fbt support\u00e9 non par le client mais par le marchand. La seconde est un moyen physique de d\u00e9velopper le premier dans le monde r\u00e9el. Le troisi\u00e8me est l\u2019extension du premier sur du vrai cr\u00e9dit consommation mais on reste toujours sur du court terme (majoritairement moins d\u2019un an).<\/p>\n

Au-del\u00e0 de l\u2019existant, il faut voir Klarna comme de la tech qui attaque le secteur de la finance. Apple n\u2019avait pas encore l\u2019Iphone il y a vingt ans mais d\u00e9j\u00e0 beaucoup des ingr\u00e9dients pour y aller. De la m\u00eame mani\u00e8re Klarna, qui a d\u00e9j\u00e0 la licence bancaire, attaque l\u2019ensemble de la sph\u00e8re des secteurs financiers des particuliers en m\u00eame temps.<\/p>\n

Introduite en bourse il y a six mois sur une valeur de $16 Mds, l\u2019action s\u2019est fait d\u00e9couper \u00e0 la tron\u00e7onneuse pour atteindre $5.9 Mds aujourd\u2019hui \u2013 et pass\u00e9e sous les $5.0 Mds fin mars. Les march\u00e9s cot\u00e9s sont parfois plus excessifs que le private equity\u00a0: les valorisations de Klarna dans les pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents tours de tables furent de $5.5 Mds en 2019\u00a0; $10.6 Mds en 2020\u00a0; $31.0 Mds puis $46.0 Mds en 2021 et en fin $ 6.7 Mds en 2022 – jolie baisse certes mais \u00e0 un moment o\u00f9 le Nasdaq \u00e9tait en baisse de 30% et personne n\u2019arrivait \u00e0 lever un fifrelin. Donc Klarna vaut aujourd\u2019hui moins que son pire tour il y a quatre ans.<\/p>\n

Op\u00e9rationnellement \u00e7a donne quoi\u00a0: Klarna a publi\u00e9 jeudi dernier \u2013 et l\u2019action a repris +20% dans la s\u00e9ance, on ne va pas se laisser abattre \u2013 en affichant une croissance de son chiffre d\u2019affaires net de +45% et un r\u00e9sultat op\u00e9rationnel ajust\u00e9 sur le trimestre de $65M. Le volume d\u2019achat trait\u00e9 par Klarna sur le trimestre fut de $34 Mds, en hausse de +33%. Le taux de d\u00e9faut sur les pr\u00eats \u2013 m\u00e9trique importante quand vous faites du cr\u00e9dit -reste faible et stable\u00a0: garder en t\u00eate que Klarna a une connaissance beaucoup plus fine du comportement de ses clients qu\u2019une banque classique\u00a0: votre banque sait que le 14 mars vous avez d\u00e9pens\u00e9 49.50 EUR sur Amazon. Klarna sait ce qu\u2019il y a derri\u00e8re cette d\u00e9pense et ce que vous avez regard\u00e9, \u00e9tudi\u00e9, \u00e9cart\u00e9 etc.. pour y arriver. Avec cette connaissance ils \u00e9valuent plus finement votre risque de cr\u00e9dit.<\/p>\n

Leur techno leur permet \u00e9galement d\u2019ajuster en temps r\u00e9el leurs conditions de cr\u00e9dit, et comme leurs pr\u00eats sont \u00e0 court terme, ils ajustent vite\u00a0: Siemiatkowski l\u2019a rappel\u00e9 pendant le call jeudi\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0En soixante jours la moiti\u00e9 de notre bilan passe \u00e0 nos nouveaux standards de cr\u00e9dit.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

Enfin ce sont uns des premiers utilisateurs de l\u2019IA. Klarna suit l\u2019IA depuis le d\u00e9but, avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 un accord avec OpenAI il y a trois ans, ont d\u00e9fray\u00e9 la chronique en disant qu\u2019ils n\u2019avaient besoin que de tr\u00e8s peu embaucher malgr\u00e9 leur croissance \u2013 discours peu populaire donc d\u00e9sormais mis sous le manteau \u2013 mais cela en fait un concurrent tr\u00e8s agile pour aller attaquer tel un tigre les \u00e9l\u00e9phants cit\u00e9s plus haut.<\/p>\n

Affirm est sur le m\u00eame segment et Levchin est tr\u00e8s bon mais elle vaut $21 Mds \u2013 pour des chiffres similaires en ordre de grandeur. On est par cons\u00e9quent pragmatiques\u00a0: il y a 4.90% de Klarna dans le Monocle Long\/Short \u2013 contre 2.90% d\u2019Affirm \u2013 et il en reste un peu moins de 1% dans Monocle Patrimonial (qui est \u00e0 -1.25% depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e).<\/p>\n

En performance Monocle Patrimonial a repris +3.06% depuis la fusion le 19 mars pour venir \u00e0 -1.25% (part A) \u00e0 hier soir. Le Long\/Short lui a repris +4.27% depuis sa fusion qui a eu lieu le 16 avril \u2013 ce n\u2019est pas le m\u00eame moteur sous le capot mais pas le m\u00eame but non plus.<\/p>\n

Et ci-dessous la factsheet de chaque fonds :<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.via-am.com\/sites\/default\/files\/media\/document\/2026-05\/VIA-Monocle-Monthly-Factsheet-EUR-FR-April.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.via-am.com\/sites\/default\/files\/media\/document\/2026-05\/VIA-Monocle-LS-Monthly-Factsheet-EUR-FR-April.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bonne semaine et retenez bien\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0Siemiatkowski\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Charles<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dans les noms que vous d\u00e9couvrez ici chaque semaine \u00ab\u00a0Sebastian Siemiatkowski\u00a0\u00bb en un est \u00e0 retenir. 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